[pdc4rKWs3qXkOnuqv7Lh]

One year? Two at the most? It is a mathematical certainty?
Anything we do will be but like rearranging the chairs on the deck of the Titanic?

Omega Point or Olduvai Gorge? Last man standing or 'Exchange in Abundance'? Stone Age 2.0 or Star Trek: The Next Generation
What is real? Who to believe? Waiting for what, an absolution that will never come or a cascading supernova uncontrolled domino chain reaction in 2012?

The entire world is built on fictitious wealth, but maybe so is existence itself? From nothing back to nothing?
Zero Ontology, Nonduality, Quantum Entanglement,
What is IT all about ?

[comprehensive]

You wouldn't believe the truth no way,
But if I were you I wouldn't take out any 5 year loans.

Actually you have very little time to downsize to the point of being foot mobile.

[Zardoz]

The entire world is built on fictitious wealth...

Yep. It's the biggest scam in the history of the human race. It's worked pretty well so far, but truth will out, eventually.

It's just a matter of time...

[eXpat]

Our society is like a body that was healthy once, but now has several wounds, is bleeding from them and nothing has been done to correct/stop this (I don´t think that this can be stopped anyway).
Some of the wounds that affect the body are:
-Subprime crisis.
-Financial worldwide crisis.
-Fall of Petrodollar.
-Rising costs of Energy.
-Rising costs to produce and distribute food.
-Peak oil.
-Rising population.
-Decline of drinking water.

Is debatable when exactly the patient is going to die, we know that as the time passes by, is getting worst. There´s no doubt about the outcome though.

[Arsenal]

Is debatable when exactly the patient is going to die, we know that as the time passes by, is getting worst. There´s no doubt about the outcome though.

But.. but .. but.. They always save the patient on ER.

Arsenal

[JustaGirl]

This is just my opinion, but I see the US economy crashing hard between December & February. TPTB will keep this circus going for as long as possible. When it does go down it will more than likely bring down several other world economies as well, Australia for one. I think this will cause a lot of demand destruction(some will disagree, a lot will depend on what china & india do) which will put peak oil on the back burner for a few years. Prep now though. When it does come crashing down, you may not have a job to even buy preps.

Meanwhile, we will have people that won't be able to heat their homes THIS winter. I think we will hear a lot of stories of people freezing come spring. Then come summer people won't be able to afford to cool their homes. Each year getting a little worse than the year before.

I honestly don't see a Mad Max world, anytime soon, if ever. History has so far shown us most people are too lazy and will probably stay at home & whine about it.
If Iran is bombed, then all bets are off. I don't even want to guess what happens then

[sittinguy]

If DC gets bombed hopefully they will do it when they are in session, and then we can reelect some good people that might do the right thing for the country.

[FoxV]

What is IT all about ?

“the Question and the Answer are mutually exclusive. Knowledge of one logically precludes knowledge of the other. It is impossible that both can ever be known about the same universe.”
- Prak, Hitch Hiker's Guide to the Galaxy

But mostly its about frogs.

[Arsenal]

If DC gets bombed hopefully they will do it when they are in session, and then we can reelect some good people that might do the right thing for the country.

Amen.. One of the plagues of this country are full time politicians.

Arsenal

[eXpat]

Is debatable when exactly the patient is going to die, we know that as the time passes by, is getting worst. There´s no doubt about the outcome though.

But.. but .. but.. They always save the patient on ER. Arsenal

This is not ER. This is Night of the Living Dead,

[mercurygirl]

But mostly its about frogs.

I have a pet tadpole named Cosmo that's turning into a frog. Then I'll release him in my woods.

[JustaGirl]

What if Washington D.C. is bombed? With one of those little backpack jobbies stuffed with Soviet plutonium?

RIP the Smithsonian and dorothy's ruby slippers

That's another, I have no idea & I don't want to think about it situations.

[tex123]

I have wondered how long things can go on the way they have for quite some time now. I ask my husband all the time "how is it that the entire country has not gone under? How does this house of cards continue to stand?" There must be a lot more to the U.S. economy than I will ever understand. I suppose it has much to do with the faith and lending of the rest of the world that has kept us from collapsing already.

