[jesterx]

You guys there is lots of talk about a coming crash on the stock market.
The big banks are failing and there is trouble brewing. Have a look at what this analyst is saying. He has predictions that are coming true day by day...insane.
This guys predictions keep coming true and predicting this meltdown will crash the market later this year.

Stock Market Crash Update
Part 1 link1

Part 2 link2

[Narz]

Someone's predicting a stock market crash every year. I'm sick of the suspense.

[catbox]

Been listening to Myspacesecrets for a few months now on the uTube.
I admire him for doing his thing and he's got some good insight into the markets. But.....most of the things he talks about are and have been talked about here at PO.Com for quite some time. I also think he's a little late to the PO party...although he's started talking about energy a bit more these days.

That said, I look forward to his clips each week.

catbox

[Nicholai]

Jesterx.....we've heard this time and time again...and it never happens. Fail thread is fail.

[jesterx]

I understand ...

you are all entitled to your own opinion....but i guess I am really open minded about the economy.

I know that there are some serious stuff going on with the economy....but you guys dont think this market will crash?

The failure of the banking and financial systems is pretty serious......

I hate when they keep saying this is the bottom get back in......they keep saying that and the market keeps tanking.....

I No doubt believe the market will crash though....soon probably this year I guess.

[jlw61]

I No doubt believe the market will crash though....soon probably this year I guess.

Then stock your root cellar, make sure you've got plenty of ammo, cancel your credit cards, pay off your debt, make sure your home is free and clear, and buy, buy, buy that precious metals.

Each of us, if we've been doing what has been stated over and over on this board have been preparing for quite some time. Read up and learn about what has been discussed for years. We all know the possibility of a market/financial crash and the idea is to insulate yourself as much as possible from all disasters, natural and man-made.

[Cashmere]

you are all entitled to your own opinion....but i guess I am really open minded about the economy.

So I'm not "open-minded" about the economy?

I had a woman tell me the other day that I wasn't "open minded" about ghosts and angels.

Anytime some fruit who believes in ghosts asks me whether I believe in ghosts, I say, "Yes. And goblins too. There are goblins living in my woods."

"Oh but that's ridiculous" they say. "Everybody knows there's no such thing as goblins."

Don't insult me.
I probably know more about the economy than you and your 10 closest friends, combined.

Believing that something is possible doesn't make you open minded.

If it does, then I'd like to point out that a lot of people aren't open minded about the goblins in my woods.

[Eli]

I understand ... you are all entitled to your own opinion....but i guess I am really open minded about the economy. I know that there are some serious stuff going on with the economy....but you guys dont think this market will crash?

We have been talking about the collapse of the entire financial system since back in 2005. Look at the Housing and Economic collapse thread, that discussion has been going on for a very long time and the worst predictions on there have been proven correct.

You will find that thread very helpful, and any info you can bring to is much appreciated.

[CarlosFerreira]

... I'd like to point out that a lot of people aren't open minded about the goblins in my woods.

Great quote!

jesterx, welcome aboard. You will find that the people in peakoil.com forums have been reading, talking and generally preparing for this. Everyone's entitled to their opinion, even the brilliant guy that keep putting threads concerning metaphisics, symbology and whatnot. Bear in mind, we don't always agree (I generally disagree you should be storing and running away from people, although I agree big cities should be avoided).

In a nutshell: we're peakoilers. Not much scares the living crap out of us. We've all had that a while ago.

So... red pill or blue pill?

[vaseline2008]

I guess we really have to define "crash". In 1987, the DJIA dropped 508 points for a total of 22%. Today, using 11,000 as a reference point, it would have to drop between 2200 (20%) and 2750 (25%) to have the same percentage drop as in 1987. We now see ups and downs between 200 and 300 points quite often. What I've been seeing is a slow decline from 14000 to 11000, that's 3000 points, just short of 25%. Has the "crash" already happened or is it going to get worse?

[CarlosFerreira]

Portugal's main index (PSI20) has dropped over 30% since January. There have been days of 8/9% drop, and days of recovery. The aggregate is not pretty, though. A new sort of crash, that isn't a crash at all, but a long, painful and heavy decline towards the bottom?

[vilemerchant]

Anytime some fruit who believes in ghosts asks me whether I believe in ghosts, I say, "Yes. And goblins too. There are goblins living in my woods."

"Oh but that's ridiculous" they say. "Everybody knows there's no such thing as goblins."

I want to know more about Goblins. Are there any Goblin threads?

[CarlosFerreira]

Anytime some fruit who believes in ghosts asks me whether I believe in ghosts, I say, "Yes. And goblins too. There are goblins living in my woods."

"Oh but that's ridiculous" they say. "Everybody knows there's no such thing as goblins."

I want to know more about Goblins. Are there any Goblin threads?

All the Goblin threads are in Cashmere's woods. Haven't you read?

[cube]

I guess we really have to define "crash". In 1987, the DJIA dropped 508 points for a total of 22%. Today, using 11,000 as a reference point, it would have to drop between 2200 (20%) and 2750 (25%) to have the same percentage drop as in 1987. We now see ups and downs between 200 and 300 points quite often. What I've been seeing is a slow decline from 14000 to 11000, that's 3000 points, just short of 25%. Has the "crash" already happened or is it going to get worse?

good observation.

A lot of people don't know this but the stock market crash of 1929 (80% value loss) actually took 3 years to reach "rock bottom".
Getting back to the present the DIJA has already lost about 20% from last year's peak in October 2007. Assuming the same rate of decline, extend this out 3 years and you'll get a 1929 style crash. I think the stock market toady is where the real estate market was 1 year ago.....it was definitely crashing but MOST people couldn't see it. They were in denial.

[f2tornado]

We may yet see a day where the DOW is down 500 to 1000 points. I could only see something like a 1987 type drop if a major bank like Citi failed. The energy sector has helped the broader indices but if the oil demand destruction trend continues then this segment ironically lead to the next big drop down in the broader markets. The unemployment numbers are not there (yet) to support an extreme recession. Hell, even a McDonalds on the other side of my state is offering $14 an hour just to compete with oil service jobs. One thing that has given me pause is knowing the DOW is essentially at the same level it was in 1999. That is nearly 10 years of dead money with some tiny dividends to say thanks. If the stock market is a sign of wealth then the US hasn't created much over the last decade. Staglation in disguise. Retirement accounts worth the same they were 10 years ago along with 10 years of compound inflation. Better have a good broker or be a solid stock picker.

[gampy]

I wonder if the references, and correlations between 1929, and 1987 are not analogous. The markets (US and world) have changed their rules, somewhat, and protection mechanisms have been implemented to avoid such steep losses in short periods.

I think the market(s) have evolved somewhat, and each disaster brings lessons.

Instead of a crash, I am thinking of a topsy turvy slow roll to the bottom. I think crash might be the wrong term nowadays.

[vaseline2008]

Cube, the 5 stages of loss:

1. Denial
2. Anger
3. Bargaining
4. Sorrow
5. Acceptance

Boy, what's it going to be like if we hit stage 2? Are we there yet? To those of you who want to bottom fish, wait until it hits stage 3 [Bargaining].

[Micki]

-29 and -87 we didn't have the PPT (Presidents working group for the capital markets aka the plunge protection team).
The purpose it was created was to avoid catastrophic drops on the share market.
Noway we could have avoided larger drops than what we had so far with all the bad news from the big banks.