I don't see any indication it's going to crash fast and hard. While it certainly is profitable to insure some measure of conspicuous consumption, I doubt there would be any point to a "crash" in the sense that it has around these forums since profit would also "crash". That's not even looking at common sense limitations on oil production, eg refinery capacity, which for a company involved in oil has to be maximized in order to justify a decent ROI. Either oil production will plateau, or lots of new refineries would only operate for months maybe a few years.dohboi wrote:"EVs will be introduced gradually"
Right, that's what I just said. Somehow you seem to find that comforting. Do you think oil depletion is going to happen at a nice, stready, gradual pace? It may, but the people in the field are saying that every trick in the book has already been used to lengthen the plateau, so now when it crashes, its going to crash fast and hard.
Similarly, alternatives to most current oil use such as cycling, public transit, and more efficient vehicles like mopeds and the like present alternatives that are far less costly initially for consumers looking to enter those markets. Not to mention the dreaded "D" word in the US of A. The VMT is down in the states for the first time in three decades. No one knows what will happen, but given how people have behaved in the past I wonder if/when the rate decline in consumption will out pace the rate of decline in production and vice versa.
Compared to some on this forum, people over at TOD are downright realists, and even they come up w/ some pretty big numbers. At least we still have ~5 months to make up for lost pricing eh?dohboi wrote:Maybe it won't, but so far things have been developing faster than many on this forum thought they would. And this is about the doomiest crowd in town.