I think it will be more like the slow frog boil than a fast crash, don't know how long that will take either but I believe it has already begun. I believe there is time to prep (not really sure how much you can do since dire straits may continue for a very long time) but I think it is worth at least trying to put yourself in the best possible location. (wherever that is)

[lionstones]

Last week our shower head broke. It split at the base when I turned it on to get degrubified. It's one of those types that is connected to a polymer hose. I turned off the water to remove the head and figured I would just use the hose as I was in desperate need of becoming clean. Having tossed the broken shower head into the trash can I turned the water back on only to be sprayed mercilessly by a hose that was no longer under any kind of control. As it whipped about the shower stall and smacked me a few times I managed to keep my cool and end the chaos by turning off the water yet again.

What does this plumbing anecdote have to do with the economy? Well, everything. The money system in this country (even the entire world) has become just like that shower hose. It is out of control. Like I couldn't control the hose, the Fed (which it is not) cannot control the "economy". It never could. The chaos of my wild and free hose ended when I shut off the water. The chaos of the "economy" will end when the dollar (a fiat currency) and the Fed (which it is not) dies.

How will this happen? You can expect inflation (see shadowstats.com) which is currently at ~12+% and moving towards 20% (United States of Zimbabwe?). Then you can expect The Greater Depression (your grandparents depression will be more like a picnic compared to what's in store for us). Then there is a darned good chance that we will see a collapse. It's guaranteed that many individual states will collapse. Wait a little and you could get a great deal on the Brooklyn bridge. No joke. Then comes the unthinkable for many people, this experiment in "liberty" will end. Not with a bang but, under the crushing weight of it's own ignorance and arrogance.

Why? I'm going to throw out an astronomical number here...it is a close as is feasible representation of TOTAL debt owed by the US government, the state and local governments, aggregate business and corporate debt and finally, US consumer debt...are you ready?
$60,000,000,000,000.00

I hope I typed that correctly. It should read 60 TRILLION dollars. At last count in the last quarter of last year (2007) it stood at over 57 trillion. I figured I would err on the conservative side calling it only 60 trillion some 7 months later. To cut that number down to make it understandable it pencils out to $10,000.00 (ten thousand dollars) of debt for every living soul on the face of this earth. Unless you live in Zimbabwe of course, then it pencils out to around 10 gozillion dollars give or take a few wheelbarrows of cash.

To sharpen the focus a bit here for you this collapse is NOT just about money. No, there are many other black swans circling as we speak. Examples are:
Oil) regardless of the origin of oil (dinosaurs or abiotic processes in the earth) the outcome is the same...we are running out of cheap oil. Energy will now have a price. A big price. Why? Time. Time is our enemy here if we choose to continue using oil as a main energy source. If oils' origin is abiotic it will take time for good ol' Ma earth to spew out some more. Yeah! Yeah! I've heard all the talk of great discoveries off the Falklands, the North Slopes, the tar sands, the oil sands and Wyoming shales among others. Time remains the enemy. Furthermore, cost is also an enemy. Oh! And just to pour salt into a gaping wound, it requires massive amounts of energy and some technologies which haven't even been invented yet to drill this oil. Then, of course, there are the government blockades as well as their skim that further "enhances" the price that we pay for oil not only now but also in the future. Oh! Then there's that time bugaboo again. You see, it will take a bare minimum of t least 5 years to get any of that oil from these great discoveries to market. More than likely it will be 10 years...silly me! Cerebral flatulence strikes again! For a moment I thought government might move rapidly and approve the building of refineries since it would save their own behinds too. I don't know what I was thinking.

The above is the foundation upon which American prosperity rests. Without cheap oil America as we know it now (this includes everything from Huggies to the governments and their millions of employees, appointees and selected officials) will become a brief chapter in future world history. Maybe China will look after us like we looked after the UK.

