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2015

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

2015

Unread postby cualcrees » Thu 02 Oct 2008, 10:06:50

Ok, time to dust off those magic crystal balls and make a prediction!

The year is 2015, what does the world look like?
What has changed or stayed the same? How have PO, GW, economic collapse, etc... impacted our civilization?

Anybody wants to take a shot at it?
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Re: 2015

Unread postby Rubin_Flagg » Thu 02 Oct 2008, 10:21:00

So the crash continues...
The 750 billion is not going to do anything but delay the inevitable. I'm not going to be a doom and gloomer, waiting in my bunker until the ammo runs out.

Its time to mount up and ride.
Let's cut the bullcrap and build the world that we want to see. Lets grow the food in our communities, retrofit our homes, build renewable energy and educate/change ourselves. It is possible!

There are all types of people who are actually creating the new world and the kinds of communities that are strong politically, economically and socially. (They will also defend themselves.) I'm getting tired of just doing my preps....its time to start acting like John Adams rather than Mad Max.

I look forward not to the breakdown of the world, the rebuilding it.
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Re: 2015

Unread postby Delphis » Thu 02 Oct 2008, 11:15:52

"In the year twenty...one five, if man is still alive" Great song!

I think we all have a good idea of what will and won't work as the crash and power down take place. My concern, and the concern of my closest friends is the lawlessness and such. There will have to be a respect factor, pecking order, whatever you want to call it that will establish on a community level what actions are to be taken to ensure the good of the whole. I have been reading as many manuscripts as possible from the 1700's and early 1800's. Those people had a hard life but it worked, no government, not a great deal of personal hygeine (LOL) but it worked. I envision our homes as our wagons and it is very important with whom we choose to circle, and who enforces with whom we keep out of our community. We lived the way we will need to live for thousands of years...e.g. no power, manual trade routes, etc. The party is over, there will be a lot of mess to clean up but we will make it, and my opinion is the world will be a very beautiful place...

Respect, Recycl, re-use, and rebuild will be important concepts between now and 2015.

Good post cual.
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe."....Albert Einstein
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Re: 2015

Unread postby RedStateGreen » Thu 02 Oct 2008, 12:37:58

Delphis wrote:I think we all have a good idea of what will and won't work as the crash and power down take place. My concern, and the concern of my closest friends is the lawlessness and such.


You know, that made me think of the Zimbabwe article thread. Those people are doing terribly, but as far as I can tell from what I've read there's not a lot of lawlessness. While in Argentina, there's home invasions, people attacking food trucks, etc. In Haiti the rioting seems to be against the government, not each other.

I really think it will depend on the community. I'm thinking of all the places I've lived. For example, I just can't see a lot of lawlessness here in Oklahoma. I mean, we don't even have graffiti to speak of, and let's face it, just about everyone has a gun. On the other hand, I could see that happening in parts of southern California, especially in Los Angeles. Chicago? Maybe in some neighborhoods, but most are tight-knit and everyone knows who belongs there and who doesn't. Maybe some people might go downtown and cause trouble but in general I can't see them rioting or looting, unless things have changed a lot from when I lived there twenty years ago.

I guess what I'm saying is just because one area has trouble doesn't mean yours will.
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Re: 2015

Unread postby startswithearthquakes » Thu 02 Oct 2008, 13:08:17

Giant robot spiders will rule the earth, ripping people apart with their built in mega crotches!
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Re: 2015

Unread postby Grifter » Thu 02 Oct 2008, 13:54:59

A huge number of Americans were wooooshed up into outer space during the rapture in 2012 leaving just Atheists and people who believed the wrong thing behind. The US population is within its carrying capacity and a happy go lucky agrarian society is flourishing.

The war of Armageddon has been fought in the Middle East leaving the desert ......erm......deserted.

Russia, having taken over Europe is at War with Chindia. Sucks to be in Europe but we still have tv's and stuff.

South America is now Brasilia. Africa in Turmoil as its territory is divided up between Chindia and the Russian Federation.

Oceania is a prison colony again.

Oh and the Aliens from Nibiru have departed the solar system having ignored us on this pass because we're so farkin rough ass and wanted to nuke them. Wont be back for 5500 years.

Oh, and North is South and South is North.

In 50 years the world will have fusion power.
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Re: 2015

Unread postby Ferretlover » Thu 02 Oct 2008, 15:32:04

2015? Jeeeezzz, I just want to make it through the next year or two with some little success.
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Re: 2015

Unread postby JustaGirl » Thu 02 Oct 2008, 16:34:48

Grifter - I can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not, but I actually agree with some of your post :-D

I have no idea honestly. I think we might be on the verge of another ice age though.
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Re: 2015

Unread postby Madpaddy » Thu 02 Oct 2008, 16:57:41

The north American continent has merged into a single superstate called Cybertron ruled by a despot known only as JACK. The superstate is well within carrying capacity as all dissenters, the crippled and the obese were brought to the agrarian fields and their bodies ploughed into the ground as fertiliser.

