[mmasters]

Pure conjecture as I don't have anything to back up this. But what if there were major oil fields out there, already discovered and sitting in idle. Let's assume as well they have been kept hidden from the public. I'm not sure whether this is true or not but I do believe it is possible that a handful of major fields are being kept quiet on and will be opened in time.

Exploring the possibility of this of course would accept that there is a behind the scenes power structure with an agenda (i.e. the illumanati), for it would take considerable power to keep one or more major oilfields under the radar in this day and age.

There are motives for this. As known oil production goes into decline we will eventually hit the peak oil cliff. Opening major oil fields before this downslope could avert much disaster while still maintaining the global control structure and a large portion of society. Also, if one wanted to cause an immediete shift in geo-political circumstances, to persue a global agenda, opening a few major oil fields would surely do that (especially if they were outside of the middle east).

So I know this will probably attract some conspiracy hater comments though I think it is an interesting and valid discussion topic.

[Peleg]

It is a possibility, but not likely given the way economies work. There is no historical precedent for it either.

[3aidlillahi]

Plenty of people believe this stuff. Lindsey Williams is probably making a killing off of those people. He claims that ANWR is enough to supply the entire US for 100+ years (or was it 200 years?). And plenty of other crazy stuff.

It's so highly doubtful that someone would have found very large fields (10 bln or greater) which is what would be needed to pump up the prices. Smaller fields would be of no use. You can pump a billion barrel field dry and you probably won't affect the wellhead price by more than a quarter at peak production.

[Jotapay]

What if Major Oil Fields were being Hidden from the Public?

I guess we could continue to be completely irresponsible for a few more years. And then have the die off.

[ki11ercane]

And if it were true and mysteriously tomorrow "a new field of eleventy billion barrels of oil is discovered and is pumping into a home and car near you" I would think the entire world would call shens on that.

[alokin]

other conspiracy theory. I guess not. Because these fields would have to be explored, drilled etc. and you think no one takes care?
There would have been workers enginers and no one sells this great news to the newspaper? HIghly unlikely.

[JustaGirl]

I watched a doc. about Alaska the other day. Chevron has actually done one test well in ANWR. It is a tight well though, so they do not release any info that they found. They do a lot of these tight wells. Drill, then cap the well, and record the results, never releasing the info. So who knows, anything is possible. If they aren't pumping these wells though, it isn't going to do us any good

[essex]

Canargo, CNR, listed on Amex and in Oslo ( CNR.OL ) is sitting on up to 5 billion barrels in two discoveries but hedge funds who have bought heavily into the company have been manipulating the share price to scare off smaller investors so they can load up. Progress on oil flowing should be soon after a rights issue.
investorvillage.com is the place for research - check out peak_oil_investor's posts.
And yes, I have put my money where my mouth is.

[americandream]

The reasoning here is utterly stupid, yet it warrants a response if only to put this nonsense to rest. Now why would the owner of a valuable resource with the potential to generate him or her untold wealth in his/her rather brief lifespan, suppress that wealth vehicle. For the privilege of taking tea with the Illuminati? For the privilege of being able to use that exclusive handshake, or is it a wink or twitch.

No capitalist with half a brain is going to forego pleasure today for the possibility of an obscure handshake tomorrow. That's not how the system works. If there are any obscure clubs of ancient gentlemen lurking in the background, its more than likely somewhere these old doffers go to pass the time away for fear of boredom.

[Peleg]

For the privilege of taking tea with the Illuminati? For the privilege of being able to use that exclusive handshake, or is it a wink or twitch.

It's more like a knowing, the way darkness knows itself, the way cold knows itself. And so because of that the personal motive is out the door, wealth...please there are several million people on the planet today who could bankroll me at a million per year for life if it meant I would play the game, and that outlay would come out of the interest on their assets (most of which are hidden from view.) Remember Nelson Rockefeller's whole family was only worth a few million dollars when he testified during his Vice Presidential nomination hearing. It's amazing how they squandered JD's 700 million or so in 1888 dollars (probably the equivalent of 120 billion dollars today) in just 90 years. If they were that irresponsible do we really want them on the Trilateral Commission? There is more going on in the houses of the powerful than is apparent in the halls of government.

