[JohnConnor]

Getting the ball rolling...

What could the U.S. begin to do in preparation for Peak Oil for the eventual threats to national sovereignty with respect to our defense services requiring huge amounts of fuel to operate in even the most basic manner?

Massively increased illegal immigration, boat people, insurrections, terrorist activity, general anarchy/panic, etc...

[TheDude]

PEAKING OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION: IMPACTS, MITIGATION, & RISK ...

Analysis of various unconventional supply sources in a crash program scenario. For approaches to rationing read up on US experiences in WWII. 35 MPH speed limit, for starters, and near universal carpooling, enforced by law and encouraged by propaganda for good measure.

[Roccland]

Getting the ball rolling...

Oh - the ball has been rolling for about 250 years now. Gaining mass and speed.

At some point - in the very near future - it is going to hit a brick wall at about 500 mph.

My plan includes staying out of the path of the rolling ball. In fact - so far away - no sound will be heard upon collision...

Perhaps not far enough away to feel the earth shrug. Then silence.

It is at that point - that we can - "get the ball rolling" again...only this time a bit wiser.

Perhaps.

[Iaato]

About the time we need a false flag operation to distract everyone and initiate martial law, we'll have enough NDS (National Debt Slaves) to staff a domestic militia and a mercenary army to go looking for oil.

[vilemerchant]

Getting the ball rolling. What could the U.S. begin to do in preparation for Peak Oil for the eventual threats to national sovereignty with respect to our defense services requiring huge amounts of fuel to operate in even the most basic manner? Massively increased illegal immigration, boat people, insurrections, terrorist activity, general anarchy/panic, etc...

They can't do anything because the politicians can't ever admit that it's even real. There's no votes in telling Americans they can't have what they want.

[JohnConnor]

I agree that they believe if they told the truth, they think the average sheep in this country would just s*** themselves and panic would ensue or are they also delusional with a "faith based" energy system?

I ask this question to the forum as I see it as unavoidable, foolish ignoring the fact of hydrocarbon depletion and continuing to literally just burn it up going to Wal-Mart to spend money we borrowed from China and U.A.E. while not preparing in the least, that is our elected political leaders are. So what are the security and defense professionals to plan on while Nero and the rest of in-crowd wait in a safe orbit to see what happens?

My humble opinion:
Probably a dually structured military, one being primarily based in regional defenses not requiring an enormous fossil fuel supply, i.e. traditional forts/batteries relatively lightly armed with National Guard units filling into this role easily and with a larger version of a Special Forces Army to engage in maneuver warfare to guard whatever is left following the first instance of $200 a barrel oil...

Of course, we could just start trying to adapt now so the future wouldn't be so bleak but then we all need to drive Hummers 50 miles one way from a McMansion because that is the way Jesus wants us to live...

[killJOY]

What could the U.S. begin to do in preparation for Peak Oil for the eventual threats to national sovereignty with respect to our defense services requiring huge amounts of fuel to operate in even the most basic manner?

N O T H I N G ! When are people here going to understand: IT. IS. TOO. LATE.

I don't know who's more delusional, the cornucopians who think they can pull 115 million barrels a day out of their ass, or the "aware" who think there's something that can be done to "deal" with peaking.

The peak oil argument is confirmed with each day that passes beyond May 2005.

The peak oil cause is lost, lost, LOST!

The "market" is going to "work."

You aren't going to like it, because the "market" is just a hideous Darwinian mechanism dominated by the principle of Survival of the Richest.

Duck, Bitches!

[pup55]

threats to national sovereignty

Let's talk about these:
-Failure to defend our southern border
-Giving tax subsidies to companies who are sending our manufacturing base overseas
-Allowing H1B cases from "rival nations" to work in sensitive scientific industries
-Subsidizing foreign manufacturers who want to set up operations in the US but telling US-based competitors to stick it.
-Deficit spending nearly 25% over our national budget, and borrowing the remainder from foreigners.
-Debasing our currency by excessive government spending causing our major corporations to be bought out by foreign companies on the cheap (ref: Budweiser)
-Allowing our youth to become squishy and decadent
-Turning 1/4 of our corn crop into the equivalent of 17 days worth of motor fuel.

I can probably think of some others.

[seldom_seen]

It is at that point - that we can - "get the ball rolling" again...only this time a bit wiser. Perhaps.

Perhaps not. After the crash, humans will still be self-glorified-apes. With no new evolutionary advantage.

