[TheDude]

This is a sheet of basic data I've compiled, on the subjects which I think are most pertinent to making the argument that peak oil is a serious issue, the mitigation of which will be time consuming, expensive, and involve serious hardship for people. The subjects I chose are those which most people will have a vague familiarity with from hearing about via the MSM - and thus pin their hopes on. I figure that when dealing with people one-on-one a short and sweet document like this will convey the message well enough, we can elaborate on the foundation laid here.

Perhaps it will be of use to some of you - would welcome any elaborations/corrections, links to more extensive documents, etc. I haven't made many peak oil raps myself, as it happens. Not my forte.

Almost all of this is US-centric, too.

U.S. Crude Oil Production
5.102 million barrels/day
1.86 billion barrels/year

World Crude Oil Production
85.67 million barrels/day
31.270 billion barrels/year

U.S. Petroleum Consumption
20.69 million barrels/day
7.55 billion barrels/year

U.S. Motor Gasoline Consumption
9.25 million barrels/day (388.6 million gallons/day)
3.285 billion barrels/year (141.839 billion gallons/year)

U.S. Crude Oil Imports
10.118 million barrels/day
3.69 billion barrels/year

U.S. Petroleum Product Imports
3.59 million barrels/day

ANWR
4.3 (95%) - 11.8 billion (5%) billion barrels in the 1002 area; 5.7 – 16.0 billion barrels in total area.
Min. 10 years to first oil. Slow production buildup.

Ethanol
6.5 billion gallons per year at 25% of corn crop.

Drilling

500,785 producing oil wells in 2006. 14,477 Exploratory and Development wells drilled for 2007, figure increases each year but US production continues to decline. Onshore wells averaged $1.442 million in 2004; this has increased. Jack2 UDW test well cost $80 million/year, production wells are $80-120 million each + $1.3 to $1.5 billion for subsea facilities, Tahiti project $3.5 billion/125 kbpd, Blind Faith $1 billion/30 kbpd. UDW projects are 4-8 years to startup, quicker to decline due to operational costs, maximum 250k barrels/day output.

Mexico

Production is 3.50 million barrels/day, of which the Cantarell field provides 55% total production, this field is declining 25-33%/year at present (rumored to be higher). Domestic consumption is 2.05 million barrels/day. Exports to US 1.26 mbpd, declining ca. 200k/year, will reach zero in 6-7 years. Crude sales account for 40% of overall tax revenues (reduced from 60% to encourage exploration). 40% of petroleum products (60% of which is gasoline) used are imports, primarily from the US. Windfall profits from increased oil price are almost entirely being used to prop up subsidies for fuel. Most additional reserves are ultra deepwater offshore, requiring outside assistance.

Canada

Exports to US for 2008 average 1.89 million barrels per day, owing to increases from the tar sands, which slightly overcome annual decreases in conventional oil production.

Oil Shale

Shell in-situ process requires 1.2 GW power for 100k barrels/day, plans are to utilize natural gas extracted on site after process has commenced, but other energy sources will likely need to be employed to initiate extraction. Rods used for heating of shale need to be made from conductive metals, namely silver/gold/copper, and stand up to four years of continuous use. Ex situ methods use 1 to 5 barrels of water per barrel of oil recovered; in situ claims 1/10 this amount, which is nevertheless substantial. Even larger volumes of waste water are produced, which require treatment before disposal. Sundry other issues with emissions are involved, see http://www.ead.anl.gov/pub/doc/ANL-EVS- ... report.pdf and http://srb.stanford.edu/nur/GP200A%20Pa ... _paper.pdf


US Auto Fleet

244 million cars – 136 million passenger vehicles, 92 million LDVs, 6.6 million motorcycles. 199 million licensed drivers. Total US sales average ca. 17 million/year, 2008 projections are for 14 million. Average age of vehicles is 6.6 years for LDVs, 9 years for cars. 324K hybrid sales for 2007. Total sales projected at 7% (ca. 1 million) by 2015, with possibly 1.5 million additions to fleet total. Chevy Volt debuts in November 2010; sales projected to 40k in 2014.

