[DarkDawg]

On CNBC last night Maria Bartiromo did a little introduction to Peak Oil. Saw it while flipping channels during halftime.

Palin, Simmons, Pickens, etc..

A fair attempt at approaching the subject, but it needs to be on primetime and on the major networks.

[joeltrout]

Good show however the discussion about peak oil was somewhat brief. But much better than all other networks.

CNBC routinely has peak oil "experts" on the show when oil prices are high.

However I think that will cease since oil prices are falling like a rock.

joeltrout

[ROCKMAN]

Falling Joel? I guess it depends on your perspective. On 30 Sept Nymex was $80/bbl. Today it's a little over $100/bbl. That looks like a 25% increase y-o-y to me. I don't play the futures market. And if you remember, I'm a petroleum geologist. From my view point, I'm very pleased with the current trend. And since I never try to project future crude prices I'm left with just where we are today: great for the oil patch...not so much for everyone else.

[joeltrout]

Falling Joel? I guess it depends on your perspective. On 30 Sept Nymex was $80/bbl. Today it's a little over $100/bbl. That looks like a 25% increase y-o-y to me. I don't play the futures market. And if you remember, I'm a petroleum geologist. From my view point, I'm very pleased with the current trend. And since I never try to project future crude prices I'm left with just where we are today: great for the oil patch...not so much for everyone else.

I agree from an oil industry point of view. However the major players on Wall Street view oil prices as "collapsing" and will continue to pull money out of oil until they feel they can make some type of return. They will probably over-shoot it on the downside but it really doesn't matter if the price is $100 or $80. It is still higher historically.

joeltrout

[ROCKMAN]

I get your point Joel. But that's what's so nuts: they're discounting NG heavy companies just like oil heavy companies. And almost everyone will have significantly better earning y-o-y come next 31 Dec. I understand the mental state of the market you described but it seems to be so pessimisticly off the market it's difficult to justify.

[joeltrout]

I get your point Joel. But that's what's so nuts: they're discounting NG heavy companies just like oil heavy companies. And almost everyone will have significantly better earning y-o-y come next 31 Dec. I understand the mental state of the market you described but it seems to be so pessimisticly off the market it's difficult to justify.

Do you think NG companies have drilled themselves into over-supply? It seems if we don't have a really cold winter then prices could go down much further for NG.

joeltrout

[ROCKMAN]

I don't think so Joel especially in the long term. There may be a few occasional soft spots due to local excesses but I see the decline rates of those new UNG wells on a daily basis. If we really do have a bubble of gas at the moment it will disappear quickly. And I never bet on a cold winter....if it happens then it's just a bonus.

But we might have a little more gas to market in the next 12 months. Some of our new UNG are really coming on very strong. But, again, in 12 months they'll be down 30% to 60%. And, if for whatever reason (capital/credit problems) there is a sudden decline in UNG drilling I think we'll see a fall off a NG production rate cliff that will take your breath away