How long before the grid goes down?

by **JustaGirl** » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 02:23:49

I like polls so I figured I'd start one myself. Hopefully this one hasn't been done recently.

I think we still have another 10 years at least. I'm feeling optimistic today :-D

by **TheDude** » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 02:36:48

It is out in Louisiana, for one.

Entergy’s View Outages system

by **Consensi** » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 05:31:18

JustaGirl wrote:I think we still have another 10 years at least. I'm feeling optimistic today

The Russians are already threatening Europe with oil and gas reductions. We are at war in Iraq and Afghanistan for oil. The Russians are determined to dominate Georgia and the Caspian oil supply. If the US and Russia start shooting at each other in the Black Sea things could develop very quickly. Iran/Israel is another matter. The hundredth monkey says rationing will soon be a reality. IMO, we will see worldwide energy rationing in two years.

A permanent collapse of the national grid is difficult to predict as there are too many variables. All things considered, I would guess 7 to 10 years - depending on who wins the oil wars.

by **VMarcHart** » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 08:35:26

The electric output is mostly powered by nuclear and coal. We might hit a bump with NG, which will mostly cause brownouts at peaking time. The electric infrastructure is indirectly dependent on oil, especially O&M. Total collapse is not in my crystal ball, which has been wrong before.

by **DomusAlbion** » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 09:50:49

It depends on locale. The Pacific NW of the US and western Canada should be fine. The North East is questionable.

Outside of America? They have electricity? :roll:

by **NeoPeasant** » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 10:12:32

We will adapt to increasingly unreliable power, which means among other things not making large investments in refrigerated foods, and relearning passive techniques to stay cool on hot days.

by **vilemerchant** » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 10:29:43

DomusAlbion wrote:Outside of America? They have electricity?

Yep, more reliable electricity. And a lot live in actual free countries.

by **DomusAlbion** » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 10:37:56

vilemerchant wrote:
DomusAlbion wrote:Outside of America? They have electricity?
Yep, more reliable electricity. And a lot live in actual free countries.

Wow! I are smart but I did not know that.

Thanks Vile, you must be looking forward to spring down under.

by **Consensi** » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 10:42:49

VMarcHart wrote:The electric output is mostly powered by nuclear and coal. We might hit a bump with NG, which will mostly cause brownouts at peaking time. The electric infrastructure is indirectly dependent on oil, especially O&M.

Good point. O&M costs would definitely skyrocket as oil supply decreases and prices increase.

On a curious note, what caused the rolling brownouts in California that led to the recall of the Governor ?

by **Cashmere** » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 10:50:05

I love it that, as of right now, 1/3 of people have voted for, "we'll always find a way to keep the lights on."

That's great.

Even among the intelligentsia there is a 33% denial rate.

by **PonyBoy78** » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 10:57:00

I tend to think that we'll do whatever is necessary to keep the grid up, but that it won't work in the long term.

I'll take a shot in the dark here (pardon the pun)..
> Troubles begin: within 10 years
> Grid pretty much down more than 75% of the time: within 20 years

by **dunewalker** » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 10:57:49

Consensi wrote:On a curious note, what caused the rolling brownouts in California that led to the recall of the Governor ?

Well, it wasn't a lack of generating capacity. Here we are 8 years later, very little increased capacity, and California still uses about the same amount of electricity as it did in 2000. Wikipedia pretty well sums up the causes of those blackouts/brownouts: California's famous blackouts

by **JustaGirl** » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 11:12:26

DomusAlbion wrote:It depends on locale. The Pacific NW of the US and western Canada should be fine. The North East is questionable. Outside of America? They have electricity?

I know i'm being an ignorant American

by **DomusAlbion** » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 11:16:19

JustaGirl wrote:I know i'm being an ignorant American

Hey, I wasn't poking fun at you. Just being a little silly this morning.

by **JustaGirl** » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 11:16:31

TheDude wrote:It is out in Louisiana, for one: Entergy’s View Outages system

Due to the hurricane? I suppose enough hurricanes could damage things there enough to keep power out for good.

by **Dreamtwister** » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 12:32:31

Like many things, it totally depends on location.

Some parts of the country are already on the razor's edge, where 1 hot day could shut down an entire region, while other parts will have power decades after the main grid goes down.

by **Tyler_JC** » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 13:31:03

GW graph (large)

We are going to see increases in prices and major decreases in consumption well before any kind of "permanent blackout".

California has air conditioners, computers, iPhones, light bulbs, refrigerators, and much of the country's highly electric-dependent computer/tech industry. Moreover, California's population is a low estimate because of all of the illegal immigrants. They use lots of electricity (albeit, less than their native born peers) but aren't counted in the population surveys.

Comparing the United States to Great Britain (cold, cloudy, heavily developed), we use more than twice as much electricity per capita.

We have a lot of conservation options available to us before we have to start eating dinner by candle light in a freezing apartment.

by **vtsnowedin** » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 14:01:12

EIA numbers show 50% of our electricity coming from coal. another 20% from Natural gas and 25 % from nuclear and hydro.combined. Just 3% from oil. The grid needs work and updating but its going out completely is remote. If it dose go down it will be due to government stupidity.

Better buy some pv panels.

by **wisconsin_cur** » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 14:09:37

Maybe we should Ast the Magic 8 Ball?

How about, "in my lifetime"? That is about as specific as I would want to get... oh and I am in my mid-30's.

by **burtonridr** » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 16:57:11

JustaGirl wrote:
TheDude wrote:It is out in Louisiana, for one: Entergy’s View Outages system

Due to the hurricane? I suppose enough hurricanes could damage things there enough to keep power out for good.

Or for that matter ice storms in the northeast.

Or downed lines from broken trees anywhere.

Or highwind storms causing a power station to spark a grass fire that burns 5+ houses to the ground and kills 1 within hours :cry:

I'm pretty sure natural disasters will be the biggest culprit. Without sufficient parts or transportation it will be difficult to maintain such a high maintenance power system.