[Concerned1]

I think it's time for us all to get real about this Peak Oil issue. I've noticed something about westerners (and I'm one) in general and Americans in particular. We're whiners! Half the world is starving and we're crying about having to pay another 50 cents per gallon for gas. American's have it made compared to the bulk of the world in regards to our standard of living. Maybe too good because when everything is going along as well as it has here for last several decades, when our every want can by met with just a flick of the credit-card carrying wrist, when our biggest decision on any typical day may concern whether we're going to eat in or out, even the smallest inconvience feels like a catastrophe! Next thing you know we're spilling our guts out on some talk show about how terrible our lives are, sucking up for sympathy while people in other countries are trying to figure out were they're going to get their next meal. I agree with Matt Simmons about that. We're spoiled rotten.

First off, we're not running out of oil now or anytime soon! There's plenty of it left. When they've put oil rigs in our backyards and those begin to run dry, then we will have tried everything and we can say that we're running out, not before! I was guilty of worrying about peak oil too when the price at the pump started going up, but after a little more research, I know better now. Just look at all the articles posted here (and often ridiculed out of hand) that speak of this or that new find. And we're looking for more at an unprecedented rate. But even if we find that the amount the world wants is less than it can temporarily produce, so what! We're not going to starve to death! The oil generation only started really getting going about 1950 - 1960. Before that, most people lived just fine without oil. So we have to start pedalling bicycles again. Hell, we're too fat as it is! It'd do us a world of good to get off our butts and start riding bicycles.

If we began to have an oil depletion problem, the gov't could easily circumvent any potential food shortages by simply allowing only food related industries, that is, agriculture and food transportation to use fuel while we stick to pedalling. Problem solved. Sure, things might seem a bit inconvienent at the beginning, but we'd adapt. We always have and we always will!

One other thing. Some of the Peak Oil gurus we've been crooning over, people like James Howard Kunstler, what are their credentials? He was the adamant voice behind the Y2k scare and where did that get us? We became a laughing stock to the rest of the world. When they see us, they see people who have way too much time on our hands. Time to concoct all kinds of conspiracy theories and witch hunts. While I too would love to live in the Willoughby world that Kunstler writes about, it's not going to happen! For me or you or anyone else. We can never go back to that kind of 'idylic life' so we might just as well get used to it. And for those people who seem to want things to get worse in our country, who are these people anyway? I mean, do they come from the mid west or the middle east? Really, who wants things to get worse? The fact is this, our world is going to continue trudging along just as it always has, dragging itself from one crisis to another, staying just a step ahead of the apocalypse, becoming ever more hectic and miserable and somehow out of all that doom and gloom, we'll survive, albiet a good deal less happily than Huckleberry Finn. Get used to it.

[Ludi]

Do you bicycle to work?

Just curious.

[americandream]

I think it's time for us all to get real about this Peak Oil issue. I've noticed something about westerners (and I'm one) in general and Americans in particular. We're whiners! Half the world is starving and we're crying about having to pay another 50 cents per gallon for gas. American's have it made compared to the bulk of the world in regards to our standard of living. Maybe too good because when everything is going along as well as it has here for last several decades, when our every want can by met with just a flick of the credit-card carrying wrist, when our biggest decision on any typical day may concern whether we're going to eat in or out, even the smallest inconvience feels like a catastrophe! Next thing you know we're spilling our guts out on some talk show about how terrible our lives are, sucking up for sympathy while people in other countries are trying to figure out were they're going to get their next meal. I agree with Matt Simmons about that. We're spoiled rotten.

First off, we're not running out of oil now or anytime soon! There's plenty of it left. When they've put oil rigs in our backyards and those begin to run dry, then we will have tried everything and we can say that we're running out, not before! I was guilty of worrying about peak oil too when the price at the pump started going up, but after a little more research, I know better now. Just look at all the articles posted here (and often ridiculed out of hand) that speak of this or that new find. And we're looking for more at an unprecedented rate. But even if we find that the amount the world wants is less than it can temporarily produce, so what! We're not going to starve to death! The oil generation only started really getting going about 1950 - 1960. Before that, most people lived just fine without oil. So we have to start pedalling bicycles again. Hell, we're too fat as it is! It'd do us a world of good to get off our butts and start riding bicycles.

If we began to have an oil depletion problem, the gov't could easily circumvent any potential food shortages by simply allowing only food related industries, that is, agriculture and food transportation to use fuel while we stick to pedalling. Problem solved. Sure, things might seem a bit inconvienent at the beginning, but we'd adapt. We always have and we always will!