Ireland has become the new Switzerland of Europe as it became a safe haven for the cash deposits of the rich during the financial crisis of 2008. Britain went bankrupt and was bought by the Irish government for €1. The new country is known as The Republic of Great Ireland and Little Britain.

China, Russia, India Japan and Pakistan had a five way war between 1st and 2nd November 2011 which annihilated all five countries and the total global population is now 3.6 billion and falling.

Brazil is now the most powerful country in the world and won the soccer world cup AGAIN in 2010 and 2014.

The genetic infusion of all the Eastern Europeans into Israel became manifest in 2011 and the vast majority of Israelis are now raving alcholics. In 2012 Israel and Ireland held the first drunk Olympics which ended inconclusively when all the competitors forgot what it was they were supposed to be doing. The new mellow Israelis have made peace with the Palestinians.

Mercedes have just unveiled the first mass production carbon neutral car.

The must have fashion item are WattShoes produced in France. A clever arrangement of springs in the soles moves a dynamo which is used to charge mobile devices such as cell phones.

George Bush and Dick Cheney are wanted by the International court in the Hague and extradition arrangements are well underway with the Paraguayan authorities.

The newest and fastest growing religion in the world is Golemism.
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Re: 2015

Unread postby RedStateGreen » Thu 02 Oct 2008, 18:45:19

Jack in charge??

8O
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Re: 2015

Unread postby Pops » Thu 02 Oct 2008, 20:44:22

8 years...

I think the US will be thinking our economy is once again on the upswing.

I'm thinking that will be wrong.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: 2015

Unread postby Northern_Pike » Fri 03 Oct 2008, 01:05:47

Disclaimer:

The following is a work of fiction, written by me. It is purely for entertainment purposes only. In no way do I think any of the scenarios portrayed in this work are likely, possible, or true. My purpose was not to offend anyone in anyway, and if I did, I apologize. I simply tried to convey that desperate times might cause masses of people to behave in a manner that they would otherwise find abhorrent.

Although some known names were used, this is in no way a reflection of my opinions on these individuals, their politics, what I believe they are capable of, or what I think they might actually do or not do. I make no claims to clairvoyance, nor does this reflect what I actually believe will be the state of the world in the year 2015. Even though I used some stereotypes, this doesn’t mean I believe they hold true, nor did I mean any harm by perpetuating them.

Although I make reference to numerous wars, I in no way advocate war anywhere for any reason, though I do believe there are times it is needed; and I do believe a "just war" can exist. I have seen war up close and personal, have no desire to see it again, but only attempt to display the horrors that wars may produce. Again, if this story offends you, I apologize.

- Pike

State of the world on 21NOV2015…

Europe:

Great Britain recovers from a bloody and devastating revolution. The Parliament was breached by a mob, the members dragged out to Parliament Square, and hung from lampposts. A group named Citizens Against Sharia Law (CASL commonly known as Castle) applied for and received permits to peacefully demonstrate Parliament’s intent of full adoption of Sharia Law. The mob angered over the impending adoption of Sharia Law, and fueled by the famine and abject poverty plaguing the nation, quickly grew out of control, and became more violent as the day wore on.

The protest that began as a legally sanctioned demonstration grew from the initial 3,000 demonstrators to number approximately just over 2 million by evening of the same day as it begun, trapping members inside Parliament as violence ensued. In addition to the loss of every Member of Parliament present, over 12,000 police and security officials, and nearly 90,000 citizens, were killed in the melee. Three members of Parliament that were absent that day, escaped the violence, and are believed to have sought exile in the NAF (former U.S.A).

The violence did not end in Parliament Square. Genocide, the systematic elimination of nearly the entire population of Muslims, was barely prevented by great effort of sympathetic Britons and French who smuggled an unknown number of Muslim people into France and numerous other European Countries.

A recent suicide bomb attack succeeded in collapsing the "Chunnel." The militant, newly-labeled terrorist organization "Castle" has claimed responsibility.

By popular demand, King Henry IX assumed control of Great Britain in full roll of ruler of the newly named Kingdom of England. Soon after the transfer of absolute power, the King’s decrees began making significant improvements to the lives of the nation’s people.

The rest of the European Union's Nation States have divided themselves into nearly a mirror of their former status. The Euro was abandoned as a form of currency, every nation returning to its former currency as per pre-EU. While no nation faced the violent upheaval witnessed in the Kingdom of England, poverty and famine are the norm, and many small outbreaks of violence of left the nations of Europe a shadow of their former selves.

