look at bloomberg: bloomberg
More exports that seems like a real recovery. But that US people bought more durable goods, whatever it is (??hoes, TV) that does not sound good, that means even more depth, as incomes are falling. What did they buy?
Excluding orders for transportation equipment, which tend to be volatile, bookings rose 2 percent, the most this year, after dropping 0.5 percent a month earlier.
The gains reflected increasing demand for machinery, metals, autos and defense gear.
Bookings for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a measure of future business investment, climbed 1.4 percent after a 0.1 percent decrease in May. Shipments of those items, which is a figure used in calculating gross domestic product, increased 0.7 percent following a 0.2 percent gain.
Professor Membrane wrote: Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
A serious event occurred today. This event was the very public international recognition of more off balance sheet so called “assets” revealed as having little, if any, value. This event is arguably the most serious financial upset ever. If you have not protected yourself, it is getting very late - maybe too late.
Your best hope is that this event is so complex that the herd of self anointed experts has no clue what that vehicle is, how large it is and therefore the profound meaning it has. Gold, serious junior gold shares (the only seriously underpriced and therefore real value in equities) and non-dollar short term federal currency instruments are your sanctuary. You better get there, and get there FAST!
The meaning of this is not only are Freddie and Fannie’s troubles much costlier than realized, but now there is an entirely new definition of market-less financial entities with off balance sheet assets that undermine primarily the US and now international banking systems. Conduit mortgage OTC derivatives will have to be marked down now that the sun is shining on them.
The U.S. mortgage industry transformed itself in a way that has opened dangerous SIV sub prime real estate conduits to global capital markets. A conduit loan is priced by swaps and swap spreads, thereby becoming a package of various OTC derivatives generally derived from a formula that would make Einstein look like a kindergarten mathematician.
By turning mortgages into securities, lenders created vast distances between homeowners and their mortgage holders, who can be anywhere in the world such as Australia.
US banks have written down $450 billion in bad housing loans. The revelation from NAB means that they will now certainly need to take provisions to $1,000 billion. Write-downs of $1,300 billion and perhaps even more are in the cards.
That guarantees the USDX at .6200 and more likely at .5200. That guarantees gold to reach at least $1650 much sooner than I anticipated.
This strongly suggests that my estimate of $1650 is significantly below the price of gold coming soon.
This opens the probability that a modernized and revitalized Federal Reserve Gold certificate ratio tied to the M3 will evolve into the monetary system.
The greatest economic crime ever committed is OTC derivatives. Those that proffered these will have killed more people than most wars.
This is it and it is NOW!
Respectfully yours,
Jim Sinclair
Jim Sinclair wrote:This opens the probability that a modernized and revitalized Federal Reserve Gold certificate ratio tied to the M3 will evolve into the monetary system.
alokin wrote:oilfinder, BOEING is just ONE business, not a whole economy. Maybe the Chinese spend more dollars.
alokin wrote:But what are all this durable goods the US citizens bought? Or bought more? Shovels? TV sets? electronic toys? Sweaters?
Much of the increase in June was defense-related. Defense orders rose 12%, according to Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics. Total orders, excluding defense, were up only 0.1%.
Details of durables report
Orders for primary metals rose 5.1% after falling 1.8%. Shipments rose 2.8% after 1.4%.
Orders for fabricated metals rose 1.7% after a 0.3% drop in May. Shipments rose 0.6% after a 0.4% fall.
Orders for electrical equipment rose 5.0% after 2.0%. Shipments fell 0.4% after a 0.4% gain.
Orders for machinery rose 2.3% after shrinking 3.7% in May. Shipments rose 2.4% after 0.1%.
Orders for transportation goods fell 2.6% after growing 1.9%. Shipments rose 1.4% after falling 3.8%.
Orders for computers equipment (excluding semiconductors) fell 1.1% after jumping 2.8%. Shipments (including semiconductors) fell 1.1% after rising 2.8%.
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests