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Markets and the Dead Cat Bounce

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Dow closes down -777.68 Is this the largest 1-day drop?

Unread postby messageinabottle » Mon 29 Sep 2008, 16:05:41

Dow closes down -738.08 Is this the largest 1-day drop?

Anyone know?

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Re: Dow closes down -738.08 Is this the largest 1-day drop?

Unread postby IgnoranceIsBliss » Mon 29 Sep 2008, 16:12:12

Down 748 according to CNBC right now. Biggest drop since 1987.
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Re: Dow closes down -738.08 Is this the largest 1-day drop?

Unread postby messageinabottle » Mon 29 Sep 2008, 16:14:36

IgnoranceIsBliss wrote:Down 748 according to CNBC right now. Biggest drop since 1987.


Down 770.59 right now..

I thought markets closed over 15 minutes ago? Why is it STILL DROPPING????
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Re: Dow closes down -738.08 Is this the largest 1-day drop?

Unread postby HEADER_RACK » Mon 29 Sep 2008, 16:14:58

Yahoo has -770 right now
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777

Unread postby messageinabottle » Mon 29 Sep 2008, 16:22:30

Green is the new Black, 40 is the new 30, and 777 is the new 9/11

This number is rigged?? Where is Golem?


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Re: Dow closes down -777.68 Is this the largest 1-day drop?

Unread postby dunewalker » Mon 29 Sep 2008, 16:26:10

down 777.68 at 4:14pm Wall Street Time
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Re: Dow closes down -777.68 Is this the largest 1-day drop?

Unread postby gnm » Mon 29 Sep 2008, 17:03:23

Yup biggest one day drop...

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Re: Dow closes down -738.08 Is this the largest 1-day drop?

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Mon 29 Sep 2008, 17:27:43

messageinabottle wrote:
IgnoranceIsBliss wrote:Down 748 according to CNBC right now. Biggest drop since 1987.


Down 770.59 right now..

I thought markets closed over 15 minutes ago? Why is it STILL DROPPING????


After-hours trading. Look for the futes to be wildly up or down tomorrow morning. My vote is for down, down, down.
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Re: Dow closes down -777.68 Is this the largest 1-day drop?

Unread postby dukey » Mon 29 Sep 2008, 17:59:44

pension funds sucked dry
americans sleep
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Re: Dow closes down -777.68 Is this the largest 1-day drop?

Unread postby jboogy » Mon 29 Sep 2008, 18:03:34

I've heard the quarterly earnings reports are going to be crap. If there isn't talk of a "new-n-improved" bail-out bill tonight it could be bloody tomorrow. Can they shut off peoples credit cards?
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Re: Dow closes down -777.68 Is this the largest 1-day drop?

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Mon 29 Sep 2008, 18:42:41

Rosh Hashanah holiday - nothing doing on this bill until Thursday, at the earliest.
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Stocks will go up today.

Unread postby jasonraymondson » Tue 30 Sep 2008, 08:41:38

I predict we will see the stocks recover 300 today, and if the talks don't look like they will have a solution by thursday afternoon we will see a 500 - 600 point drop.
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Re: Stocks will got up today.

Unread postby Madpaddy » Tue 30 Sep 2008, 08:52:32

Unless congress take another holiday tomorrow. After all Oct 1 1971 was when Walt Disney Worlld opened in orlando. Now there is a date that should be celebrated in the USA.
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Re: Stocks will got up today.

Unread postby Gebari » Tue 30 Sep 2008, 09:24:13

I would expect some rise today due to profit taking after yesterday's bloodbath, but I expect more declines tomorrow. Then it depends on what happens to this bailout.
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Re: Stocks will got up today.

Unread postby Ferretlover » Tue 30 Sep 2008, 09:58:58

It opened up-I suspect that is a combination of factors such as bargain-basement shopping, and that the bailout pkg was NOT passed.
Yesterday, the more people talked about the bill being passed, the faster the markets declined.
I also think it is fair to assume that the ups-and-downs in the numbers will continue to make wide swings for quite a while.
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Markets and the Dead Cat Bounce

Unread postby deMolay » Tue 30 Sep 2008, 10:03:19

It will be a rough week. The TED Spread has risen to 3.5. Libor Rises Most on Record After U.S. Congress Rejects Bailout

By Gavin Finch

Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) -- The cost of borrowing in dollars overnight rose the most on record after the U.S. Congress rejected a $700 billion bank-rescue plan, putting an unprecedented squeeze on the global financial system.

The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, that banks charge each other for such loans climbed 431 basis points to an all-time high of 6.88 percent today, the British Bankers' Association said. The euro interbank offered rate, or Euribor, for one-month loans jumped to a record 5.05 percent, the European Banking Federation said. The Libor-OIS spread, a gauge of the scarcity of cash, also increased to an all-time high.

``This is unheard of, the money markets should be the engine driving the financial system but they have broken down,'' said Kornelius Purps, a fixed-income strategist in Munich for UniCredit Markets and Investment Banking, a unit of Italy's largest lender. ``Any institution that hasn't completed its 2008 funding needs by now is going to be in very serious trouble. More banks are going to need to be bailed out.''