That being true I still doubt there is 400 billion barrels of easy chep oil in the Arctic. The geology seems unlikely to support it. But we have not considered Antarctica. That was once a warm place back in the Permian or something like that.

Again, will I ever know. Peak Oil is such a waste of time unless the die off happens in your lifetime. Are we going to pass off to our children the faith? 'It's not here yet son but you watch it will be coming anyday now. Make sure you keep a full root cellar and plenty of ammo.'

For a rather interesting note regarding elitism, have any of you ever googled 'Olivier Sarkozy'? 37 years old and already one of the hottest big deal men in the financial world. Pretty amazing, the Carlyle Group just hired him in March to help them with buy-outs. I think the name Sarkozy will be heard for a while.

[TheDude]

"Arctic oil" and "cheap"/"easy" are definitely terms that don't go together. Why muck about with UDW or polar oil or tar sands if they're sitting on easier to access fields? I agree with other that it doesn't jibe from the standpoint of simple economics.

IIRC even classified wells like the KIC in ANWR are filed with the SEC, too. Perhaps ROCKMAN will chime in here.
For the curious: Peak_Oil_Invest or

[cube]

Pure conjecture as I don't have anything to back up this. But what if there were major oil fields out there, already discovered and sitting in idle.

Thanks to the internet, it is impossible to "hide" information in the traditional sense.

however...
It is possible to "obfuscate" information.
For example, a person can over-inflate the performance specs for an electric car and understate it's price. This information can spread like a virus as gullible people pick up on the information and spread it even further!
1) Information is being manipulated from the bottom and not the top.
2) Information is technically not "hidden" but instead the truth is buried beneath a stack of misinformation.
It is perfectly possible to fool 51% of the population and that's all that is needed in a democracy.

To answer the original Q: no
According to your theory it would require information to be "hidden" and that is impossible. There are too many people on this planet with a big mouth who can't stop talking. We live in a world where there's more people who want to talk rather than listen.

[ROCKMAN]

Sure Dude.

Most important: as far as any well drilled on federal leases all the data is given to the gov't at the time the well is drilled. It might be a "tite hole" for Chevron but that means that won't release the data to other companies. Also, virtual all lease have a time clock on them: you either declare the leases productive and began a development program or you loose your rights to whatever there. Pretty much true for most private minerals as well as federal. An even bigger reason to make any discovery known by a public company is their desperation to increase reserve volume. Even though the price spike has bumped cash flow way, Wall Street still measures a company's value more on increasing reserve volume...not $ value. That's a big reason you'll see more and more company/field acquisitions even at absurdly high prices: the public oils have no choice...increase reserve VOLUMES or die.

Sorry for the delayed answer: I generally don’t do PO or any oil on weekends….family time. About the only way to not go off the deep end these days.

[Ronin]

It is a possibility, but not likely given the way economies work. There is no historical precedent for it either.

There is no historical precedent for peak oil either but we all know it is true.

As to the general question there is enough evidence for me to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that society's direction overall is manipulated by a group wealthy insane elite. That being said I would not put anything past that realm of manipulation including many parts of peak oil related topics, even going so far as to spread information peak oil is a scam perpetuated by them so intelligent people like us will dismiss the whole idea of societal influences as crazy.

I'm just spouting my traditional rambling here, but one thing I do know when considering human limitations is to never deal in absolutes. Good and Bad

[MadScientist]

Big NO to this question. Why?

The NWO needs more time. We (USA) still havent lost our guns or been microchipped, We don't even have the NAU yet. True, all these are close, but I'd say there's still a 10 year window before the boot stomping begins in ernest.

And if TSHTF before the NWO is in place, they lose. Therefore it is in their interest to maintain business as usual until their plans are complete.



That is why this is such a pivotal time in our history. Mine, and yours. You see they are getting desperate, pushing their many agendas faster than normal. Fast enough that even the average person can SEE, if they lift their head and look. THEY ARE NOT BENEVOLENT.

