[jbrovont]

On ABC right now, they're doing a piece on how much less American's are driving. 40 Billion less so far this year compared to last year, and 9.6 Billion less this May compared to last May.

[Duende]

Absolutely mind-numbing numbers. Do you know how far that is? It's over 85 million trips to the moon and back! I don't know what's more shocking: that driving has been cut back that much by Americans or that it's only 3.7% of the total!

As I've said in other posts though, yes - demand is coming down, and will continue to do so. Jack and Jane American will cut back their trips from 10 per day to 6. But that's just gravy. Easy efficiencies. When things get comfy again, the price will rise, and drivers will cut back again. But this time, the cuts drivers make will be more tougher, and the efficiency gains will be less: it's easier to go from 10 trips per day to 6 than from 6 to 2. It's at this point that things start getting kooky.

[jbrovont]

Absolutely mind-numbing numbers. Do you know how far that is? It's over 85 million trips to the moon and back! I don't know what's more shocking: that driving has been cut back that much by Americans or that it's only 3.7% of the total!

You can say that again! They made two interesting claims during the piece.

The first was that people were cutting back because of fuel price, and to "protect the environment." Then they had a guy talking about the severely negative impact of the reduction in comsumption and how it was hurting the economy.

The second claim I thought was strange - they said the recent fall in gasoline prices was the result of reduced demand.

[joeltrout]

Another piece of truth. Demand destruction is coming strong.

joeltrout

[copious.abundance]

--> LINK <--

Miles driven in May drop 3.7 pct: government
Mon Jul 28, 2008 8:32pm BST
By Tom Doggett

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Soaring gasoline prices and a weak economy combined in May to reduce the number of highway miles traveled during the month by a record 3.7 percent, the U.S. Transportation Department said on Monday.

The 9.6 billion miles less traveled was the biggest drop ever for any May, when traffic usually increases due to the Memorial Day holiday and the beginning of summer vacations.

During the first five months of the year, highway travel was down 29.8 billion miles, or 2.4 percent, from the same period in 2007.

"The decline in American driving is deepening," U.S. Transportation Secretary Mary Peters said.

"During the past seven months, Americans drove 40.5 billion miles less than they did over the same period last year. It's the equivalent of 200 round trips to the sun, if you want to put it into perspective," she said.

Three of the biggest monthly declines in highway travel, each more than 9 billion miles, have occurred since December.

[...]

[shady28]

Something that isn't really discussed in the article was that people are also driving more efficinet cars.

The last I saw, gasoline demand was down well over 5%, which means the average driver is getting 1-2% more MPG on top of not driving as much.

It's very interesting when you consider that, until the last month or so, employment has held up and the economy has been more or less flat.

How much more demand destruction is coming in the 2nd half of 08 as the economy sinks into recesssion?

[JustaGirl]

I still don't see a lot of people car pooling. I had to drive to the airport a few weeks ago during rush hour & I would guess 80% or more of the cars only had one person. I don't see many scooters or motorcycles either. But with the drivers out here, I wouldn't want to be on a scooter either

[CarlosFerreira]

Something that isn't really discussed in the article was that people are also driving more efficinet cars.

The last I saw, gasoline demand was down well over 5%, which means the average driver is getting 1-2% more MPG on top of not driving as much.

I've seen a report here in Portugal that stated a 5% decrease in demand. Prices have come down a bit, but are staying high. Fisherman are on the strike from next Friday until the government starts financing some of the Diesel, of so they say.

Funny thing, Diesel price has come down a couple of cents but is essentially staying high. My guess is the sellers are searching for the optimum price, the one where margin is maximum and demand stays high. Essentially, they're trying to get the most buck for every gallon you buy.

[aahala2]

The media and the US public are having a field day over the
decline in driving and gasoline consumption.

It is, in my opinion, big news. . .about almost nothing.
The price of gasoline from 12 months earlier is 30-50% higher
and we have responded by dropping consumption by perhaps
2%.

