[Cashmere]

UK Telegraph

Oil has queered the pitch. So has America's fatal reliance on foreign debt. The Fannie/Freddie rescue, incidentally, has just lifted the US national debt from German 'AAA' levels to Italian 'AA-' levels.

Other than the author's implication that this mess is remediable, I agree wholeheartedly with the conclusion of the article.

[MrBill]

A good article. I am probably in the minority in seeing this as a global problem and not just a US or US-dollar problem. I think we are in a rolling, global recession going west to east, and round two starts when it rolls back onto American shores at the end of 2008/start of 2009. Then it starts over again. The global imbalances are simply too large to be unwound in an orderly manner. Thanks for the link.

[Cashmere]

A good article. I am probably in the minority in seeing this as a global problem and not just a US or US-dollar problem. I think we are in a rolling, global recession going west to east, and round two starts when it rolls back onto American shores at the end of 2008/start of 2009. Then it starts over again. The global imbalances are simply too large to be unwound in an orderly manner. Thanks for the link.

Butter my butt and call me a biscuit!

MrBill, we agree!

[Byron100]

But what I wanna know is when the world "officially" tips into depression, on par with the 1930's. A year from now, 3 years from now? Next month?

All this waiting is getting on my nerves, I want it to happen NOW.

Then perhaps we can begin work on a new, *non-capitalistic* economic system.

It's just too darned bad that the USSR isn't still around, demonstrating an alternative way of doing things for when the capitalistic system crashes down. Did you know that some Americans were actually immigrating over there in the 1930's for jobs, food and housing, which they could not obtain here? Yep, America ain't all what it's cracked up to be, for sure. What we have here now (and the most of the world too) is a total illusion, brought to us by the siren call of cheap oil.

And before you folks jump all over me for being a pinko communist, lemme tell you, life in the Soviet Union in the mid 20th Century was a whole damn sight better than places such as Africa, South America, etc.

[Cashmere]

But what I wanna know is when the world "officially" tips into depression, on par with the 1930's. A year from now, 3 years from now? Next month?

What will be, to you, the sign of the "official" tipping?

[FoxV]

But what I wanna know is when the world "officially" tips into depression, on par with the 1930's. A year from now, 3 years from now? Next month?

All this waiting is getting on my nerves, I want it to happen NOW.

it'll never happen. The Great depression was a function of collapsing money supply because of the restrictive gold standard. And the great depression pretty much ended when countries abandoned their gold standards or massively devalued their currencies.

Today there is no such restrictions (however temporary) on the amount of currency that can be pumped into a system today. And don't think that collapsing credit will stop money growth. First, there's more money held outside the US than within the US. That means foreigners ultimately have more control over the value of the dollar than Ben does. Second, Ben has already shown us his road map to Wiemar.

First easy money to Member banks
then easy money to investment banks
Now easy money to GSE's
Next easy money to regional banks
Finally, easy money to J6P

A depression under today's conditions would be the end of the US as a country. But don't worry, the helicopters are flying, its just they have a lot of stops to make so it'll take a bit of time before one reaches your neighborhood

[Kingcoal]

Excellent article. Currently, the talking heads are going on about how oil might drop into single digits. God they are so lost. Strategy is constantly one of trying to buy more time. Why? Do the powers that be actually think that we are going to be saved by a dramatic drop in oil prices? Maybe they just want to try to blame it all on the next administration.

[skeptik]

But what I wanna know is when the world "officially" tips into depression, on par with the 1930's. A year from now, 3 years from now? Next month?

Why? Its a continuum, a cascade of linked causes and effects, which thenbecome causes. Like water going over rapids. any 'point' you point to and shout 'depression' would be purely arbitrary. Differnet peoplr have different definitions. It doesn't really matter. What matters is how fast and orderly or disorderly the descent is, and how far it goes down before bottoming into some sort of stability. Fast disorderly descent is really bad news

[charliebrownout]

But what I wanna know is when the world "officially" tips into depression, on par with the 1930's. A year from now, 3 years from now? Next month?

Why? Its a continuum, a cascade of linked causes and effects, which thenbecome causes. Like water going over rapids. any 'point' you point to and shout 'depression' would be purely arbitrary. Differnet peoplr have different definitions. It doesn't really matter. What matters is how fast and orderly or disorderly the descent is, and how far it goes down before bottoming into some sort of stability. Fast disorderly descent is really bad news

I can sympathize with skeptik, though. I sense a lot of tension in the air. I keep wondering when I will turn on the news or go to the computer, only to find the time has run out and even the talking heads have been silenced.

Still, I'm trying to prepare and I need time to do it...so my fingers are crossed.

It is maddening, though. Then, sometimes it is easy to get complacent and try to drift back into denial, too.

[nobodypanic]

First easy money to Member banks
then easy money to investment banks
Now easy money to GSE's
Next easy money to regional banks
Finally, easy money to J6P

yeah, yeah, yeah... that's all great, but what i really want to know is when, o when, do the peons such as myself get some of that easy money, via the wage side of the inflation spiral, that ol' ben's tossing around ? i'd really like to pay off my creditors w/some nice hyper-inflated dollars.

[Cashmere]

Well, this is why I asked the poster about what would signify "official".

