[CoachT]

This is what I said in my July 15th post.

[i]Like I said last week. It will be below $100.

$145, $145, $145
Do I hear $130, $130, $130
Do I hear $100, $100, $100
Do I hear $80, $80 going twice, SOLD for $80

Enjoy the ride.[/i]

Now I am saying oil will be $60 per barrel by the spring of 2009.

Still going down.

[davep]

This is what I said in my July 15th post.

[i]Like I said last week. It will be below $100.

$145, $145, $145
Do I hear $130, $130, $130
Do I hear $100, $100, $100
Do I hear $80, $80 going twice, SOLD for $80

Enjoy the ride.[/i]

Now I am saying oil will be $60 per barrel by the spring of 2009.

Still going down.

Anyone can make predictions. It would help if you provided some rationale for your assertion.

[evilgenius]

Spring is always a good time to find cheap oil. If it is in the high 80's now and we are only beginning the traditional time of price decline then we could see $60. The biggest question is will demand pick up at the end of spring like it always has or has the world changed permanently? I reckon there will be some kind of uptick at that time. We are too far out yet to know whether it will be enough to cross the level of daily production capacity, hence enough to enflame the oil markets and cause us to see new records.

[rockdoc123]

Oil will be volatile for sometime as the futures market trading is governed by many other things than just supply and demand.

Yes it can bounce high as we saw but demand destruction sends it the other way. It can also bounce low but that too will be temporary simply because the market is still tight and costs have risen enormously. Much of the oil that is "new reserves" over the past 4 years is heavy oil from places like Canada and Venezuela. The marginal cost of these barrels is quite high (I've seen quotes from 80 - 90/bbl). As a consequence if oil dips to $60/bbl suddenly there is a ton of oil taken off the immediate market and there is even less activity to replace reserves than in the past. Hence the next bounce up is quicker and higher than previsous.

Remember that even though there has been demand destruction (mainly in the US) this has only affected the rate of demand increase globally. The IEA still expects global demand to increase at about 1%/annum next year. Couple that with the fact discoveries are not keeping pace with production, projects are regularily delayed etc. and you should realize that any drop in price is going to be short lived.

[mark]

When oil was headin' toward 147, 200 was just around the corner. Now that oil has fallin' out o' bed, 60 is just around the corner. So what! Who cares what you think? unless you can provide evidence that you've got some inside dope to explain your guess.

[CoachT]

Oil will go up slightly when the stock market bounces back but then it will gradually drop to $60.

$80, $80, $80
Do I hear $70, $70, $70
Do I hear $60, $60 going twice, SOLD for $60.

Don't get caught holding again. This is the second time I am warning you.

Talk to you in the spring.

[JustaGirl]

Didn't OPEC say they would cut production before letting the price fall much below the $90-100 range? I know Iran wants to keep it at $100. I just don't see it hitting $60 again, unless 50% of the world population is unemployed. Guess we'll see. Nothing I would personally be excited to see.

[hironegro]

I think opec will protect the 80$ position

[smallpoxgirl]

I think opec will protect the 80$ position

May be a tough line to hold politically once the world falls into the Greater Depression. Just saying.

[hironegro]

I think opec will protect the 80$ position

May be a tough line to hold politically once the world falls into the Greater Depression. Just saying.

There is nothing we can do to stop a severe economic recession at this point?