Next is...
Food) Remember the days of free government cheese? It will never be seen again in the lifetime of any person on this board. In fact, there are absolutely NO government reserves now. they are all gone. The granaries, the warehouses and even the shelves are bare. Right now they are empty. No emergency rations or supplies. One bad year of weather and Americans will literally be starving in the streets. From the corporate angle you would think that this is an excellent money making opportunity. After all they do own and control the intellectual property rights on all major crops in the US, Iraq and elsewhere in the world. Furthermore, they also own the seed. Ooops! I almost forgot, they own most of the arable land and are buying more all the time. IT seems also that some smart folks have been watching this and now they too are buying up land, fertilizer companies, farm implement manufacturers and grain storage facilities. I know for a fact that they are not doing this out of any altruistic motives. They smell profit. Big profit. Funny thing is, can't make money if you can't get the goods to market (see Oil above)

Next is...
Water) Ever here of the Ogalala aquifer? It's that HUGE aquifer under the breadbasket of America. Well, after all these years it's not so huge any more. Where prairie farmers once drew water at 30 ft. they now have to drill too 100 ft. and beyond to hit water. Let's not forget all the energy and expense of pumping water from those depths. Despite the melting in the arctic and the loss of so many glaciers there just isn't and hasn't been enough precipitation to replenish the Ogalala. In fact, there hasn't been enough precipitation to replenish all aquifers and waterways in America. But wait! There's more! This is happening all over the earth! Why? Too many people wasting water. the water cycle requires our old friend, time, in order to work it's magic. It also requires sensible use on the part of affluent humans.

Of course, there are other factors....
Cosmos) Al Whore? Oh you mean Gore! Same difference. I have an inconvenient truth for him global warming is not anthropogenic. (I had a quarter and thought I'd spend it while it still had a little value and I bought that big word) Global warming is NOT caused by humans. I suppose it would be best to call it (for you Trekkers) Alpha Quadrant warming. Yes, we're having galactic-sized mess. Must be all that UFO traffic. they keep buzzing earth because they want to have a confab...something about a Cygnus 7 Accord or whatever. Ol' Al Whore is their spokesthing (he's really a metamorph you know, that's why Tipper is drugged). Back to reality. Every planet in the solar system is warming (see NASA). On a more local note, here on earth the jetstreams (see NOAA or the Weather Channel) are slowly moving northward. This means warmer weather and warmer winds are moving northward toward the arctic and southward toward the antarctic. You did read about New Hampshire's tornado last week, right? When was NH last hit by a tornado? As a bonus (that's NO extra charge!), the sunspot cycle hasn't kicked on yet. This means only of two (2) outcomes here, we enter another Maunder Minimum (no sunspots, global and solar system cooling) OR the sunspot cycle kicks in with a vengeance, blows power grids, vaporizes satellites, we may even get to see a cosmic thunderbolt. This sun cycle is due to peak in 2012-2013.

Enough examples. Time to tie this together for you. All of these are just starting to impact us now. They will not, thankfully all come at once. They will, however, comes as cars on a train, in succession, one after the other, more or less. Nothing like getting kicked while you're down, eh! And just think, I didn't even get to diseases and stuff. Just for fun look up wheat rust and HLB (Huang Long Bing) citrus disease in Florida. Didn't mention JIT (Just In Time) warehousing/delivery. No place in the US of A has more than 7 days of supplies (foods and medicines) nearby. Whoever gets to the store first with the most cash wins.

So you see, it's not just the "economy". We have a confluence of situations and events coming that will, I believe, bring both, the Greater Depression AND the ultimate collapse of the American empire including it's governments.

How much time do we have? Not much. The festivities have already started. The "economy" could take a dive as early as the autumn. I'm betting on $25/oz silver, $1200/oz gold and $150/bbl oil by the end of this year. A Dow of 7500 by the middle of next year. We still have about another year of mortgage collapse ahead of us. A dollar collapse maybe next year (2009) All in all the ride will be at full speed in the next 3-5 years.

If you aren't doing so already it would be a good time to convert your dollars to gold, silver, lead, toilet paper and other useful supplies. Do yourself a favor and add in some luxury items for you and the loved ones as well as for trading purposes (liquor, guitar strings, chocolates, medicines, etc. This is no time to whine or snivel. Kiss your 401k goodbye, forget social security (there never was any such thing anyway), if you had any private retirement nest egg, stocks, bonds or other investment vehicles, cash them all out now. Get busy gardening. Get busy networking locally with people who actually produce things and have useful skill sets like machining, welding, woodworking, repairing non-electronic things, and any of a host of other useful skills. Get some skills under your belt. Follow your talents and interests Pay off your debts if at all possible. Sell off any useless junk laying around. Shore up your domicile (windows, insulation, check the heating/cooling, check the plumbing and electricity as well as any backup systems). If you've been considering any alterations NOW is the time to get them done. To use an old sailor's phrase, "it's time to batten down the hatches". If you're in a safe area, good on you. If not, it might be wise to work on improving your situation now. Time grows short for big changes like moving to a new domicile. Own a business? Sell it now if possible. Have expensive and unhealthy habits? Might be a good time to consider dropping them or plan to supply them by alternatives. This is also a good time to think like a recovering addict....think about today. Deal with today. The past is gone. And truly, tomorrow never comes. You are alive now. Live now. When the storm passes then you can think about tomorrow.