One other thing. Some of the Peak Oil gurus we've been crooning over, people like James Howard Kunstler, what are their credentials? He was the adamant voice behind the Y2k scare and where did that get us? We became a laughing stock to the rest of the world. When they see us, they see people who have way too much time on our hands. Time to concoct all kinds of conspiracy theories and witch hunts. While I too would love to live in the Willoughby world that Kunstler writes about, it's not going to happen! For me or you or anyone else. We can never go back to that kind of 'idylic life' so we might just as well get used to it. And for those people who seem to want things to get worse in our country, who are these people anyway? I mean, do they come from the mid west or the middle east? Really, who wants things to get worse? The fact is this, our world is going to continue trudging along just as it always has, dragging itself from one crisis to another, staying just a step ahead of the apocalypse, becoming ever more hectic and miserable and somehow out of all that doom and gloom, we'll survive, albiet a good deal less happily than Huckleberry Finn. Get used to it.

I'm just not sure what your point is? There are those who are happy with the status quo as it is and prefer to go about their daily lives. There are those who have a point of view, are dissatisfied with the status quo and decide to take a stand. I'm not entirely sure that there is a group in between, unless perhaps for the fence sitters.

Peak oil ideologues are clearly not happy with the status quo. They come from all walks of life and many countries across the globe. And they are, as I can see, exercising a right to express their view, something I am sure you would agree with.

[Ludi]

albiet a good deal less happily than Huckleberry Finn.

Geez, Huck Finn was a homeless kid with a drunk for a father.

Are you saying we'll all be worse off than a homeless kid?

[seahorse]

Yes, you're right. We aren't running low on oil. But when we get to the point, as you suggest, that the gov't only allows oil for food related industries we have left democracy behind and reverted back to feudalism. How fun is that?

[timmac]

cocerned 1 wrote :

If we began to have an oil depletion problem, the gov't could easily circumvent any potential food shortages by simply allowing only food related industries, that is, agriculture and food transportation to use fuel while we stick to pedalling. Problem solved. Sure, things might seem a bit inconvienent at the beginning, but we'd adapt. We always have and we always will!


my reply :

Yea we will adapt,, but how many will be unemployed,, when we changed from the horse and buggy to auto's there was more people needed to make auto's and all the spin off company's for aftermarket items for auto's, tires, gas stations, mech, etc, etc, where will they work, do you have any idea how many people are employeed by the huge auto industrial system,, [millions],, how about drive thru coffe shops, drive thru fast foods, hotels on highways,, the list goes on and on,, if we all overnight went to bicycles or over a 6 month period the unemployment rate would be around 50%,, crime rate would rocket up,, people by the millions will be starving, homless, etc, etc, Yes a few will adapt but the rest well thats another story,, China has adapted with bicycles,, we have adapted with cheap oil and autos, take that away and America will turn into a 3rd world country..... [World population, 7 billion by 2015]

[mark]

okay,

you're a new guy, so we'll all cut you some slack. However, learn a little before you post such drivel. Otherwise, people around here will rightfully think you're an idiot

[HEADER_RACK]

okay,

you're a new guy, so we'll all cut you some slack. However, learn a little before you post such drivel. Otherwise, people around here will rightfully think you're an idiot

To late for that. Beyond the rightfully thinking and have moved into the rightfully knowing.

[jlw61]

I think it's time for us all to get real about this Peak Oil issue. I've noticed something about westerners (and I'm one) in general and Americans in particular. We're whiners! Half the world is starving and we're crying about having to pay another 50 cents per gallon for gas.

Speak for yourself.

American's have it made compared to the bulk of the world in regards to our standard of living. Maybe too good because when everything is going along as well as it has here for last several decades, when our every want can by met with just a flick of the credit-card carrying wrist, when our biggest decision on any typical day may concern whether we're going to eat in or out, even the smallest inconvience feels like a catastrophe!

And Americans have been, for the most part, more free than any other people. That freedom has allowed us to create wonders beyond the dreams of our founders. Unfortunately we've forgotten the lessons of our founders at the same time and those chickens are coming home to roost.

Next thing you know we're spilling our guts out on some talk show about how terrible our lives are, sucking up for sympathy while people in other countries are trying to figure out were they're going to get their next meal. I agree with Matt Simmons about that. We're spoiled rotten.

That's a relative term. Am I spoiled rotten because I want a house that doesn't leak, can be heated in the winter, and has running hot and cold water? Is it too much to ask to have a little bit of air conditioning in the south? Is it too much to ask for technological solutions that allow me to discuss problems with people all around the world? If so, yep I'm spoiled along with the rest of the first world.

First off, we're not running out of oil now or anytime soon! There's plenty of it left.

Correct and if you had read anything about peak oil, you would know that it is not the end of oil, but the end of cheap oil and more importantly the end of growing production. Are we at peak? Perhaps not, but we are really close.

When they've put oil rigs in our backyards and those begin to run dry, then we will have tried everything and we can say that we're running out, not before!

