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RIP: Lehmans Holdings Inc

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Fear is back on the menu boyz and girlz - LEHMAN BROTHERS

Unread postby roccman » Wed 04 Jun 2008, 00:07:06

A run on these bad boyz would bring the house down...

Link

All rumor ...of course :)
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
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Re: Fear is back on the menu boyz and girlz - LEHMAN BROTHER

Unread postby seldom_seen » Wed 04 Jun 2008, 00:13:05

All we need now is a government official to be taken out for "having sex with prostitutes." OMG!

Then maybe the deal will go down this weekend where Goldman Sachs buys Lehman for .05 cents a share on Sunday afternoon and the Fed backs up 80 billion dollars of their debt.

I love the free market.
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Re: Fear is back on the menu boyz and girlz - LEHMAN BROTHER

Unread postby roccman » Wed 04 Jun 2008, 00:16:50

seldom_seen wrote:All we need now is a government official to be taken out for "having sex with prostitutes." OMG!
Then maybe the deal will go down this weekend where Goldman Sachs buys Lehman for .05 cents a share on Sunday afternoon and the Fed backs up 80 billion dollars of their debt.
I love the free market.

I don't think the fed has the sheet to back LEH.

Congress will sure as hell NOT authorize another JPM/BSC bailout in an election year.
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
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Re: Fear is back on the menu boyz and girlz - LEHMAN BROTHER

Unread postby Dreamtwister » Wed 04 Jun 2008, 00:24:39

You know, when Bear Stearns went belly-up back in March, I asked on my blog "Who's next?" My top 3 picks were Lehman Brothers, Washington Mutual and MF Global.

With my track record lately, half of me wants to unwind some of my PM position to cash in on these failures. The other half of me wants to run out and take physical posession while I can.

Decisions, decisions...
The whole of human history is a refutation by experiment of the concept of "moral world order". - Friedrich Nietzsche
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Re: Fear is back on the menu boyz and girlz - LEHMAN BROTHER

Unread postby Iaato » Wed 04 Jun 2008, 01:49:05

roccman wrote:I don't think the fed has the sheet to back LEH.
Congress will sure as hell NOT authorize another JPM/BSC bailout in an election year.

I'll take you up on that one, Rocc. I think they can and will continue to authorize M&A bailouts with JPM the bagholder. Betcha?
“Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value ---- zero.” --Voltaire
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Re: Fear is back on the menu boyz and girlz - LEHMAN BROTHER

Unread postby roccman » Wed 04 Jun 2008, 01:51:17

Iaato wrote:
roccman wrote:I don't think the fed has the sheet to back LEH.
Congress will sure as hell NOT authorize another JPM/BSC bailout in an election year.

I'll take you up on that one, Rocc. I think they can and will continue to authorize M&A bailouts with JPM the bagholder. Betcha?


You're on...

Keep in mind the JPM/BSC deal is currently wavering...

So how much (in silver) did you want to give me?
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
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Re: Fear is back on the menu boyz and girlz - LEHMAN BROTHER

Unread postby Iaato » Wed 04 Jun 2008, 02:35:16

Iaato wrote:I'll take you up on that one, Rocc. I think they can and will continue to authorize M&A bailouts with JPM the bagholder. Betcha?

Rocc wrote:You're on...
Keep in mind the JPM/BSC deal is currently wavering...
So how much (in silver) did you want to give me?

How about one silver eagle? Or a pre-1964 50 cent piece or dollar? I think I've got any one of those, if you do. We'll have to define bailout, though. The way Ben keeps coming up with new, creative financing terms, a bailout might end up looking like nothing we've ever seen before . . . . At least one bailout, to merge with JPM again. It doesn't have to go through (too many variables there with too long of a timeline), it just has to be bailed out in the short term. These jokers will do anything to keep the derivative chain from cascading.
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Re: Fear is back on the menu boyz and girlz - LEHMAN BROTHER

Unread postby Peleg » Wed 04 Jun 2008, 02:46:24

The house of cards falls; aces and eights, kings and queens and fools.
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So Lehman next?

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Wed 04 Jun 2008, 04:04:31

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7434776.stm

It begins to like Bear Stern bis. :-D
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Re: Fear is back on the menu boyz and girlz - LEHMAN BROTHER

Unread postby municipal » Wed 04 Jun 2008, 09:07:32

Iaato wrote:
roccman wrote:I don't think the fed has the sheet to back LEH.
Congress will sure as hell NOT authorize another JPM/BSC bailout in an election year.

I'll take you up on that one, Rocc. I think they can and will continue to authorize M&A bailouts with JPM the bagholder. Betcha?

Over 1.5 trillion has been given fre since november, to the banks. It is easy to print.
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Re: Fear is back on the menu boyz and girlz - LEHMAN BROTHER

Unread postby hope_full » Wed 04 Jun 2008, 09:25:51

over 1.5 trillion has been given fre since november, to the banks. It is easy to print.

I'm a neophyte here, so please be kind and patient with me.

Are you saying that the federal government has printed $1.5 trillion since November? Doesn't printing money lead to hyper-inflation (such as Germany, post WWI)? And how do you know that they've printed $1.5 trillion?