North America:

Mexico, Canada, and the Former United States of America have merged into what have become a largely symbolic nation-state, known as the North American Federation (NAF) Mexico, Canada, and the U.S. each contributed 31, 13, and 55, states, provinces, and territories, respectively. The NAF is largely considered symbolic because nearly all day to day governance has decentralized, first down to the individual states, then even down to the city, county, and in some cases, township or small town level, with little influence from higher authorities.

The only remaining service provided by a centralized Federal Government on a consistent and organized basis is the military. Perhaps this priority led to the placement of the NAF capital, by the Capital City Selection Committee of the NAF Senate. The committee chose Colorado Springs, situated near NORAD, and a greatly expanded Fort Carson. The NAF President, Pres. Joseph Biden, has promised to work hard with Congress in an effort to facilitate the long anticipated lifting of Martial Law. All 194 members of the Senate have left New Capital Valley to begin their holiday vacations today.

Dynamic commerce of great distances in nature is extremely rare. Trucks on the vast and decaying interstate highway system are seldom seen, are nearly always part of a convoy complete with armed escort, and are reserved mostly for official government affairs, for example, food transfer and distribution, mass relocation, and populace control shifts. This is not to indicate the road system goes unused by the masses, despite the advanced state of disrepair (some fallen bridges have added up to hundreds of additional miles to journeys that used to be minutes short by automobile)

The road system now sees a great deal of use from horse and cart traffic, martial armored-vehicle patrols, bicycle, and pedestrian traffic. Cattle, sheep, and various other livestock are also moved along these routes in great herds, tended by men on horseback, or in the case of small herds, even by a single youth with a crooked stick. Bandits and highwaymen plague almost every route known on the continent. Though, much has been done to eliminate this threat, it remains stubborn to remove in many areas.

Food availability has increasingly improved lately. Lifting of the ban on unregulated agriculture, localized farming, and Central Nutrition Facilities (CNFs) have eased famine for the majority of areas across the NAF. The CNFs are supplied via railway and are huge centers of commerce, where wagon caravans filled with community representative merchants arrive continually to barter for food, tools, and other basic manufactured goods to bring home to their communities. Though the former U.S. Dollar, Canadian Dollar, and Peso are all still in common circulation, barter has become the main form of trade. However, Pres. Biden promises the issue of a new NAF currency along with an official currency exchange is in the works and is soon coming.

Work on numerous new hydro electric plants, nuclear power plants, and energy wind farms seems to have taken two speeds: excruciatingly slow and stopped altogether. Though countless excuses abound, plentiful labor cannot be counted among them. Most experts agree the delays can be traced from dearly lacking viable construction methods and vehicles, to shortages in components and parts, which in turn can be traced back to extreme difficulties involved in gathering raw materials and transporting them to and from factories and facilities.

The President is riding high on his tremendous approval rating, having announced that elections shall be held as scheduled next year, and having successfully ended the brief war with Russia. In reality, the peace treaty was eagerly signed by both nations soon after the very limited nuclear exchange.

The NAF was able to discern that the three ICBMs fired at targets within the continental NAF was the result of a Russian rogue Colonel acting without orders. The strategic defense anti-ballistic missile system was able to kill all but 6 re-entry vehicles, all but one of which were inert. However, that one that detonated devastated much of Washington D.C. and a large portion of Baltimore, MD. Upon notification of the dreadful breach of Russian Security, Self Proclaimed Tsar Putin contacted the NAF explaining the problem and sued for immediate peace. The NAF Northern Command was able to stand-down nearly all retaliatory strikes save the ones that devastated the Russian Aircraft Carrier Group Admiral Kuznetsov in the North Atlantic, and the two warheads that destroyed the Russian cities of Omsk and Perm.

The War for Alaskan Independence was of interest, if nothing more than a footnote in history. Despite early successes by the Alaska Territorial Guard (ATG) or “Eskimo Scouts” against the Canadian Special Operations Regiment (CSOR), a highly trained, mobile, special forces unit of the North American Federation Army (NAFA), Governor, turned President, Palin of the Nation of Independent Alaska (NIA) surrendered under condition of immunity for every Alaskan Citizen, excluding herself. Palin’s trial is likely to begin in early 2016. Popular outcries of Presidential pardon have, thus far, gone unanswered.

South America:

Civil unrest from protests to full civil war festers in nearly every corner of the entire continent of South America. The only Nation that seems to be thriving, albeit under severe martial law, is Venezuela. In fact, strongman turned brutal dictator Hugo Chavez stands poised and in good shape to strike out in any direction seen as desirable. Any such hostile grab for expansion may very well go nearly unopposed, if not welcomed by some populations of starving and downtrodden peoples.