Daily they test our complacency. When the next "big scare" comes along, will you finally question authority?

Fight globalism - Buy and live locally. Promote Ron Paul.

[dohboi]

If they are being hidden, they should remain hidden. We have pretty well proven our inability to moderate our behavior in the interests of future generations. If some elite is artificially bringing on peak oil prematurely, I take my hat off to them.

Having said that, I find it unlikely in the extreme.

Conspiracy theories are comforting in the sense that they imply that at least someone is in control, even if they are people who don't necessarily have most of our short-term interests at heart. This for some is preferable to the reality that no one is really in control and everybody is just operating by the seat of their pants.

[ROCKMAN]

dohboi,

I'm with you. I wish me and the rest of the oil patch had that control. I was with Jimmy Carter when he wanted to start bumping gasoline taxes up way back when. But it doesn't work that way in my world. Just the opposite sometimes: I've seen more cases where a company would abandoned a producing zone in a well (that was still making a profit) to complete a shallower zone that might have 20X the cash flow potential. Companies are general given only 60% of the value of a "proved behind pipe reserve". Complete that zone and their book value immediately jumps. It's seldom economical to go back down and recomplete the deeper zone so that additional production is lost forever. I can't emphasize the pressure on public companies to increase reserves volumes. The price jump has already been factored in. The only way for a company to increase stock value now is to increase the reserve volume. And all the Big Oils and many of the biggest independent companies are facing their personal corporate PO right now. This is why you'll see more and more production acquisitions: companies can't find enough with the drill bit to offset their decline rate. This will be hard for everyone to believe but many public companies are near a very desperate state right now.

What is helping a lot of public oils right now is that the SEC law requires reserves to be valued on the price of oil/gas on 31 Dec 2007. A new valuation will be set this coming 31 Dec. Thus company values right now are based upon oil around $80/bbl if memory serves me. Most are expecting that number to be higher but Wall Street has also factored that in.

[Opies]

There is no historical precedent for peak oil either but we all know it is true.

Luckily there is a mathematical precedent that dictates so.


---------------------------
I would think a better plan, or reason for hiding giant fields would be to -allow- a dieoff. Then once a vast majority of the populous is gone, suddenly massive discoveries are made and the party begins anew with a lot less stress due to having a lot less mouths to feed. Combine these new massive fields with current renewables and new technologies from the spur of innovation caused by the major shortage and you have an ever longer party!

Imagining plots like these is fun, but hardly productive or realistic.

[JustaGirl]

Sure Dude.

Most important: as far as any well drilled on federal leases all the data is given to the gov't at the time the well is drilled. It might be a "tite hole" for Chevron but that means that won't release the data to other companies. Also, virtual all lease have a time clock on them: you either declare the leases productive and began a development program or you loose your rights to whatever there. Pretty much true for most private minerals as well as federal. An even bigger reason to make any discovery known by a public company is their desperation to increase reserve volume. Even though the price spike has bumped cash flow way, Wall Street still measures a company's value more on increasing reserve volume...not $ value. That's a big reason you'll see more and more company/field acquisitions even at absurdly high prices: the public oils have no choice...increase reserve VOLUMES or die.

Sorry for the delayed answer: I generally don’t do PO or any oil on weekends….family time. About the only way to not go off the deep end these days.

The tite well in ANWR was drilled in a location owned by Native Americans, so I'm not sure they did release any info to the government. The talking head from Chevron made it sound like they did not, only Chevron knew the results. They were also talking about using some newer drilling techniques on some of the other Alaskan fields to get better production. It was a very good documentary, but made me feel worse about our predicament than before

[ROCKMAN]

Yep Girl, I had read that it was drilled on the reservation. These days the NA's would have a clause in their lease requiring the data. But I suspect when they signed the original lease way back when they weren't sophisticated enough to know to demand the data. I can only guess but I suspect what Chevron found (if they did find anything interesting) were indications that the general area might be good for exploration and did not find a potentially commercial field. Even if they found data condemning the area they would keep the info a secret: we trade info like that with other companies for their proprietary data.