Really, we're already in the descent - I guess some people just need to hear/see something in particular to confirm it.

[NoWorries]

Actually this item from Ambrose Evans Pritchard is a lot more toned-down than his previous reports. In his 29 December 2007 item he quoted analysts as saying that the coming crash would "make 1929 look like a walk in the park": link

Now he seems to have retreated from that view.

[CarlosFerreira]

We're all guessing hard. It's been said before: Marx talked about the excess of growth due to stock markets, and he didn't even dream of derivatives, hedge funds and whatnot. He was an economist, a good one. He understood - like many before and after him - that you can't make value out of thin air, and that's what our economy's been doing for decades. It's due to collapse. They could probably get away with it, if it wasn't for Peak Oil (peak everything, really) crunching consumer goods industries and bringing troubled over large corporation that exist in the stock market.

If, along with all the stress, the warmongers don't stop and understand it's going to precipitate the problem they're running away from, it will be worse - and quicker - but will only bring about the inevitable, without a hint of warning to the masses that believe. Bless them!

If the current paradigm is maintained, and steps are made to fix it, it will also break, but it will take longer and allow some time to prepare. Either was, globalization (all of it, not just the financial part) is going apart with cheap energy. RIP.

[Snowrunner]

Now he seems to have retreated from that view.

Bad news is only good news if it isn't about yourself.
Keep in mind that things in the UK have unravelled a lot faster than in the US and other places (sans Spain) and I think they have now switched in the "Let's all have hope" phase.

[Micki]

But what I wanna know is when the world "officially" tips into depression, on par with the 1930's. A year from now, 3 years from now? Next month?
All this waiting is getting on my nerves, I want it to happen NOW.
Then perhaps we can begin work on a new, *non-capitalistic* economic system.
It's just too darned bad that the USSR isn't still around, demonstrating an alternative way of doing things for when the capitalistic system crashes down. Did you know that some Americans were actually immigrating over there in the 1930's for jobs, food and housing, which they could not obtain here? Yep, America ain't all what it's cracked up to be, for sure. What we have here now (and the most of the world too) is a total illusion, brought to us by the siren call of cheap oil.
And before you folks jump all over me for being a pinko communist, lemme tell you, life in the Soviet Union in the mid 20th Century was a whole damn sight better than places such as Africa, South America, etc.

Of cpourse there were people migrating to Sovjet back in the early days. They were communists and Sovjet was supposed to become their utopia.
But don't worry, USA and other Wester nations is on a path to resemble Sovjet quite well. A small priveleged elite that has everything and the great masses queuing for hours to get a loaf of bread.

Last time I visited my Grandmother in Finland she told me about Finnish communists also migrating to Sovjet.
They had a radio channel specifically for the Finns where they could send regards from Sovjet to their family bback in Finland and tell about how great everything is. She also mentioned that those who said anything negative never were heard from again.


PLEASE gor God sake, can't you see how communism IS the NWO in practice. Enslaved people being told at the barrel of a gun what to do, think and say.

Communism and Anarchism are systems that can only work once humanity is free from egoism and greed.

[Snowrunner]

PLEASE gor God sake, can't you see how communism IS the NWO in practice. Enslaved people being told at the barrel of a gun what to do, think and say.

Communism wasn't really ever tried. It was Stalinism which basically used the image of Communism to lull the people in. Likewise it is done today in the "englightend" West when it comes to Capitalism.

Don't confuse the label with the content.

Communism and Anarchism are systems that can only work once humanity is free from egoism and greed.

This is true for any system, because those systems are created by idealists, the real world usually abuses the advantages each of the systems has due to Greed.

[Micki]

Communism wasn't really ever tried. It was Stalinism which basically used the image of Communism to lull the people in. Likewise it is done today in the "englightend" West when it comes to Capitalism.

And in China it was maoism. And in Vietnam it was Uncle Ho-ism.
And in Laos it was.....who knows. And in Cuba it was Castroism.
And in Cambodia it was Pol Pot.
So no communistic nation has managed to implement proper communism where the elite doesn't take advantage and let the people go poor. How come we now are so optimistic that it will succeed?

(EDITED: How could I forget mentioning the robber barons of Romania and North Korea. What text book examples of power that corrupts.)

[cube]

But what I wanna know is when the world "officially" tips into depression, on par with the 1930's. A year from now, 3 years from now? Next month?

All this waiting is getting on my nerves, I want it to happen NOW.

it'll never happen. The Great depression was a function of collapsing money supply because of the restrictive gold standard. And the great depression pretty much ended when countries abandoned their gold standards or massively devalued their currencies.

Today there is no such restrictions (however temporary) on the amount of currency that can be pumped into a system today.

[cube]

I have severe issues with this theory that we can inflate our way out of this mess.
I think inflation is like taking steroids or drugs......it works in the beginning but in the end you reach a "saturation point" where no amount of stimulants can jump start the system. Collapse is unavoidable.

[Micki]

I have severe issues with this theory that we can inflate our way out of this mess.
I think inflation is like taking steroids or drugs......it works in the beginning but in the end you reach a "saturation point" where no amount of stimulants can jump start the system. Collapse is unavoidable.

Of course they can't inflate their way ot of it. Nobody thinks that.
It is a way of winning time and rescuing the parties that they want to rescue.