[jasonraymondson]

How long until the Dow slides to the 8000 range?

[Duende]

I'm kind of a doomer and even I'm surprised at how fast critical mass is approaching. You know it's bad when it's water cooler talk.

[sittinguy]

The next poll will be how soon till stockbrokers are jumping out of windows.

I voted tomorrow. knock knock,, who's there? DOOM

[3aidlillahi]

I'm guessing around 8000-8500 on Nov. 4. We'll be below 8000 before Christmas hits, so I voted before Christmas season (late Nov.).

Really? What's the bottom? Like the human population, the DJIA is vastly above its sustainable level of a few hundred, maybe 2000. It has to drop off at some point. And since we've realized we have no economy, it's free fall time.

[nobodypanic]

The next poll will be how soon till stockbrokers are jumping out of windows.

I voted tomorrow. knock knock,, who's there? DOOM

so did i. heck we're practically into the 8000 range now.

[pedalling_faster]

i think the Dow will slide to 8000 in the next 6 months and find a plateau there. then it will commence a final slide to 4000-6000, despite attempts by the SEC to tweak the averages by removing stocks like GM & Ford & adding stocks like Google.

& adding stocks that get government business - then giving them government orders to pump up their stock - to reduce panic.

[nobodypanic]

i think the Dow will slide to 8000 in the next 6 months and find a plateau there. then it will commence a final slide to 4000-6000, despite attempts by the SEC to tweak the averages by removing stocks like GM & Ford & adding stocks like Google.

& adding stocks that get government business - then giving them government orders to pump up their stock - to reduce panic.

so you think it'll take us six months to drop another 448 points?

[UncoveringTruths]

In about one year the DOW has dropped 4,717 points.

[Tyler_JC]

We're down over 1000 points in the past 3 days.

At this rate the DJIA will break 8,000 by next week.

It's bad out there and getting worse.

[copious.abundance]

Before Christmas.

[yesplease]

We're down over 1000 points in the past 3 days.

At this rate the DJIA will break 8,000 by next week.

It's bad out there and getting worse.

These things seldom go according to this or that rate. Given the volume and [url=http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cp?s=^DJI]across the board[/url] drops it smells like a panic IMO. I don't think we'll go below 7,000-8,000, but only time will tell. Can't say I haven't been wrong before.

[buzzard]

I've never even been in the ball park with any poll. So i might jinx us if I tell you how I voted. After all, I still want my x-mas presents. (oops!)

[eastbay]

Don't be silly. 8,000? Never happen. 9,400 something was it. That was bottom.

It'll start heading right back up tomorrow and never look back.







Hey, a guy can dream, can't he???

[roccman]

We're down over 1000 points in the past 3 days.

At this rate the DJIA will break 8,000 by next week.

It's bad out there and getting worse.

Pull up a log around the camp fire tyler...it will be a long night.

[Tyler_JC]

I'm trying to find a historical precedent for falling below the lows of the previous bear market, can you find one?

Throw in inflation and we never really beat the 2000 highs but even ignoring inflation, we could easily fall below the 7,700 (?) level in nominal terms.

That would be absolutely devastating for investor psychology.

Then again, so would a fall below 9,000...

[the48thronin]

<snip>

That would be absolutely devastating for investor psychology.

prepare to be devastated then!

[Zardoz]

A pundit was talking about bear markets on CNBC today. According to him, "normal" bear market cycles run about 600 days, and we're only a third of the way into that.

We have a long way to go. We'll see 8000 pretty soon, and it'll drop a lot more.

So much for the bailout perking things up. What a bust.

EDIT: Jim Cramer is talking 7700:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/27056590

Cramer was trying to get viewers to think about their five-year plan because a drop in the Dow to 7,700 is a very real possibility, he said. We hit that mark in 2002 when conditions on Wall Street and in the economy were considerably better. Now we have credit and housing problems worldwide, the budget deficit has skyrocketed and unemployment’s on the rise.

[drgoodword]

I'd like to think I'm as pessimistic on the economy as the next non-cornucopian PO'er, but am I the only one who was amazed at how the Dow just blew through 10,000 on the way down Monday, and how it closed Tuesday at 9400 (and change) like the 10,000 mark didn't mean a thing?

Even though at the beginning of the year I was sure the Dow would end up under 10K by year-end (and said so in the January prediction thread), I had still hoped to see a little more resistance at 10,000, for sentimental reasons if nothing else.

[emersonbiggins]

I'd like to think I'm as pessimistic on the economy as the next non-cornucopian PO'er, but am I the only one who was amazed at how the Dow just blew through 10,000 on the way down Monday, and how it closed Tuesday at 9400 (and change) like the 10,000 mark didn't mean a thing?

Even though at the beginning of the year I was sure the Dow would end up under 10K by year-end (and said so in the January prediction thread), I had still hoped to see a little more resistance at 10,000, for sentimental reasons if nothing else.

Yeah, I was surprised. Oil bounced around at $100 for quite a while longer than the Dow hung around 10k.

It is also interesting that a 100:1 ratio between the Dow and crude oil seems to be developing, just as we are hitting a full-blown recession. I wonder if it will hold as the stock market continues to go south, along with demand for energy.

[jasonraymondson]

Dow now down to -206 to 9051 only 51 more points to dow 8000


Dow 10 year chart by month

I really think we stand a chance to see 7000 again