[gandolf]

With the worlds financial markets due to collapse completley within the next few weeks, it is likley that those that survive will end up living in small self contained villages.

The up side is that this may defer peak oil for hundreds of years.

Maybe when we do rediscover the ability to extract oil again we will also have learned to use it carefully!!!!!!!!

[mark]

Same effect... but highly unlikely.

[gollum]

The Chinese, Indains and Russians will most likley take up any slack in the next couple of years. This collapse, in my opinion is partially a result of high energy prices for an extended time. Commonly known as demand destruction.

[mos6507]

Maybe when we do rediscover the ability to extract oil again we will also have learned to use it carefully!!!!!!!!

Tell that to the atmosphere.

[TheDude]

I don't follow. OPEC has acknowledged that ca. $80/bbl is a floor for some of the massive heavy oil projects they're working on, which will push the date of peak back a bit, or sustain the plateau we're on; but if a drawn out recession curbs demand enough to bring the price below that floor those projects will be shelved, hastening peak in the first place!

This is true of so many expensive unconventional projects, your tar sands or deepwater pre-salt offshore Brazil fields. They are fantastically expensive and need a firm price floor to justify investment. Oh, and credit is tightening, which puts minor producers in jeopardy as well.

I'm no longer assured by the Lighter Side of Recession theory some have concerning peak oil. Another factor is that the early 80s decline in US consumption was not only brought on by more fuel-efficient cars, but also by purging the country of quite a bit of petroleum powered electrical generation - checked out the figure recently, it was something like 3 mb/d. That's a helluva lot of fat to trim, and we're one lean steak anymore as regards flexibility of demand.

[threadbear]

The Chinese, Indains and Russians will most likley take up any slack in the next couple of years. This collapse, in my opinion is partially a result of high energy prices for an extended time. Commonly known as demand destruction.

Highly doubtful. The downturn is global.

[threadbear]

I don't follow. OPEC has acknowledged that ca. $80/bbl is a floor for some of the massive heavy oil projects they're working on, which will push the date of peak back a bit, or sustain the plateau we're on; but if a drawn out recession curbs demand enough to bring the price below that floor those projects will be shelved, hastening peak in the first place!
.

And that is at the present dollar value. Fiat currency, internationally is going to devalue against what? Each other? The only thing they can be measured against are commodities, the bottom line evaluator. This means we're going to enter another commodies bull market, regardless of consumption. Fiat will lose value in a steeper curve than demand destruction.

[cualcrees]

The Chinese, Indains and Russians will most likley take up any slack in the next couple of years. This collapse, in my opinion is partially a result of high energy prices for an extended time. Commonly known as demand destruction.

Highly doubtful. The downturn is global.

So, it´s kind of a catch 22 situation, right? If we keep using it the way we've been using it, will run out sooner rather than later and destroy the planet in the process; but, when and if we stop using it, it's because the world's economy is toast.

[threadbear]

The Chinese, Indains and Russians will most likley take up any slack in the next couple of years. This collapse, in my opinion is partially a result of high energy prices for an extended time. Commonly known as demand destruction.

Highly doubtful. The downturn is global.

So, it´s kind of a catch 22 situation, right? If we keep using it the way we've been using it, will run out sooner rather than later and destroy the planet in the process; but, when and if we stop using it, it's because the world's economy is toast.

The economy is obscuring much of the fundamental problem, but it pretty much boils down to that. An inflationary scenario buys time and will encourage domestic development of alternatives, but then we have peak everything else and climate destruction of commodities to deal with as we try to haul ourselves out of the abyss. The total world population, and destruction of the value of most currencies, puts a very high floor on price, even if demand destruction holds the ceiling a bit lower.