It's quite possible that the survivors will be selected for small body size, high breeding rates, and ability to subsist on low-grade carbohydrates. Given fisheries and overall protein depletion we're currently selecting intelligence out of the human genome. Einstein is a product of the "good ol' days."

The human of the future would much more resemble the short, squat and mostly nutritionally deprived populations of El Salvador and Mexico. These patterns are seen in nature where the coyote thrives and the larger wolf only hangs on...same with the smaller thriving black bear and the larger endangered grizzly bear.

Given enough generations it is quite possible that humans could completely devolve their self prescribed "intelligence."
The most important thing to remember though is that once we lay waste to our carrying capacity. It's gone. Once it's gone we can't replace it. So let's say there's theoretically 100 million people left on earth after the crash and they have the grandest plans for the greatest global empire ever.

It doesn't matter. Carrying capacity is carrying capacity. If you don't have anything like petroleum to power up the global machine, it never ever happens. Human population will remain small for millenia, and how it always was for 99.9% of human history on earth. Hubbert's pimple on the smooth skin of human history.

[kpeavey]

We can set up a false flag operation to use as an external event which creates national fear to unite the population with a single cause.

We use that event to pass legislation making it easier to prosecute the perpetrators of that event, even if it means restricting the civil liberties of the general population.

Under the guise of seeking justice for the event, we establish a military footprint in an oil rich region.

If the people don't buy the reason for the military action, we'll change the story to "bringing democracy to the people." Yeah, they'll buy that one.

We'll set up a paramilitary force in the military zone which can then be used within our own country to control the people during an emergency.

We'll suppress the people who speak out against the government's actions. We relabel them as insurgents and incarcerate them outside of the country so our laws do not apply.

We'll issue vast executive orders to strip the people of their rights, nullify the constitution, and abolish Congress as needed.

We'll hoard vast amounts of petroleum to ensure our military has the fuel it needs.

We set up a cover story for Peak Oil using global warming as the catch all reason why less energy is better for us when we need to promote conservation.

We'll let in a vast number of illegal aliens so that large amounts of cheap unskilled labor are available to work the fields when the time comes.

We'll hide any major finds on our own soil that we can in order to save it for later, when our national security needs it the most.

We'll build camps to house the population when they start to get out of control.

We start gathering lists of people who pose potential problems in the future.

To best control a population in the future, transportation will need to be limited, so we let Peak Oil run its course without mandating any significant changes in transportation energy efficiency.

Wait, we're already doing all this, never mind.

[MadScientist]

We can set up a false flag operation to use as an external event which creates national fear to unite the population with a single cause.
We use that event to pass legislation making it easier to prosecute the perpetrators of that event, even if it means restricting the civil liberties of the general population.
Under the guise of seeking justice for the event, we establish a military footprint in an oil rich region. ...
To best control a population in the future, transportation will need to be limited, so we let Peak Oil run its course without mandating any significant changes in transportation energy efficiency.
Wait, we're already doing all this, never mind.

and while the Govt is preparing to herd the sheep- become a bear, a beaver, a squirrel, an owl.

[JohnConnor]

Hmmm...The future's not set. There's no fate but what we make for ourselves.

Of course that fate doesn't look so good when you've burned up half of the greatest natural resource ever discovered and some of the bright ideas your culture has produced recently are:

Record Obesity Levels, Interest-Only Mortgages, SUVs, McMansions, the Adkins Diet, and twice electing W to the Presidency...

[kpeavey]

Don't forget the Swiffer.

[shortonoil]

kpeavey said:

We can
We use
we establish
we'll change
We'll set
We'll suppress
We'll issue
We'll hoard
We set
We'll let
We'll hide
We'll build
We start
Wait, we're

Who is this WE business; have you got a mouse in your pocket? There is not going to be any WE. At least not the one We have come to know and love. Oil allowed BIG. Big planes, big trains, big boats, big colleges and universities, big companies and big government. Basically BIG civilization.
When BIG civilization is gone, and it will go, the WE will go with it!

[kpeavey]

In the Original Post,

What could the U.S. begin to do in preparation for Peak Oil...

I simply employed literary license in regards to the US: "We the People..." and used it to show existing preparations by that government.

There is not going to be any WE. At least not the one We have come to know and love. Oil allowed BIG. Big planes, big trains, big boats, big colleges and universities, big companies and big government. Basically BIG civilization. When BIG civilization is gone, and it will go, the WE will go with it!

I could not agree with you more.