Don't feel alone, there are many in this boat. Don't try to be perfect as no one is fully prepared, no not even me or the good folks here. Some will be more prepared than others, that's just the way things work. Don't worry about them. Focus on you and yours.

No, I'm not a "doom and gloomer". This is simply my assessment of current situations and what I see coming. No, I do not want to see this happen. I've never been a fan of pain and misery and work assiduously to avoid any of it if at all possible. However, I have learned to come in when I see a storm coming. I can't stop the rain any more than I can stop this coming train wreck. And quite honestly, like dealing with a splinter, it's best to pull it out so healing can begin. I've been watching this coming for years now and I really would like to see it get over with quickly so I can get about rebuilding.

[patience]

lionstones,

Great post! I see things much as you do. My current focus is attempting to sort out the sequence of coming events, in order to better position ourselves. Here's the best I've been able to figure out, barring black swans.

1) Financial crash. As banks implode, and the FDIC is deplted, the national debt limit will be expanded beyond comprehension, and Govt spending, a la, CCC and WPA will rule the day. Dollar goes down, oil and real commodities go up, and we all are poverty stricken. Just in Time kicks our butts as shelves empty due to the high cost of maintaining inventory, and infrequent deliveries due to high shipping costs, so look for trouble at Wally World, burglaries, truck hijackings, and shopping cart hijackings. TIMING? Winter of 2008 will be tough, from bank collapses, rising commodity prices, and heating cost stress to maxxed out consumers. Look for more cuts in State and Federal spending (for all but handouts to the masses), cutbacks in Payrolls, unemployment going to historic levels. I think that will hold together till 08 elections, then it hits the fan after we have a new Prez. My goal is to be as near fully prepped as possible by the 3rd quarter of 2008.

2) Resource conflicts. Could be as benign as food for oil, or as bad as we can imagine. Given that we are at PO, on a plateau, and have some demand destruction in the US, This could take a while to manifest, giving us a bit of time (1 to 3 years) to get our energy ducklings lined up on a personal basis. I would want to be rid of all gas guzzlers and own very cheap transportation ASAP. Buy a durable bike NOW, and enough stuff to keep it going a long time.

3) Food shortages. Likely the sort of protectionism that we have seen with rice this past year will begin to be more common. So, if it is an import, wherever you live, it will get more expensive and less available. TIMING: Depends more than other things on the weather and political considerations, so it's hard to predict, but one bad crop year anywhere significant to food supplies would do it. Financial problems could make food unaffordable for many, and expensive for the rest quite soon, so I want to have the pantry stocked, and food production going well this year.

4) Water and climate. These are intertwined for most people. In the Midwest and South US we had a sever drought last year, which threatened our city water supply in Indiana. As climate changes, (I don't know enough to debate why, so I just watch what is happening) then a personal water supply is a paramount consideration. Food production is directly impacted by climate change, and makes it imperative to address your personal food production as it relates to the changes you see. We are putting in a big garden irrigation tank this year. I want it in place for next year's use.

My bottom line: Get it together THIS YEAR.

[Revi]

I am thinking like you. This fall is the time to get things together. We have bought next year's heating oil and have a cord or two of wood ready. I see 2008 as being tough, but 2009 seems like the year when things get really bad. I think next year it will be hard to get the things we need.

We are getting ready for the tough times ahead now.

[comprehensive]

The economy is going to break its face,


put your money into leather shoes, canvas tents, propane tank (large-buy don't lease) canvas sleeping bags, hiking water handheld purifiers, stainless steel pots, canvas work gloves (you can sew them), and SHOE GOO., etc.

gasoline, propane, oil for the car, cases from wal mart, etc
guitar strings bike tires and anything you may need.

even a can of FLAT FIX will be hard to get.

pay off all loans cut up credit cards, sell the house rent instead

and

buy some good leather hiking shoes, you are going to need them.