Here are the numbers of finished gasoline supplied from the EIA website (thousand barrels per month):

2007 - Jan -May
275,451
252,180
284,506
276,463
292,463

2008 - Jan -May
273,235
256,422
281,141
273,501
285,685

You do the math.(The slight increase in Feb,2007-2008 is
what the numbers are)

If the price of something rises sharply over a short period of
time, you can choose to reduce your purchases. You then have the right to complain about prices.

If you continue buying nearly the same amount, that's
your right. You do not have the additional right to bellyache
about it. Nor does the media have the right to boast about
such tiny declines considering the level of price increases.

[Tyler_JC]

It's not just decreased driving that is pushing gasoline demand down.

Recreational boating, ATVs, go-carts, RVs, and the other gas-hogs are decreasing in popularity.

Instead of taking an RV camping, people are driving their Honda and sleeping in tents.

That has at least some impact on gasoline demand.

At the marina where my dad keeps his boat, no one goes out anymore. The marina is mostly a blue collar dock with lots of carpenters and plumbers who own small motorboats.

With marina gasoline reaching $4.50 a gallon, boats have become party barges. People sit around on their boats and drink beer instead of driving around the harbor.

I'd estimate that gasoline consumption from the boats in that marina is down at least 1/3 compared to last year.

[CarlosFerreira]

Yes, the numbers are seasonal. The 5% decrease in Portugal I quoted was against the same month, last year.

This is probably just trimming the fat. The first few pounds are quite easy to lose, and some people will even go around happily saying they feel better with taking the train, of bus, or subway (I do). The pain starts when you have to leave the job because you can't afford the commute. There you'll see demand destruction.

With marina gasoline reaching $4.50 a gallon, boats have become party barges. People sit around on their boats and drink beer instead of driving around the harbor.

When will we see peak beer? And Beer Demand Destruction?

[MD]

80,000,000,000 fewer miles this year? That should kill demand for about a million new vehicles.

Anyone want a few shares of GM stock? Cheap?

[skeptik]

it's easier to go from 10 trips per day to 6 than from 6 to 2. It's at this point that things start getting kooky.

Yup... at this point Americans start to go European and start demanding a row of mom and pop stores within walking distance and ...gasp!!... a bus service to get them to work in the city.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/200 ... sale_N.htm

As a Brit, I have been half expecting to read a news report like this for some time. The outer suburbs have to adapt, or as some already have, die. When visiting the USA its always amazed me how far people in some suburbs have to drive just to buy a pint of milk!

One of the best things the USA could do in response to Peak Oil would be to radically overhaul its (IMHO tyrannical) zoning laws.

[f2tornado]

Nor does the media have the right to boast about
such tiny declines considering the level of price increases.

You have to start somewhere but I agree the drop in US demand is small relative to increase in price. Just like it takes time for an increase in oil price to trickle through the entire economy, it takes time for demand destruction to cycle through. The first step is the easiest which is drive less. The next step is harder because people will need to give up some "freedom" and car pool or use public transit options. Taking the next step requires buying a more fuel efficient vehicle. This requires a significant investment from the operator and thus will usually come later than the first two options. I have little doubt as leases expire and older vehicles die from mechanical failure or collision we will see far greater use of this option. I was surprised to see new SUV sales in Canada fell to 751 units last month. Yes, only 751 (one half of 1% sales) new SUVs were sold in the whole country last month and I can only assume many of those were hybrid Tahoes or E85 flexfuel. There is a relative scarcity of high mpg cars for sale right now and I expect further demand reduction as more of these vehicles get produced. Some folks will also make the major step of moving to a location closer to work and services. The US has a ways to go down the DD curve so long as oil prices remain high. The current fleet of vehicles in the U.S. averages about 20 mpg. The Prius hybrid gets about 50 mpg. The US consumes about 21 Mbd of which roughly half goes into fuel. Simply converting the fleet to 50 mpg average without any additional lifestyle changes would result in an additional 6.3 Mbd of demand destruction (a little under 50% of current imports). Also worth noting the 50 versus 20 results in a $1.60/gallon price equivalent to the $4 most were paying just a short time ago. Mix in some lifestyle changes, domestic drilling, EVs/Hydro/CNG/etc, and avoid plastic bottles and other future landfill refuse and we probably wouldn't need to import a drop of oil in a couple decades. Perhaps there isn't much choice in the matter as the import supply gradually runs thin between now and then. Perhaps what people underestimate most are the various cultural nuances related to fuel consumption. Big SUVs and large trucks were essentially a fashion trend during the 90's into the early part of this decade while Prius drivers were considered tree hugging liberal hippies. Amazing how quick things can change. Those massive accessorized hulks of steel and chrome are now considered fashion faux pas. Some might be surprised to discover this can be a much stronger force for change than any financial incentive. This tidbit alone suggests we may just be seeing the tip of the iceberg... or so I hope.

