[Heineken]

My gut feeling is that we've seen the worst of it.

The government and Fed seem to have an endless array of "tools" they can use. They'll just keep using them until the problem is neutralized. I had no idea they were this powerful.

Probably living standards for average Americans will continue to fall for a while, but the rich class is completely intact, and they're what the whole game is about.

Soon enough the markets will realize that oil and other commodities are much cheaper now, and greed will set in again to make hay out of them.

[Roccland]

The USD still needs to crash.

6 billion still need to starve.

Microchips for the remaining "prisoners" (thanks McCain)...need implanted.

Gas needs to go away.

Nope - a lot of play left in this crash.

47 story buildings just don't drop out of the sky for a mere 35% drop in the dow.

[Arsenal]

I hope you're right. I must have eaten something that doesn't agree with me because my gut is saying this is just the beginning.

This might hold things together until after the elections but before the New Year I think the other shoe will drop.

Just my 2 cents.

[Heineken]

The USD still needs to crash. 6 billion still need to starve. Microchips for the remaining "prisoners" (thanks McCain)...need implanted. Gas needs to go away. Nope - a lot of play left in this crash. 47 story buildings just don't drop out of the sky for a mere 35% drop in the dow.

I agree with most of what you say. What I'm saying is that THIS may not be it. Not yet. The System still has enormous power to prop itself up. It has many more arrows in its quiver, and it will use them.

[Madpaddy]

I don't know Heineken but you could be right.

Certainly, the elite will survive and probably profit from this whole mess. The game and the rules are all rigged in their favour and when it goes wrong they just change the rules again. The system is engineered to transfer money from poor/middle income earners to the top tier. There will be outliers on both sides, those who get lucky or are exceptionally talented and can rise to the top tier or those in the top tier who f.xk up.

The next weeks will tell an awful lot. If the markets have regained this weeks losses by the end of the month, I think the crisis is over.

[MD]

The USD still needs to crash. 6 billion still need to starve. Microchips for the remaining "prisoners" (thanks McCain)...need implanted. Gas needs to go away. Nope - a lot of play left in this crash. 47 story buildings just don't drop out of the sky for a mere 35% drop in the dow.

I agree with most of what you say. What I'm saying is that THIS may not be it. Not yet. The System still has enormous power to prop itself up. It has many more arrows in its quiver, and it will use them.

Tough call. Very tough. I'm inclined to side with Heine for the moment, but events can run out from under "control" at any time.

[Roccland]

The USD still needs to crash. 6 billion still need to starve. Microchips for the remaining "prisoners" (thanks McCain)...need implanted. Gas needs to go away. Nope - a lot of play left in this crash. 47 story buildings just don't drop out of the sky for a mere 35% drop in the dow.

I agree with most of what you say. What I'm saying is that THIS may not be it. Not yet. The System still has enormous power to prop itself up. It has many more arrows in its quiver, and it will use them.

i am hearing that leh auction is tomorrow...not today

monday bank holiday??

[mgibbons19]

Wasn't it adam smith himself who said "the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."
At any rate, how these things go down is beyond our predictability. Just because we see what we think is the larger historical movement, doesn't mean we will be able to call it on the spot. We could be right over 50 yrs time, and be way wrong today. I agree with you Heineken that this may or may not be it.

[IndigoMoon]

Just a thought, but with the gas prices coming down because of the oil prices coming down, won't everyone running out to top off their tanks cause the gas to pretty much go away?

[Gebari]

I don't think so, have you seen the TED spread? It's at a new high today, over 4. It's never been this high before, which indicates the credit markets are not loosening but continuing to seize up ever tighter. Government debt continues to rise as well, with consequences later.

Perhaps it is the end of the beginning. Even if lending markets ease and the immediate crisis ends, things will never be the same ever again - don't expect business as usual for a long time, and maybe never if oil comes back into the picture. Things have changed big time with all the actions taken, and there's a lot of surprises in store I am sure.

