by DantesPeak » Wed 17 Sep 2008, 20:14:24
Ok, this is not easy to explain.
The Fed & Treasury developed a plan after the credit crisis started in July 2007. Basically in the event that the demand for highly liquid securities like Treasury bills greatly exceeded demand, the Treasury was to launch an emergency issue of new Treasury bills.
When interest rates on one month Treasury bills fell to 0% (zero) this morning, the plan was activated. The Treasury rather quickly sold $40 billion in new one month Treasury bills.
If the Treasury has excess funds, it usually deposits them with the Fed, as was the case today with eth $40 billion it received from the bill sale.
To lend money for its various schemes, the Fed could choose to sell its existing assets or just basically print up new money. Mostly over the last year, it has sold Treasury bills it owns and lent money to banks/brokers/mortgagers/insurers – but also printed up new money. The Fed statement Thursday night will tell us whether the new Treasury money was lent out somewhere.
Anyway, the Treasury & Fed at this point are just trying to prevent interest rates on US treasuries going negative. Perhaps needless to say, negative interest rates for the dollar would not be attractive to foreigners. Gold would seem more appealing. Gold could even go up $80 in one day as money leaves dollars.
So the answer as to whether this is inflationary or deflationary depends on what the Fed does with the money and whether it affects the value of the dollar.
Most likely, this is just one more step in the debasement of the dollar - that is replacing the backing for the dollar with private debts and assets instead of US treasury bills.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.