The seizure in the credit markets is tipping lenders toward insolvency, forcing U.S. and European governments to rescue five banks in the past two days, including Dexia SA, the world's biggest provider of loans to local governments, and Wachovia Corp. Money-market rates climbed even after the Federal Reserve yesterday more than doubled the size of its dollar-swap line with foreign central banks to $620 billion. In Europe, banks borrowed dollars from the ECB at almost six times the Fed's benchmark interest rate today.

Commercial Paper

Libor, set by 16 banks including Citigroup Inc. and UBS AG in a daily survey by the BBA, is used to calculate rates on $360 trillion of financial products worldwide, from credit derivatives to home loans and company bonds.

As money-market rates rise, banks charge higher interest on loans to companies and consumers. U.S. securities firms and lenders alone have a record $871 billion of bonds maturing through 2009, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Yields on overnight U.S. commercial paper jumped 171 basis points today to an eight-month high of 3.95 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Average rates on paper backed by assets such as credit cards and auto loans rose 229 basis points to 6.5 percent, the highest since 2001. Companies sell commercial paper to help pay for day-to-day expenses such as salaries and rent.

Funding constraints are being exacerbated as financial companies try to settle trades and buttress balance sheets over the quarter-end, balking at lending for more than a day.

ECB Injection

The Frankfurt-based ECB said it lent banks $30 billion for one day at a marginal rate of 11 percent, 900 basis points above the Fed's key rate of 2 percent. The ECB said it received bids for $77.3 billion. The Bank of Japan injected more than 19 trillion yen ($182 billion) into the country's system over the past two weeks, the most in at least six years. The Reserve Bank of Australia pumped in A$1.95 billion ($1.6 billion) today.

In the year before the turmoil in money markets began in July 2007, the Libor-OIS spread, the difference between the three-month dollar rate and the overnight indexed swap rate, never exceeded 15 basis points. It was a record 250 basis points today.

``The money markets have completely broken down, with no trading taking place at all,'' said Christoph Rieger, a fixed- income strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort in Frankfurt. ``There is no market any more. Central banks are the only providers of cash to the market, no-one else is lending.''

Asian Rates

Borrowing rates rose in Asia earlier today. The three-month interbank offered dollar rate in Singapore jumped to an eight- month high of 3.90 percent. The three-month rate in Hong Kong rose by the most in almost a week to 3.664 percent. The difference between the rate Australian banks charge each other for three-month loans and the overnight indexed swap rate reached 98 points, close to a six-month high.

Financial institutions have posted almost $590 billion of writedowns and losses tied to U.S. subprime mortgages since the start of last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Dexia got a 6.4 billion-euro ($9.2 billion) state-backed rescue, Belgian Prime Minister Yves Leterme said today. Yesterday, the U.K. Treasury seized Bradford & Bingley Plc, Britain's biggest lender to landlords, while governments in Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg extended a lifeline to Fortis, Belgium's largest financial-services firm. Elsewhere, Hypo Real Estate Holding AG received a loan guarantee from Germany, and Iceland agreed to rescue Glitnir Bank hf.

`New Extreme'

``Counterparty fear in the banking sector is at a new extreme,'' said Greg Gibbs, director of currency strategy at ABN Amro Holding Bank NV in Sydney. ``Credit conditions are as tight as a drum. Unless this settles down, central banks would need to cut rates globally to bring funding costs down.''

Congress's rejection of the U.S. government's bank-rescue plan yesterday prompted traders to fully price in a cut in the Fed's target rate of at least a quarter point next month, futures on the Chicago Board of Trade showed. The odds were zero percent a month ago.

The difference between what banks and the U.S. Treasury pay to borrow money for three months, the so-called TED spread, was at 352 basis points today after breaching 350 basis points for the first time yesterday. The spread was at 110 basis points a month ago.

``We can be sure that funding pressures are not going to ease while there is so much uncertainty,'' said Adam Carr, senior economist in Sydney at ICAP Australia Ltd., part of the world's largest inter-bank broker. ``Cash is going to be at a premium. There's really no end in sight.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Gavin Finch in London at [email protected]

Last Updated: September 30, 2008 09:54 EDT
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Re: Stocks will got up today.

Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Tue 30 Sep 2008, 10:11:20

Up about 250 at the moment.
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Re: Stocks will got up today.

Unread postby Zardoz » Tue 30 Sep 2008, 10:37:33

Edit the thread title, Jason.
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Re: Markets and the Dead Cat Bounce

Unread postby deMolay » Tue 30 Sep 2008, 11:01:19

Key Phrase. ``The money markets have completely broken down, with no trading taking place at all,'' said Christoph Rieger, a fixed- income strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort in Frankfurt. ``There is no market any more. Central banks are the only providers of cash to the market, no-one else is lending.''
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Re: Markets and the Dead Cat Bounce

Unread postby jasonraymondson » Tue 30 Sep 2008, 11:56:54

Zardoz wrote:Edit the thread title, Jason.


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