Commuters

147.9 million workers, 5% used public transportation in 2004 – 1/3 of these were in NYC. Ca. 15 million carpooled. Shortest average commute times were ca. 15 minutes, highest NY at 38 minutes, average is 26.4 minutes. Only 29% have commute distances of 1-5 miles, thus 105 million commuters are out of the likely feasible range of walking/bicycling for commuting.
Commuting distances in 2003: 1-5 miles 29%, 6-10 miles 22%, 11-15 miles 17%, 16-20 miles 10%, 21-25 miles 7%, 26-30 miles 5%, 31-35 miles 3%, >35 miles 8%

[kokoda]

Interesting figures ... actually depressing figures when you really start to crunch them.

[killJOY]

Nice going, Dude.

Now, where's that razor blade....

[MD]

...

Now, where's that razor blade....

Easy there killer. Let's just have a nice game of cards or something instead?

[RacerJace]

snip...

Almost all of this is US-centric, too.

U.S. Crude Oil Production
5,102,000 million barrels/day
1.86 billion barrels/year

...snip

I assume this was a cut and paste error ?!

Otherwise they're useful numbers. Only problem is I'm not a great numbers person I respond more to visual data like graphs and pie charts. I think many others in the general population are the same.. they just see a list of numbers and are too lazy or unable to put them in perspective or comprehend the consequences. "More colour and movement" as they say in the executive circles.

[TheDude]

Oops, my bad about the 5.12 mbs.

I'm a fan of a solid visual presentation as well, for many of these figures it's been done, and would be simple enough to cook 'em up for the rest.

Razor blade? What part makes you want to shave?

[hydrocarbon]

what happened to canada, i would like to see some figures from our largest supplier of petroleum

[TheDude]

Added a brief section on Canada. Might add the top US sources for imports at some point, too. The tar sands could use their own paragraph.

[VMarcHart]

U.S. Crude Oil Production
5.102 million barrels/day

U.S. Crude Oil Imports
10.118 million barrels/day

U.S. Petroleum Consumption
20.69 million barrels/day

Please help me with my math. Are the missing 5 mbd distilled petroleum products? Thanks.

[Duende]

Wow! Thanks a lot TheDube! This is the kind of info I wish was just available on the site de facto.

[TheDude]

Wow! Thanks a lot TheDube! This is the kind of info I wish was just available on the site de facto.

Dube? You mean a J?
Glad ya like it. Any suggestions/corrections are welcome.
The missing factor in US domestic consumption is NGLs, didn't want to delve into all the little details though.
Punched up the section on Mexico per eastbay's suggestion.

[TonyPrep]

U.S. Crude Oil Production
5.102 million barrels/day
1.86 billion barrels/year

World Crude Oil Production
85.67 million barrels/day
31.270 billion barrels/year

Not sure about this, TheDude. Isn't the US figure crude oil, but the world figure all liquids? US all liquids production was at 8.65 mbpd in June, according to the EIA's STEO, with the world number at 86.28.

The crude oil world figure is at something under 70 mbpd, with lease condensates taking that figure to the mid 70s.

[Mack12345]

I wanted to chime in and say that .. I like this thred .... Thank you TheDude ...

For a newbie like me its very helpfull to have this type of clear post .

[Duende]

TheDude wrote:

Duende wrote:
Wow! Thanks a lot TheDube! This is the kind of info I wish was just available on the site de facto.

Dube? You mean a J?

Ha! It's like a double entendre or something.

[JustaGirl]

Yikes! I would have thought US gasoline consumption would have been a higher %. From the graphs I've seen at the oil drum, transportation accounts for nearly 70% of our oil use in the US. I guess the other ~20% is diesel?

I'm shocked by the Cantarel figures. I can't imagine what will happen if SA follows that decline %

[ROCKMAN]

And you can't expect Mexico do anything soon about their declining production. This just hit the wire this morning. The M. gov't had done such a great job of trashing foreign oil companies and now they have to live with it.

MEXICO CITY - Mexico City residents voted against the president's proposal to give private companies a bigger role in the country's state-run oil industry, according to results of a nonbinding referendum released Monday. In the capital, more than 80 percent of those who voted Sunday opposed President Felipe Calderon's plan. Results were still being tallied in the other nine states that participated in the referendum organized by the leftist Democratic Revolutionary Party, or PRD. About 820,000 Mexico City residents voted — a turnout of 11 percent, much lower than PRD officials had anticipated. The party said some 2 million people voted nationwide.