[patience]

Unfortunately, what we need from govt, vs what we get are very different. In that vein, I've been trying like many others to figure out what we can realistically expect govt to do in the face of PO and its' attendant problems.

As I said once, if govt was in charge of coping with an epidemic of diarrhea, they would pass out corks. They habitually treat symptoms, not problems. So, if gasoline, or any commodity, is short, they will ration it, AFTER they get all THEY want. If the sheeple are upset because of a bad economy, they will pass out fiat money. If prices are too high, they will attempt to regulate prices, and assure shortages. If anybody gets out of line, they will be stepped on. If there is no ready symptomatic treatment, say for something like climate change, we will get a propaganda campaign. If we can't afford enough oil, they will send the military to get some, and damn the consequences.

I really think it is naive to expect anything constructive out of govt in most countries, particularly the US. Better put our personal efforts into just covering our own needs as we see them. I think the saying is from India, that "When elephants fight, the grass gets trampled".

[JohnConnor]

All true - it's almost funny how life / art mimic and predict one another, I'll reference this game "Front Lines: Fuel of War" www.frontlines.com that basically is the sobering and depressing vision of a probable future, maybe or maybe not, I don't think a single talking head on TV or in government get it just yet but perhaps, I have to have some hope... but in the mean time, I see several possibilities:

Our addiction to oil and reluctance to use it responsibly will force us to figure something out, not supporting the bloated suburban experiment we call America now but something like Europe in different areas capable of long term large scale population support, i.e. we abandon to a large degree the Southwest, Southern Cali, Great Plains and the Rockies...

or behind door number two

A future where we initially fight each other (U.S.-F.S.U-P.R.C) for the last hydrocarbons until our war machines and the huge logistical support networks they require make even that last super valuable hydrocarbon resources not worth it and a peace only by a lack of go-juice comes into effect...

or behind door number three

The least likely, we share what we have left, use it extremely wisely and attack this problem from all sides with everything and either get it together and change into something responsible but pretty much for our entire run as a civilization, we really only band together for making war or protecting ourselves from others planning on war on us, i give this a snowball's chance...

[patience]

JohnConnor,

That's pretty much what Matt Simmons says in the interview here:

Interview with Jim Puplava

Discussed in this thread: Link

A couple times he mentioned a "village economy", that references the 1800"s, and early 1900"s. And he doesn't give us much time to get on the ball and get it done. That period in US history, updated to what much of Europe looks like, is the only workable concept I can see for our future. Other alternatives get ugly fast.

How do we make that happen? I don't think it's possible to overcome all the business and power interests that don't want to hear it. So, CYA time.

[Plantagenet]

The T. Boone Pickens plan would be a good place to start.

[JohnConnor]

The Pickens Plan is the only ray of hope I have, not that is the salvation but it is at least a sign that at least some of the people with money/power/fame are starting to get it - I'm not saying that we are or can pull out of this nose dive but it is at least something - but if only one pol would have the courage to say we have to start increasing Federal Gas Taxes NOW to get momentum towards:

100+ mpg cars/public transit/small houses/small or no commutes/local organic farming/expensive electricity/less air travel/all plastics recycled

This is the societal-economic equivalent of loosing weight, getting fit, quitting smoking, learning a foreign language and starting a new job all at once but the only other alternative is anarchy so let's get moving...

But we have to accept that some of society (suburbs, people, capabiities & opportunities) will be lost probably forever.

My biggest problem with Picken's is that the Plan is too small and he needs to say this is just step 1

Step 2 - Raise constantly (5 cents every six months) Fed Gas Taxes
Step 3 - Stop Federal Funding of new Interstates - only fund maintence
Step 4 - Begin a New Deal sized program to put in High Speed Rail for not only passenger but cargo also, Federally owned and maintened tracks
Step 5 - Tax at 50 cents per square foot every private residential home in the US, apartment/condos (six times more energy efficient) would be tax free
Step 6 - Declare all profits made from Sustainable Sources of Energy Production tax free for the next 20 years
Step 7 - Fund with no limit at least 4 serious alternative energy sources (Fusion/Advanced Fission/High Efficiency Solar/Biofuel from Non-Food Stock)

But the original start of this thread was my concern about National Security Preparation for this coming storm

I see the end of many USAF airframes - at least the majority of our fighters replaced by COIN type aircraft and UAV's with only turboprop transports
The US Army will loose most of it's heavy armor, most attack helicopters and move lightly (Strykers)
The MC and Navy will be littoral with small blue water force with only a few carriers

but this is all dependent on how steep the backside of the curve is...