[Veritas]

Text deletedI looked over the graphs at that page but its mostly gobbledy-gook for a simpleton (read: non phD math student) like me.

The simple question is WHY would anyone presuppose that production will peak when half the reserves have been depleted? I can see no logical reason for this relationship! Yet it seems to be the basis of the bell curve - if the area under the peak has to be equal on both sides, there isn't much room for deviance in how that right hand side will look.

The "plateau" concept only works if we can say that there will be more - significantly more oil produced after the peak in production than prior to it.

Maybe we consume 1 trillion barrels when oil production peaks around 85 million a day... if there are only 1 trillion left the decline will be fairly steep... but what if there were 5 trillion left? You could sustain 85 million or close to it for a VERY long period of time, and the lifestyle adjustments required by people would be modest and gradual (no mad max coming here).

On the other hand if you're going to fall from 85 million/day to 1 million/day in 20 years, this is going to be harsh and probably catastrophic.

So to sum (Text deleted, I would really like to get clarity on this):

1. Difference between a bell curve and a plateau is immense in terms of the amount of time to adjust to less available oil, and the measures necessary to adapt.

2. The only way the post-peak could be a plateau is if there are significantly more reserves produced after the peak than before it. That is, the peak in production does NOT coincide with the production of 50% of all available oil.

Do we have any reason to believe that peak production does coincide with half of all oil being produced (or consumed, whichever is the right term)? If we don't, does that mean that the bell curve theory is disproven (or at least a significant uncertainty no more probable than a plateau)?

[Twilight]

Text deleted

I looked over the graphs at that page but its mostly gobbledy-gook for a simpleton (read: non phD math student) like me.

It's high school stuff to be honest, or was. It needs a longer explanation to put it in context. There are many old ones around here.

The simple question is WHY would anyone presuppose that production will peak when half the reserves have been depleted? I can see no logical reason for this relationship! Yet it seems to be the basis of the bell curve - if the area under the peak has to be equal on both sides, there isn't much room for deviance in how that right hand side will look.

It is what is observed in nature. Actually, it does not have to be exactly 50%. In practice it can be 40% or 60% just as easily. But because so much oil is used during the interval around peak (bounded area under curve), shifting it one way or another by seemingly large numbers shifts the peak date by only a few years.

The "plateau" concept only works if we can say that there will be more - significantly more oil produced after the peak in production than prior to it.

Well that is the problem. The discovery trend (peaked in mid-60s, ceased to replace consumption in 1981), inadequate now even taking unbackdated reserve growth into account, points the way to Ultimate being a lot less than many trillions of barrels. We are definitely looking at two, two-and-a-half, unless the discovery trend reverses.

I would really like to get clarity on this):

1. Difference between a bell curve and a plateau is immense in terms of the amount of time to adjust to less available oil, and the measures necessary to adapt.

2. The only way the post-peak could be a plateau is if there are significantly more reserves produced after the peak than before it. That is, the peak in production does NOT coincide with the production of 50% of all available oil.

Do we have any reason to believe that peak production does coincide with half of all oil being produced (or consumed, whichever is the right term)? If we don't, does that mean that the bell curve theory is disproven (or at least a significant uncertainty no more probable than a plateau)?

The production bell curve mirrors the discovery bell curve with a time lag. And that is already history.

[Leanan]

Look on this page:

http://www.peakoil.com/forums.html