[barbara23]

Hi guys! Crude oil continued its decline on Monday as investors weighed up demand from China with supply disruptions due to conflict between Russia and Georgia. Chinese crude imports fell 7% to 13.79million tonnes in July. The September futures contract was off 75 cents at $114.45 a barrel in New York.

Cheers!
Barbie

{link removed by Shannymara per CoC 3.1.7}

[dinopello]

Pretty soon, they'll be paying us to burn it !

[Ferretlover]

We should enjoy the lower prices while we can. The next upwards spike is going to be a doozie!

[joeltrout]

I just paid $4.07 a gallon for gas. That is the lowest price I have paid all summer.

In fact I consider that cheap.

joeltrout

[socrates1fan]

I haven't posted for awhile now.
This truely isn't something to get excited about.
This is a bubble and I'm enjoying it while I can.
I am curious what has cuased this bubble.

[Serial_Worrier]

Time to think about buying a Suburban!

I need a zombie-horde smasher.

[socrates1fan]

I just paid $4.07 a gallon for gas. That is the lowest price I have paid all summer.

In fact I consider that cheap.

joeltrout

It is like less than 3.80 here. 0_o

[Armageddon]

Then

( _0_ )


Now

( _o_ )

[smallpoxgirl]

It's sitting right now on the 200 day moving average. It should be clear in the next couple of days if that's going to hold support. It looks to me like it will probably not hold. This thing is still making solid moves on heavy volume. If it breaks the 200dma, then the next significant support is probably 100.

[threadbear]

Everyone has to just sit back, breathe, and reflect on this little conversation. We're talking about 114. a barrel as if it's cheap. That's just plain funny.

[3aidlillahi]

It's sitting right now on the 200 day moving average. It should be clear in the next couple of days if that's going to hold support. It looks to me like it will probably not hold. This thing is still making solid moves on heavy volume. If it breaks the 200dma, then the next significant support is probably 100.

I'm not into trading, so I don't really understand.

200 day:

Link

We're above the average by a couple of bucks.

100 day:

Link

We're already beneath it. So what do you mean by "breaking" the 200 day ma and then moving onto the 100 day? You mean going back up or down?

[smallpoxgirl]

We're above the average by a couple of bucks.

There are minor differences depending on what you're graphing. I'm looking at the front month contract(currently September) because that's what I have available. WTIC is an index...it's a composite made of numerous different contracts strung together, so the moving average is slightly different. For the September contract, the 200 dma is at $112.84 and oil is currently at $113.26.

We're already beneath it. So what do you mean by "breaking" the 200 day ma and then moving onto the 100 day?

I mean breaking the 200dma (i.e. dropping below it) and then moving on to $100/barrel. Round numbers tend to be a support level for psychological reasons. $100/barrel was also a very significant resistance level on the way up which argues for it being support on the way down.

[mos6507]

We should enjoy the lower prices while we can. The next upwards spike is going to be a doozie!

This winter?

[3aidlillahi]

I mean breaking the 200dma (i.e. dropping below it) and then moving on to $100/barrel. Round numbers tend to be a support level for psychological reasons. $100/barrel was also a very significant resistance level on the way up which argues for it being support on the way down.

Oh. I thought you were talking about the same units when going from 200dma to 100 (blank). I assumed that was the 100 dma and not $100/bbl.

[Niagara]

Just something else to keep in mind. China has been on hold lately for the Olympics. After that, they will ramp up their energy demand again.

The average American uses 20 barrels of oil per person per year.
The average Chinese uses 2.

They are catching up quickly. And there's a billion of 'em.

[BigTex]

A point that Deffeyes makes is that one of the consequences of nearing peak oil will be extreme price volatility.

I think a lot of us think that volatility means high prices, but we're finding that it also means unpredictable prices.

This price action isn't normal. Remember, too, that there weren't any significant political or weather events in the background of this recent runup (other than the Iran background noise that has been there for several years).

I would LOVE to see an oil chart from three years in the future. I can't imagine what kinds of ups and downs there will be between now and then.

[nobodypanic]

By Tom Doggett
Tue Aug 12, 2:51 PM ET



WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. oil demand during the first half of 2008 fell by an average 800,000 barrels per day (bpd) compared with the same period a year ago, the biggest volume decline in 26 years, the Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday.

link

[gampy]

A point that Deffeyes makes is that one of the consequences of nearing peak oil will be extreme price volatility.

I think a lot of us think that volatility means high prices, but we're finding that it also means unpredictable prices.

This price action isn't normal. Remember, too, that there weren't any significant political or weather events in the background of this recent runup (other than the Iran background noise that has been there for several years).

I would LOVE to see an oil chart from three years in the future. I can't imagine what kinds of ups and downs there will be between now and then.

I would agree with that.

It's not as if the price has gone to $50 a barrel. I am of the opinion that we have reached peak, and are now on the undulating plateau. Demand destruction will factor into the price, as well as geopolitics, refining capacity, the introduction of large conservation initiatives, et al. Many factors will drive the price, up or down. All of them pulling in different directions.

I have a feeling that we will see a mixture of powerdown, and moving to alternative energy. While still utilizing the remaining oil.

Not cornucopian, but not TEOTWAWKI, either. Somewhere in between.

[MrBill]

I sense a real double standard. If the housing market or the stock market go down by +20% then it is considered a bear market. But when commodities or crude dip by +20% it is considered a mere breather on the way to ever higher prices. So the person that predicts $200 a barrel when we hit $147 isn't wrong, but just has to be patient. But if they predicted the S&P 500 to hit 1600 when it was 1559 then they are obviously completely clueless as it is now under 1300. Even though had an investor bought crude futures at $147 with the normal 10% down on the margin by now they would have lost 220% of their capital. It tells me that not many actually are long crude futures in expectation of higher prices, but are instead playing armchair quarterbacks from the sidelines. We may very well hit $150 now after this pullback, but the $64.000 question is will we hit $100 or $80 first?

[3aidlillahi]

We may very well hit $150 now after this pullback, but the $64.000 question is will we hit $100 or $80 first?

I'm guessing if anything, we'll hit $100 first, rather than $80, if we ever go that low. Can I exchange my $64 grand for euros now?