And we're pumping that extra 1.5 - 2 million barrels a day. Yep, going to do a lot for us. Let's add another 2 from oil shale, 2 from coal to liquid, and heck let's give it another million a day for oil spewing algae. That's, at most, 7 million barrels and not one damned drop will appear in less than 5-10 years. By then, the world will have lost at least that much from depletion. The oil in our back yard, while important, isn't going to do one damned bit for us except cushion the impact for a small while.

I was guilty of worrying about peak oil too when the price at the pump started going up, but after a little more research, I know better now. Just look at all the articles posted here (and often ridiculed out of hand) that speak of this or that new find. And we're looking for more at an unprecedented rate. But even if we find that the amount the world wants is less than it can temporarily produce, so what! We're not going to starve to death! The oil generation only started really getting going about 1950 - 1960. Before that, most people lived just fine without oil. So we have to start pedalling bicycles again. Hell, we're too fat as it is! It'd do us a world of good to get off our butts and start riding bicycles.

Obviously you're not old enough to remember no A/C, the corner grocery store, the doctor who made house calls. the milk man, or the local hardware store. All of these things were changed/replaced when we moved to a cheap hooked on oil nation. That infrastructure is going to take years to rebuild and can only be rebuilt as the American consumer begins to go back towards the 1950's style of living. Oh, and hospitals who had penicilin as the only antibiotic. You're going to enjoy those days, believe me.

If we began to have an oil depletion problem, the gov't could easily circumvent any potential food shortages by simply allowing only food related industries, that is, agriculture and food transportation to use fuel while we stick to pedalling. Problem solved. Sure, things might seem a bit inconvienent at the beginning, but we'd adapt. We always have and we always will!

You think? I wonder what all of those service people who are unemployed and can't find a job will do because we've stripped our manufacturing base from our nation? So we'll be a nation of service workers with no one to service because most everyone can only travel 10 miles or so from home. Also, how will you pay for that wonderful food coming in from the farms that have oil? Or shall the government just go all the way and make this a communist nation? We'll take away all the guns, take away anything worth anything, and you can be happy pedaling your butt around town in rags.

One other thing. Some of the Peak Oil gurus we've been crooning over, people like James Howard Kunstler, what are their credentials? He was the adamant voice behind the Y2k scare and where did that get us?

Well, since I was involved quite heavily in converting systems for Y2K, I'd say that while he probably went overboard, it's only because many, many people worked a lot of overtime going over millions of lines of code. And when it came right down to it, more than a few computers were reset to 1972 to get around any problems.

We became a laughing stock to the rest of the world. When they see us, they see people who have way too much time on our hands. Time to concoct all kinds of conspiracy theories and witch hunts.

Yes, I always laugh at the super rich guy who can't figure out how a soda machine works or has a problem with pumping gas into his car. At the same time, I envy his abilty to have people do that for him and live in an absolute plush style to which I would like to grow accustomed.

While I too would love to live in the Willoughby world that Kunstler writes about, it's not going to happen! For me or you or anyone else. We can never go back to that kind of 'idylic life' so we might just as well get used to it. And for those people who seem to want things to get worse in our country, who are these people anyway? I mean, do they come from the mid west or the middle east? Really, who wants things to get worse?

You'll always find that type, but I would suggest that you take a look and realize that there are a lot of people on this board who are simply realistic on our future. Pops, Pup55, Tex and Ludi are absolute gems and many others are fine people who realize very soon demand is forever more going to outstrip production. That means that oil will forever more be increasingly more expensive and the odds of real alternatives providing what we need (let alone want) at the current population are slim at best.

The fact is this, our world is going to continue trudging along just as it always has, dragging itself from one crisis to another, staying just a step ahead of the apocalypse, becoming ever more hectic and miserable and somehow out of all that doom and gloom, we'll survive, albiet a good deal less happily than Huckleberry Finn. Get used to it.

Hucklebery Finn??? Huck? That's the best you can do? Someone who lives on a raft off of the Mississipi is going to be the ideal lifestyle? Are you absolutely, positively out of your fracking mind? If that is the ideal lifestyle, then the apocalypse will have been even worse than most of us can imagine!

I'm sorry, but you really need to read more and talk less if you want to understand what we, as a nation, world, and species face. This "peak oil" thing is going to start "resource wars", prevent us from mitigating "famines" and potentially be the cause about a 5 billion "reduction" of the world/s population over the next 100 or so years. A reduction that will not be as nice as people simply laying down and melting like snow.

[Micki]

Concerned1, funny I am coming to the opposite conclusions.
I have been following PO since 05 and I keep getting more pessimistic. (But no, I am not yet a doomer)

First of all world population has gone up during the oil age.
Secondly our economy is dependent on oil. So removing it has economical, social, material impact. Most of it negative.
Thirdly, you can't start installing rigs in everyones backyard and expect to get oil.
4th, oil rigs globally are rusting and and workforce with knowledge is aging and shrinking.
5th Mitigation program is minimum 20years and we have so far done nothing.
6th sounds like you haven't read up on Net Energy output. It is not the sice of the well that counts, it's the size of the tap. You can have a million years of reserves but if it only produces 1000 barrels a year, it is worthless.