And lastly, isn't that an efficient way to bring down a government - to ruin their economy through introducing massive amounts of printed currency into their economy?

HF
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Re: Fear is back on the menu boyz and girlz - LEHMAN BROTHER

Unread postby pup55 » Wed 04 Jun 2008, 09:38:52

Are you saying that the federal government has printed $1.5 trillion since November? Doesn't printing money lead to hyper-inflation (such as Germany, post WWI)? And how do you know that they've printed $1.5 trillion?
And lastly, isn't that an efficient way to bring down a government - to ruin their economy through introducing massive amounts of printed currency into their economy?

You are hereby promoted from "tenderfoot" to "one step higher than tenderfoot" whatever that is.

They didn't really print the $1.5T, they just sort of "wished it into existence" and gave it to JP Morgan to keep the Bear Stearns deal and many others from blowing up.

And, yes, it is a pretty good way to screw up a government. However, Bernanke, who apparently is a scholar and expert on the first Great Depression does not want to repeat the so-called mistakes of the past. He thinks he is helping us out, by getting the system to limp along for a few months more.

What he doesn't know is that he is creating a whole new set of mistakes. Scholars years from now will look back on this time and just laugh at what kind of an idiot this guy was.

Perhaps one of these scholars will be named Chairman of the Fed, if such an institution still exists in a generation, and make a whole new set of mistakes.
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Re: Fear is back on the menu boyz and girlz - LEHMAN BROTHER

Unread postby seahorse » Wed 04 Jun 2008, 09:48:00

Pup,
In the words of Darth Vader "I find your lack of faith disturbing."

Yes, soon, North American may become synonymous with South America for a myriad of reasons, least of which will not be graft, corruption, run away inflation (prices, however one wants to define it).
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Re: Fear is back on the menu boyz and girlz - LEHMAN BROTHER

Unread postby roccman » Wed 04 Jun 2008, 10:09:37

Iaato wrote: At least one bailout, to merge with JPM again. It doesn't have to go through (too many variables there with too long of a timeline), it just has to be bailed out in the short term. These jokers will do anything to keep the derivative chain from cascading.

I am in for a 1921 Morgan with these terms.

Ok?
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
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Re: Fear is back on the menu boyz and girlz - LEHMAN BROTHER

Unread postby Denny » Wed 04 Jun 2008, 10:13:25

The ultimate irony is that Helicopter Ben announced just yesterday that the Fed wil be pursuing a much stronger U.S. dollar.
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Re: Fear is back on the menu boyz and girlz - LEHMAN BROTHER

Unread postby catbox » Wed 04 Jun 2008, 10:55:41

Punk is not really a style of music. It was more like a state of mind.
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Re: Fear is back on the menu boyz and girlz - LEHMAN BROTHER

Unread postby roccman » Wed 04 Jun 2008, 10:57:15

catbox wrote:From Bloomberg this morning:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home

Roccman in the five ring again.
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
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Re: Fear is back on the menu boyz and girlz - LEHMAN BROTHER

Unread postby canis_lupus » Wed 04 Jun 2008, 11:49:30

Help a brother out here rocc -
1. Lehman has a run on it
2. the Fed can't / won't bail it out.
3. it goes under and is folded into a stronger bank for pennies on the dollar
4. investors lose their capital. depositors lose their deposits over the FDIC - guaranteed amount...?
5. ?
I guess I don't know enough about how a major bank failure affects the economy. Is it confidence or hard dollars?

Can somebody give me a two sentence "set me in the right direction" answer?
Much obliged,
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Re: Fear is back on the menu boyz and girlz - LEHMAN BROTHER

Unread postby roccman » Wed 04 Jun 2008, 12:10:11

canis_lupus wrote:Help a brother out here rocc -
1. Lehman has a run on it
2. the Fed can't / won't bail it out.
3. it goes under and is folded into a stronger bank for pennies on the dollar
4. investors lose their capital. depositors lose their deposits over the FDIC - guaranteed amount...?
5. ?
I guess I don't know enough about how a major bank failure affects the economy. Is it confidence or hard dollars?
Can somebody give me a two sentence "set me in the right direction" answer?
Much obliged,
Lupus

I'll give it to you in one sentence. The collapse of the US and subsequent global economy.
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
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Re: Fear is back on the menu boyz and girlz - LEHMAN BROTHER

Unread postby Iaato » Wed 04 Jun 2008, 13:53:35

canis_lupus wrote:1. Lehman has a run on it
2. the Fed can't / won't bail it out.
3. it goes under and is folded into a stronger bank for pennies on the dollar
4. investors lose their capital. depositors lose their deposits over the FDIC - guaranteed amount...?
5. ?


If LEH goes bankrupt, all of their worthless derivatives have to be marked to market. Which would be fine, except that then that causes a chain reaction where the other $600T in derivatives worldwide would have a market price, which is probably $0 or close to it. As Rocc says, #5 then becomes global economic collapse because that $600T is many times the value of all the other financial assets/world GDP/etc.

Rocc, I don't own any antiques, so I can't match the Morgan. PM me, we'll figure something out. It's a good bet.
“Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value ---- zero.” --Voltaire
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