[jasonraymondson]

Well since we just took care of that last benchmark, what is everyone's opinion of the Dow hitting the 7000 area.


on a side note, I wish I could fix the wording of the poll answers.

[hironegro]

I hope not. Maybe all these government actions in the market-place will finally start to have their intended result.

[nobodypanic]

unless there's some intervention before tomorrow morning, then 9:31 am friday.

[jasonraymondson]

Look at this chart. http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/djia1900.html

People actually thought that this kind of BS growth was sustainable. Just goes to show you, that people REALLY are stupid.

Reminds me of the guy who wrote that book DOW 36000

[Gebari]

30 minutes ago I voted for next week, now I think it might be tomorrow.

[jbrovont]

Let me preface this with "I don't know how to determine where this point is."

That said, I have a feeling that the valuation of companies will approach a point where it reflects the real value of what they produce, or the service they render. I'm not sure of the best way to express this theory.

For instance, businesses that are running a constant deficit, or depend on deficit spending, are likely to have a real-world value of less that $0 per share - they consume more value (weath) than they create. I expect these to evaporate as easy debt dries up. Businesses that actually create value, I expect to increase in value - perhapse even hyperbolically and above their actual value as debt based money flees the collapsing debt-based companies.

Anyone want to weigh in on this idea?

[jasonraymondson]

Should I start a poll: Dow 32 cents

[Concerned]

Look at this chart. http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/djia1900.html

People actually thought that this kind of BS growth was sustainable. Just goes to show you, that people REALLY are stupid.

Reminds me of the guy who wrote that book DOW 36000

Actually if they were willing to crank the printing presses the DOW could easily get to 36000 and beyond.

[Woodenpaddler]

Probably not $0 per share; human nature is to always retain a little bit of hope.

[smallpoxgirl]

Excellent chart. I didn't realize the 1929 crash was that severe. It went from 380 in 1929 down to 42 by 1933. That's a 89% drop. If this crash does that, we'll be looking at a bottom of 1540.

[shady28]

After Christmas.

Fear is hitting a crescendo, you can feel it here and other places.

That means a (temporary) bottom approaches.

[shady28]

Excellent chart. I didn't realize the 1929 crash was that severe. It went from 380 in 1929 down to 42 by 1933. That's a 89% drop. If this crash does that, we'll be looking at a bottom of 1540.

It was actually worse than that. The indices don't include bankrupt companies. I've read where, if you were actually using the 1929 index in 1932/33, it would have fallen by 96%.

[ColossalContrarian]

Look at this chart. http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/djia1900.html

People actually thought that this kind of BS growth was sustainable. Just goes to show you, that people REALLY are stupid.

Reminds me of the guy who wrote that book DOW 36000

Actually if they were willing to crank the printing presses the DOW could easily get to 36000 and beyond.

Per that graph it looks like the printing presses have been on for about 25 years or so...

but yeah, at the rate things were going (in fantasy land America) we'd have been at 36000 in no time!

[TheDude]

Let me preface this with "I don't know how to determine where this point is."

That said, I have a feeling that the valuation of companies will approach a point where it reflects the real value of what they produce, or the service they render. I'm not sure of the best way to express this theory.

Sounds like price discovery. We are finding out what these companies are really worth, much to their board of directors' and shareholders' horror.

For instance, businesses that are running a constant deficit, or depend on deficit spending, are likely to have a real-world value of less that $0 per share - they consume more value (weath) than they create. I expect these to evaporate as easy debt dries up. Businesses that actually create value, I expect to increase in value - perhapse even hyperbolically and above their actual value as debt based money flees the collapsing debt-based companies.

That sounds like a financial equivalent to EROEI, manifesting itself before energy is the major issue, too. Wait until that happens, you'll have an order of magnitude less distance involved in Ceasar salad production.

[Rubin_Flagg]

I think the idea that we will see 7000 is crazy....try 3000 in the next year. I'm holding on to cash and will start looking to reinvest when its in the 3000....of course that might we a bit to high.

[drgoodword]

From The Guardian's summary of today's continuation of the market rout:

Traders said that there were simply no buyers in the market and that selling was becoming indiscriminate as collapsing hedge funds liquidate their portfolios and private investors cut their losses.

Capitulation it is.

[Tyler_JC]

Let's be honest with ourselves.

The DJIA is a bullsh*t indicator. The stocks are changed too frequently. If you put AIG back in the index (they only took it down last month), we'd be another couple hundred points lower.

Real financial industry experts us the S&P 500 as benchmark.

And we're trading at an 11 year low in that one.

The compound interest rate since 1950 for the S&P is now only 7% per year.

Throw in a compound inflation rate of 3% (and likely higher from now on) and we're down even further.

Try throwing that into a retirement calculator.

[Narz]

Next Tuesday!!!!!!!!!!111!1!11 Buy gold!1w!1!!11 Bunker time!1!1!!1 You're going to die but not me baby!!! I'm going to live foreeeeveereerrrr!!! 500 MPH into a wall!! I hate humanity!!!!!!

Seriously though : I'd guess Feb or March next year. If not by then, not for a long time, maybe never.

[doomlover666]

My prediction is about 2 weeks from now.

[Cid_Yama]

Monday. That is, if markets open on Monday.