[vilemerchant]

Why do fools always think PO is about 'running out' of oil?

[Kristen]

The problem isn't just the status quo, its the status symbol. Until Americans lose their appetite for material goods, we will continue down this death spiral.

[jlw61]

The problem isn't just the status quo, its the status symbol. Until Americans lose their appetite for material goods, we will continue down this death spiral.

Appetite for material goods? So you are using a public kiosk or library PC to connect to the internet? You don't have air conditioning or you live somewhere that you don't need it? Lucky you! You don't have an iPod or CD player or TV or refridgerator or motor vehicle of any kind? You use burlap for curtains? You have a dirt floor?

I think it is not just Americans who enjoy the high life. But wait, that's right, Europeans and Canadians, along with the rest of the first world nations, don't do that kind of thing! They sit on the floor, with their multigenerational family members, in a 250 square foot studio apartments growing alfalfa for dinner and walking 30 miles to work... in the snow... uphill... both ways... and they like it!.

[vilemerchant]

walking 30 miles to work... in the snow... uphill... both ways... and they like it!.

Here in Australia we just jump on the nearest kangaroo and bounce to work

[JimW]

When you write : The oil generation only started really getting going about 1950 - 1960.

While I will agree this was the beginning of suburbia I have to say that our farms i.e. ALL of our food production (ergo population growth) was in full swing long before this. We have been under the thumb of oil since it began replacing whale oil for our lights.

And yes we will survive I don't think anyone really disputes that. Its the transistion period that has a lot of us concerned.

[jlw61]

walking 30 miles to work... in the snow... uphill... both ways... and they like it!.

Here in Australia we just jump on the nearest kangaroo and bounce to work

I'll have to remember that one!

[JJ]

walking 30 miles to work... in the snow... uphill... both ways... and they like it!.

Here in Australia we just jump on the nearest kangaroo and bounce to work

I'll have to remember that one!

you have a job? (monte python)

[mystiek]

Riding a kangaroo-do you sit in the pouch-just curious? Since people are wanting everybody to "put on the table" their ideas for energy solutions you might be on to something (smily face).

[Sixstrings]

What convinced me was just seeing the number.. someone posted a spreadsheet here, with worldwide annual production and consumption.

If I remember correctly, we've been running short by a million barrels per day for quite a while now? And growing? Or did I read that wrong.. ?

[VMarcHart]

I think it's time for us all to get real about this Peak Oil issue.

Right on.

Half the world is starving and we're crying about having to pay another 50 cents per gallon for gas.

There are 400,000 Minnesotans were under the poverty line. I know kids who take turn eating supper. MN is one of the top states in the Union. It's very popular to think the kids in the pays de tier monde are starving and ours aren't. I need to take you in some of my trips.

...the smallest inconvience feels like a catastrophe!

Right on. If you are white and born in the US after 1950, even if you live under the poverty line, you have no idea what of catastrophe. Myself included.

...we're not running out of oil now or anytime soon! There's plenty of it left.

Right on. We're running out of cheap and readily available oil, and demand for it is growing faster than supply. That's PO. Life as we know is fixing to end.

We're not going to starve to death!

Most probably not. I'm sure we'll eat dog dung if it comes to it. Just kidding. Many thousands will die --I'll probably be in the first batch-- because the system is decaying, ie, police ceased patrolling, the medicine didn't get to the store, the farmer couldn't get his combine repaired, etc.

So we have to start pedalling bicycles again.

I echo Ludi; do you bike to work? BTW, I walk to work.

If we began to have an oil depletion problem, the gov't could easily circumvent any potential food shortages by simply allowing only food related industries, that is, agriculture and food transportation to use fuel.

I don't know about that.

...our world is going to continue trudging along just as it always has, dragging itself from one crisis to another, staying just a step ahead of the apocalypse, becoming ever more hectic and miserable and somehow out of all that doom and gloom, we'll survive, albiet a good deal less happily than Huckleberry Finn. Get used to it.

Agreed. If it's not this is that. My grandparents thought WWII was the end of the world. Every known evidence pointed to it. Yet they survived 6 years in the trenches. Granted, I'm not made of the same cloth. I'm a big whimp in comparison.

Again, you're right. Good for those who will survive PO and the Great Die-Off, and will spread their genes for the next generation. I live day-by-day, love my wife, enjoy my walks along Lake Michigan, ski, biking, diving, sailing, my hot rod, love the company of my family and friends, recycle, conserve all sorts of energy, try to stay healthy, save money, plan a few weeks ahead, help with PO awareness, etc, but that's about it. Beyond that I lose focus.