[Byron100]

As a Brit, I have been half expecting to read a news report like this for some time. The outer suburbs have to adapt, or as some already have, die. When visiting the USA its always amazed me how far people in some suburbs have to drive just to buy a pint of milk!

One of the best things the USA could do in response to Peak Oil would be to radically overhaul its (IMHO tyrannical) zoning laws.

I highly agree! It's insane to live in a place that's 4 miles from the nearest grocery store, which is surprisingly common in some of the outer suburbs here in the Atlanta metro area (and driving a car in these shopping districts is a royal pain in the a$$...having to wait 3 times at the light just to make a goddamned left turn...ugh!).

Good thing I live in an area that was built in the 60's, when zoning laws made a bit more sense. I can actually walk to the store to get some milk...and to get my haircut, and to mail something at the post office. My bank is right there too, as well as the friendly neighborhood diner. And yet I live in a single family home with a big backyard and thirty-foot spacing between each house. So what's so hard about having sensible zoning laws? It's been done before, so I don't see why it can't be done now.

[cube]

80,000,000,000 fewer miles this year? That should kill demand for about a million new vehicles.

Anyone want a few shares of GM stock? Cheap?

Day traders have a saying "catch a falling knife"
It's when a person tries to get smart and pick the bottom of a stock that's falling in price.
Most people who *attempt* this usually keep their mouths shut afterwards, for obvious reasons.

[vaseline2008]

Here in Orange County California the freeways and streets look like business as usual...

On a side note, I was watching a PBS show showing life in Saudi Arabia, the most common hobby is driving their cars out on their sand dunes since a gallon of gas is around $1 there...reminded me of Glamis.

[MrBill]

For much of the 20th century, most rural U.S. counties saw their population shrink as mechanization of agriculture eliminated jobs and pushed residents toward the big cities.

But that began to shift in the mid-1970s, as Americans began to flock back into rural areas.

Today, an estimated 50 million Americans -- about 17 percent of the population -- reside in the countryside. Only one-fifth of those live in so-called exurban areas -- on the fringes of cities. The rest live in places like Tipton, Iowa, the town of 3,200 where Bob Bird moved a decade ago to enjoy the simplicity -- and affordability -- of rural life.

source: Rural America feels extra pain as gas prices rise

Experts say a number of factors contributed to the urban exodus and the rural renaissance, including frustration with housing costs, schools, crime and congestion associated with cities.

But cheap gas prices also played a role, making it possible for Americans to enjoy the best of both worlds: the peace, quiet and perceived affordability of rural living while still getting paid in big city dollars.

"Commutes of 35, 40 miles each way are not uncommon out here in the country," said Chuck Hassebrook, the executive director of the Center for Rural Affairs, a policy analysis and advocacy group focused on rural life in the upper Midwest and Great Plains. "So higher gas prices hurt."

Higher gas prices also make rural life a lot less idyllic, and less attractive to the urban refugees they rely on to sustain their populations.

In rural areas on the fringe of urban areas, the so-called exurbs where an estimated 10.8 million people lived in 2000, according to the Census, access to commuter rail networks or car pools gives residents alternatives.

But out in the real country, where another 40 million people live, there are few alternatives to the automobile. Telecommuting -- working an office job from home -- hasn't really taken root. As a result, the pain of higher fuel prices is magnified.

"There's no car-pooling out here," said Anna Marie Percuoco, a stay-at-home mom in Long Grove, Iowa, population 600, whose husband drives a pickup truck 30 miles a day to his job in the city of Davenport.