[charliebrownout]

I have no idea. I'm inclined to doubt it, but I'm not the person to ask. I wasn't a business major, I was a psychology major. Ask me if the current world is crazy or not. I can answer that one.

[Heineken]

The game and the rules are all rigged in their favour and when it goes wrong they just change the rules again. The system is engineered to transfer money from poor/middle income earners to the top tier. . . .

Perfectly put, Mad.
Religious systems work the same way. Discover that the Earth revolves around the Sun instead of the other way around---just rewrite the Bible a little!

[Spanktron9]

Just a thought, but with the gas prices coming down because of the oil prices coming down, won't everyone running out to top off their tanks cause the gas to pretty much go away?

I don't think so. It may prompt a sigh of relief from J6P that things are returning to "normal". But the financial pain of the past 6 months has not left the under classes with any wiggle room.

Anecdote- I was in court for parking violation the other day, about 15 other people there as well. Court documents said they expect payment on the spot for fines (ranging from 70-500 dollars). I was one of 3 people who could pay their fine. Most of the rest were unable to pay ANYTHING on the spot and had to come up with "payment plans" with the court. The level of financial distress out there is frightening. The vast majority of citizens in my area are woefully underfunded and unaware. We are so screwed.

[Jotapay]

There is absolutely nothing to hold the market up while short term lending is frozen, accounting standards are crap, and asset values (real estate, esp) continue to be way too high relative to people's wages.

I see the DJIA down to 3750-5500 range.

[Heineken]

I think collapse will come when demand for key commodities exceeds supply, and the environment deteriorates below some critical level that is as yet unclear.

The financial system is an artificial overlay on those REAL systems and can in the meantime be rejiggered, as Madpaddy says.

[RdSnt]

As Rocc alluded to, Lehman's CDO redemptions are triggered tomorrow (Friday).
Unless the PTB have rigged it somehow to hide that there there is a significant re-valuation of cdo derivatives tomorrow that will give a clear signal of how much this heavily leveraged paper is worth (zero).

I would expect a bad reaction, particularly since the G7 don't meet till Saturday.
US markets are opening very soft today and I would expect that same sort of pattern as yesterday with a late day collapse.

[Zardoz]

My gut feeling is that we've seen the worst of it...

Pretty much. Go with your gut. There's still some shaking out to be done, but the bottom is probably in sight now.

Lately we seem to be ignoring the fact that everything around us is fueled by or made from crude oil. Remember oil? Look up at the top of this page. We've forgotten what this site is all about. We're still burning up something like 87 million barrels of it a day, aren't we? Certainly we all know what that means.

Sure. The financial scam we've been running for a while is unraveling at last. It's about time. The real estate bubble we all knew would burst has popped with a vengeance. The landscape has changed a lot. Many players are gone. We're all poorer. Millions of us have been hurt very badly. More will be.

But the sun is about to rise yet again this morning, at least out here. Has it risen where you live?

The mirrors have been re-arranged, and they'll be re-arranged some more. But the game will go on. Some pundits are already talking about a slowly-developing bull market by the end of the year. We'll see about that.

You're right, Hein. Things are settling down, at last. There are still lots of zingers in store for us, and we'll be adjusting to a lower level of economic activity, but the daily onslaught of horrendous calamities is starting to ease.

[IndigoMoon]

Also, if it matters, Monday the 13th is Columbus Day. Columbus Day is a federal holiday. Banks, post office and other government offices will be closed.

[Arsenal]

I think collapse will come when demand for key commodities exceeds supply, and the environment deteriorates below some critical level that is as yet unclear.

The financial system is an artificial overlay on those REAL systems and can in the meantime be rejiggered, as Madpaddy says.

I agree that would be a total collapse of the global markets. The USA on the other hand is teetering on the edge and only needs a few more nudges to fall in. But hey!! The markets are in the green today so crisis adverted.

[frankthetank]

I flipped a coin... according to my research (coin flip) the crisis is over. I highly recommend putting lots and lots of money into the market Get rid of that gold too, that is worthless.