Africa:

Most of the population of the continent sees very little change from the conditions they have experienced for at least the last two centuries. The major change in Africa is that most of the more affluent areas or nations have now joined the rest of the continent in poverty, famine, and local wars.

Australia:

Faring better than many nations of the world, Australia has made great advancements in alternative energy under a 4 year-old initiative that strove to implement wind, and solar power to reduce power shortages in the more populated areas. Rumors of Australia developing and hording a new secret “miracle” technology that seems to have helped them escape much of the world’s dilemmas, has run rampant in every corner of the world. This has led to deep resentment against Australia, world wide, warranted or not.

Currently the nation has closed its borders to all travelers and foreign commerce, including an ugly incident when a Royal Australian Navy Frigate fired upon and sunk a boat full of Indian refugees, part of a boat convoy escaping from the presumed Indian holocaust. Australian claims of coming foreign aid have been long awaited, and much desired by most of the world, without satisfaction. This has lead to hostile saber rattling from many nations, without any real action displayed to show it as more than rhetoric as of yet.

Asia:

Perhaps the bloodiest corner of the world is Asia. India was surprise attacked by a covert and seemingly unlikely alliance formed between Pakistan and the People’s Republic of China. The Chino-Pakistani Alliance’s intentions are unknown, however the brutal nature of the few reports coming out of India point to a total holocaust and total clearing of the population of India. This has turned recent speculation to thoughts that China and Pakistan may intend to divide up the land and resources of the region in efforts to feed and dissipate the suffering of over population and/or resource depletion present in both aggressor nations.

Chino-Pakistani nuclear strikes seem to have been limited to a decapitating attack that successfully prevented any counter-strike. Poorly performing, early-warning detection and/or some other paralyzing, unknown factor is being blamed for this total lack of a nuclear reply. Several major Indian cites have been reported to be entirely eliminated, however, farm land and wilderness areas have been untouched, even avoided, even when counter productive to the following ground conflict that was soon joined. Reports of successful Chinese attacks against nearly all the world’s information gathering satellites goes unconfirmed. However, nearly nothing of what is actually happening in India seems to be known for certain, and if it is, is not being reported by anyone. No one has shown any indication of helping India. Perhaps, help doesn’t intend to tip its hand, perhaps it will never materialize at all.

As a side note, recent Chinese activity in Antarctica is both massive and obscure. See notes below on Antarctic continent.

The Russian Empire has become extremely isolated and withdrawn from world affairs. An immediate cease of all military and all other aid to nations like Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, and others, has belied internal problems within the Russian Empire. After an accidental limited nuclear exchange with the NAF, which nearly drew The R.E. into a full-scale war, Russia may have changed its foreign relations policies drastically. Tsar Putin continues to rule with absolute authority. Reports emanating from the region are sketchy at best.

Middle East:

Unbelievable as it seems to most of the world, the Middle Eastern Nations seem mainly unchanged by recent world events. Other than renewed violence between Israel and the Palestinians, no major conflicts are arising in the region. No reports of famine have been claimed from the entire Middle East. Experts postulate that OPEC has begun to accept only food and durable goods in exchange for its oil. Unlike Australia, whose perceived good fortune has cause animosity and hostile rhetoric across the globe, harsh tongues speaking ill officially against OPEC nations seem nonexistent. Perhaps fear of total oil embargo keeps those tongues mute.

NAFA forces have completed withdrawal from Iraq. The now defunct NATO has withdrawn from Afghanistan, leaving only NAFA troops, now bolstered by 4 more divisions, created of units mostly from the former Mexican and Canadian region’s forces. Rumors of a build-up of NAFA on the Afghan-Pakistan border fuel speculation of a possible incursion into Pakistan of unknown intensity, ranging from small mountain raids searching for Al Queda, to full-scale invasion to mitigate hostile actions against India.

Antarctica:

Massive Chinese build-up and activity in Antarctica has led to speculation about that nation’s intentions there, one possibility being the discovery of fossil fuel reserves upon the continent.

An alternative, albeit considered less likely, scenario purports the PRC is burning massive amounts of coal, either brought from Mainland China or discovered at Antarctica, in efforts to exacerbate global warming. The theory continues that a 4 degree rises in global temperature may render some of Antarctica suitable for agriculture. Ironically, it is believed this same rise in global temperature would turn vast regions of Asia from farmland into desert.
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Re: 2015

Unread postby Ainan » Fri 03 Oct 2008, 05:47:52

I don't think 2015 will be much different than today, fuel will just be more expensive, people will continue to consume where ever they can, peak oil will still not be a household term.

I will have my secret nuclear bunker by then... :shock:
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Re: 2015

Unread postby cualcrees » Fri 03 Oct 2008, 09:41:28

@Northern_Pike:
Wow! Cool post! Very detailed!
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