[Armageddon]

This can't be good. That will give them 4 carriers over there ready for action. Goodbye Iran. Carriers

[RSFB]

The first question which should be asked is, "Is the Kuwait Times a reliable source?"

[Cashmere]

The first question which should be asked is, "Is the Kuwait Times a reliable source?"

Jerusalem Post is given as source now. Although completely biased, probably reliable.

EDIT - whOOPS, never mind - JPost cites kuwait times.

EDIT 2 -

I don't know.

War is unpredictable. That's the bitching thing about it. If the U.S. was completely sure of the outcome, they would have either acted already or decided not to act already.

[RSFB]

Even if this is true, it would probably just be a show of force and/or putting pressure on Iran. That seems to be the case most of the times aircraft carriers are deployed...

Still not a comfortable thought, assuming it's true.

[benzoil]

Don't we have this discussion every time they rotate carrier groups in and out of the Gulf? Every X months, when they replace a carrier group, they have one extra group in the region until the one departs.

IF you were insane enough to start a third war in the middle east you would probably do it when you had an extra carrier group on hand, but it does not automatically mean war when the US has an extra carrier group in the Gulf.

[RSFB]

Don't we have this discussion every time they rotate carrier groups in and out of the Gulf? Every X months, when they replace a carrier group, they have one extra group in the region until the one departs.
IF you were insane enough to start a third war in the middle east you would probably do it when you had an extra carrier group on hand, but it does not automatically mean war when the US has an extra carrier group in the Gulf.

Would 4 carrier groups be unprecedented?

[gollum]

I think, anything over 2 carriers on station (not in process of rotating) is a definate red flag. Any other deployments overseas (patriot missiles, air wings, subs, support vessles)?

[mos6507]

[Minvaren]

They've had three in the area when rotating before for certain. Four is probably an extra nudge to Iran at this point.

[BigTex]

I see the window for action as being pretty small.

Probably after the Olympics and before the November election.

One way or another, we will see a resolution of this drama pretty soon.

[benzoil]

Don't we have this discussion every time they rotate carrier groups in and out of the Gulf? Every X months, when they replace a carrier group, they have one extra group in the region until the one departs.
IF you were insane enough to start a third war in the middle east you would probably do it when you had an extra carrier group on hand, but it does not automatically mean war when the US has an extra carrier group in the Gulf.

Would 4 carrier groups be unprecedented?

No. It's happened a couple of times before at least. If I recall, usually on or two of the carriers are often the smaller Iwo Jima-type or "helicopter" carriers.

The idea is that the replacement carrier arrives on scene before the old one departs. It makes sense from an operational stand point because you're never out of position. It also gives you a periodic increase in force - useful if, say, you want to keep the straights of Hormuz open after an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities.

Frankly, I'd be more worried if they announced they were increasing the number of destroyers. That'd tell me they expected to have to perform escort duty (like the USS Stark (a frigate) was when it got hit) or expected an increased missile threat.

I agree with BigTex that there is a narrow window if it will happen, but I think the window extends past the election if Obama wins. If McCain wins, he'll likely carry on Bush's policies. Obama won't. Therefore, IF you're insane enough to start a third war in the middle east, then you might be insane enough to do it after the election before you leave office.

Net result: worry somewhat about the extra carrier group arrival, but this isn't a case of "mobilization means war."

[Twilight]

They have had four before, in fact more if you count the smaller conventional ones. It is the same old story.

[Leanan]

Here is the original article from the Kuwait Times:

Govt finalizing war emergency plan

[dorlomin]

Would 4 carrier groups be unprecedented?

No. It's happened a couple of times before at least. If I recall, usually on or two of the carriers are often the smaller Iwo Jima-type or "helicopter" carriers.

Occasionaly the Kitty Hawk is counted as a third if it is operating in the Indian Ocean or the edge of the Pacific. Also the Charles de Gualle gets involved and counted when he is operating in support of operations in Afghanistan. I believe they have had 4 carriers within a weeks sailing distance of the Gulf at least once before.

[rdsaltpower]

lol! good one mos6507, love that pic

[jlw61]

I don't know how up-to-date or reliable these links are but:

CV Locations

US Navy Fact Sheet

[jupiters_release]

Just as the consequences of overshoot are inevitable, so is war. The anticipation gets hammered in the media until we're so tired of hearing about it we'll actually want it to happen. PR psychology is very simple and works quite well. Iran is taking so much longer than Iraq only because there's a severe law of diminishing returns when conditioning the public with the same set of bullsh*t of a few years prior, not to mention the global economic implications of war w/Iran make Iraq and 9/11 seem insignificant. All in due time, have faith the central banks know what's best for them.

[benzoil]

All in due time, have faith the central banks know what's best for them.

In the long run (> 5 years out) I can see where this might be true, but I can't believe that the massive price spike in oil that would result from even a 2 week "war" in the gulf that closed the Straights of Hormuz or damaged shipping would be in the best interests of the central banks right now. They've got their hands full with the fallout from the current financial crisis.

[WyoDutch]

We won't stop sticking our big, red nose into everyone else's business until the day arrives that we pull back a bloody stump... in the form of a burning carrier or other event of similar graphic impact.

If we do sucker-punch Iran and they get a few licks in... we'll piss and moan like the schoolyard bully that took a shot to his own nose.

[PeakingAroundtheCorner]

Yup, that's the post I was checking for before posting it myself.