[jdumars]

Everyone is acting like mystically everything that was wrong has suddenly been resolved. Oil dropping, Dow up, financial stocks recovering.

What is going on? What has fundamentally changed? Dante? Mr. Bill? paging all experts...

[Tyler_JC]

People were expecting earnings to be horrible this quarter. Really, really horrible.

As it turns out they are merely awful.

They are beating expectations (who cares if those expectations were of economic collapse?)

When the Markets realize that the economy is NOT recovering quickly, I expect to see the Dow fall below 10,000. Maybe even by the end of the year.

We aren't out of the woods yet, this is merely a dead cat bounce.

Don't forget that $150 billion in economic stimulus checks have allowed consumers to spend more than they earn in the past quarter. All of that money is gone.

Q3 is going to scary.

[JJ]

ditto...they were ridiculing me at work yesterday...stock markets up, oils down, blah blah... hows that nostradamus...

[joeltrout]

Don't let daily, weekly, or even monthly swings in the stock market get you. They trade on news.

This time the news was bad but not as bad as everyone expected therefore it was good.

joeltrout

[jdumars]

ditto...they were ridiculing me at work yesterday...stock markets up, oils down, blah blah... hows that nostradamus...

Yeah, I am losing some street cred on this too.

Something Simmons said recently regarding oil price floor has been sticking with me. His idea was, every time there's a new record, that becomes the "floor price" -- so people aren't foolishly waiting for it to go back to $40/barrel and not investing in new infrastructure.

So, these retracements are EXTREMELY damaging even if they are only short lived. People will use this is as an example of why it's a "bubble" and not fundamentals. Never mind that it's only going back to the $120 range and not $80.

[Tyler_JC]

Stocks are up today on a mix of cheaper oil, reasonable earnings numbers, and a semi-decent housing starts figure.

Housing starts were good this month (up 11.6% from last month) but we're 26.9% below last June's level.

Housing Starts #

But the gold market wasn't fooled.

Gold is up another $15 today. We're up more than $100 in the past month alone.

[eastbay]

And do not join up with yea brethren of little faith. Oil is heading upward for all the reasons. It just likes to return now and then to pay brief social visits with old prices along the way.

Nothing can stop the march upward other than a catastrophic economic calamity which isn't scheduled to arrive until later.

[Peepers]

I realize America hasn't been around for a long time, but to judge the future of the republic and the global economy on several days' worth of economic news? What in the world is the attention span of these people? Geez, my cat has a longer attention span....

[HEADER_RACK]

DENIAL

[NTBKtrader]

the sec going after short sellers in financials has also had a large impact i think...Short Sellers

[heroineworshipper]

It's the dot bank boom. Banks are the next big thing. You gotta get in because it's only a matter of time before banks turn a profit and once they start making money, there's going to be a Google bank.

[Starvid]

So when do you think the DOW hits 4000?

[emersonbiggins]

Stocks are up today on a mix of cheaper oil, reasonable earnings numbers, and a semi-decent housing starts figure.

Housing starts were good this month (up 11.6% from last month) but we're 26.9% below last June's level.

Housing Starts #

Read [s]that[/s] this article a little more closely.

A change in zoning practices in NYC is what prompted the increase, all of which was multi-family.

Single-family housing starts were still down 4% M/M (and, of course, Y/Y).

[HEADER_RACK]

After an amazing five-year run when the world saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) increase in value fivefold, prices peaked at 381.17 on September 3, 1929. The market then fell sharply for a month, losing 17% of its value on the initial leg down. Prices then recovered more than half of the losses over the next week, only to turn back down immediately afterwards. The decline then accelerated into the so-called "Black Thursday", October 24, 1929.

Wiki

Intresting

[UncoveringTruths]

Is this the rinse and repeat scenario?

Are we rinsing off all the bad data trying to make a comeback in the markets only to be beaten back down later by higher energy prices?

IMO we will have to use more energy to drive the economy back up and when that comes to a realization then it will be two steps back.

Rinse and Repeat...

I'm glad we have some optimists out there. It gives us some time.

[Cashmere]

Stocks are up today on a mix of cheaper oil, reasonable earnings numbers, and a semi-decent housing starts figure.

Housing starts were good this month (up 11.6% from last month) but we're 26.9% below last June's level.

Housing Starts #

Read [s]that[/s] this article a little more closely.

A change in zoning practices in NYC is what prompted the increase, all of which was multi-family.

Single-family housing starts were still down 4% M/M (and, of course, Y/Y).

Good pick up EB - I had come across that as well, but I wasn't sure iif the cited numbers were from NY or all of the U.S..

[JJ]

Is this the rinse and repeat scenario?

Are we rinsing off all the bad data trying to make a comeback in the markets only to be beaten back down later by higher energy prices?

IMO we will have to use more energy to drive the economy back up and when that comes to a realization then it will be two steps back.

Rinse and Repeat...

I'm glad we have some optimists out there. It gives us some time.

:):)

[smallpoxgirl]

My take, oil prices finally got high enough that demand destruction happened and price is correcting down to a more sustainable slope. Actually it happened to all the fossil fuels. Natural gas and coal are way down too.

The airlines and others have predictably got out their kazoos and are having a little party about the busting of the energy bubble. Somewhere between a week and maybe a month from now, energy commodities will finish their correction and head back up. All the partiers will turn back into Eeyores.

It's pretty amazing to watch isn't it? Yesterday American Airlines announced $1 billion in losses. On that news their stock is up 50% in two days.

But the gold market wasn't fooled.

Gold is up another $15 today.

Not anymore. Down $5 at this point. Faked me out. Hopefully it'll stop at $955 and reverse tommorrow.

[emeraldg40]

My take, oil prices finally got high enough that demand destruction happened and price is correcting down to a more sustainable slope. Actually it happened to all the fossil fuels. Natural gas and coal are way down too.

The airlines and others have predictably got out their kazoos and are having a little party about the busting of the energy bubble. Somewhere between a week and maybe a month from now, energy commodities will finish their correction and head back up. All the partiers will turn back into Eeyores.

It's pretty amazing to watch isn't it? Yesterday American Airlines announced $1 billion in losses. On that news their stock is up 50% in two days.


Wondering if AA will take GMs lead and slash retiree health.

But the gold market wasn't fooled.

Gold is up another $15 today.

Not anymore. Down $5 at this point. Faked me out. Hopefully it'll stop at $955 and reverse tommorrow.