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Credit Crisis Hit Home Already

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Credit Crisis Hit Home Already

Unread postby chakra » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 13:44:45

Just days after all this economic turmoil, my company has already released a statement to its employees. This is the first three lines.

"The global financial crisis has lead to rapid reductions in steel demand. In less than a month, there has been a virtual stop in steel buying and the short to mid-term market outlook is weak. Consumer confidence is at an all-time low and credit lines are feeling the crunch."

I'll be laid off in the next few weeks and we were a booming business last month, generating record profits. Our company is going into cash savings mode and will be cutting it's production in half until things become more clear.

There you go, this situation can spiral much faster then most people realize and it's already hit home for me in a very hard way.
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Re: Credit Crisis Hit Home Already

Unread postby Snowrunner » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 13:47:25

chakra wrote:There you go, this situation can spiral much faster then most people realize and it's already hit home for me in a very hard way.


Actually sorta, kinda. I think what they are doing is really go into cash savings mode, a month of bad earnings / no orders shouldn't put a company under, but I guess they work on the assumption that this is only the beginning of the slump.

I would agree that other companies will probably do the same thing in no short order, with the ballooning Dollar any exporter in the US will be hard(er) hit increasing the problem.
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Re: Credit Crisis Hit Home Already

Unread postby Bas » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 14:14:10

chakra wrote:
There you go, this situation can spiral much faster then most people realize and it's already hit home for me in a very hard way.


very good example of how things can quickly turn south, chakra, I'm sorry it has hit you personally.
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Re: Credit Crisis Hit Home Already

Unread postby Pfish » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 14:16:00

Chakra!

Sorry to hear about your misfortune. Tough time for all. With any luck, this will pass in a few weeks and months and we can get back to it. Stay healthy.
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Re: Credit Crisis Hit Home Already

Unread postby heroineworshipper » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 14:34:47

Have personally frozen all discretionary spending. All companies in debt have to lay off immediately. Publicly traded companies have to lay off at the first sign of trouble. Private companies with cash have the most leverage, but will probably punish workers for their boss's real estate losses anyway.
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Re: Credit Crisis Hit Home Already

Unread postby hironegro » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 15:51:11

chakra wrote:Just days after all this economic turmoil, my company has already released a statement to its employees. This is the first three lines.

"The global financial crisis has lead to rapid reductions in steel demand. In less than a month, there has been a virtual stop in steel buying and the short to mid-term market outlook is weak. Consumer confidence is at an all-time low and credit lines are feeling the crunch."

I'll be laid off in the next few weeks and we were a booming business last month, generating record profits. Our company is going into cash savings mode and will be cutting it's production in half until things become more clear.

There you go, this situation can spiral much faster then most people realize and it's already hit home for me in a very hard way.


Sorry to hear about it bro. What's your plan of action now?
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Re: Credit Crisis Hit Home Already

Unread postby Ferretlover » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 15:52:03

I am so sorry to hear about your impending job loss, chakra. I do hope you find something to meet your needs very soon!
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Re: Credit Crisis Hit Home Already

Unread postby eastbay » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 16:00:30

That's what I call a canary in a coal mine folks. What a drag.
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Re: Credit Crisis Hit Home Already

Unread postby chakra » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 16:26:22

I'm here in Canada, so worst case hopefully I can collect unemployment for the next 11 months. For years I've been reading web pages like this one and have expected this to happen. All my investments were placed in insured cash investments over a year ago. Fortunately, I've also paid down all debt and now only have a mortgage payment which I was aggressively paying, so there's only a few years left on that too. So hopefully everything will stay somewhat normal and I can ride this our for a couple years if I have to.

Here's another blurb from the release that might interest people here, "In response, over the past two weeks steel mills across North America have drastically cut production."

Lets hope everything gets better. Sure it's exciting to live in interesting times, but it stings more when it directly effects you. My biggest concern now is that the economy will go into a tail spin and I never get called back to work.
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Re: Credit Crisis Hit Home Already

Unread postby emeraldg40 » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 16:48:54

chakra wrote:I'm here in Canada, so worst case hopefully I can collect unemployment for the next 11 months. For years I've been reading web pages like this one and have expected this to happen. All my investments were placed in insured cash investments over a year ago. Fortunately, I've also paid down all debt and now only have a mortgage payment which I was aggressively paying, so there's only a few years left on that too. So hopefully everything will stay somewhat normal and I can ride this our for a couple years if I have to.

Here's another blurb from the release that might interest people here, "In response, over the past two weeks steel mills across North America have drastically cut production."

Lets hope everything gets better. Sure it's exciting to live in interesting times, but it stings more when it directly effects you. My biggest concern now is that the economy will go into a tail spin and I never get called back to work.


Ouch...Sorry to hear this Chakra. Now imagine your plight and add to it losing your health insurance/healthcare and in some cases very little in the way of unemployment....and you've got the American version. I'm doubly sorry to hear about the steel as my bro in law is a hauler in Ontario. Boom - bust eh?
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Re: Credit Crisis Hit Home Already

Unread postby RedStateGreen » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 20:11:03

Sorry this has happened, Chakra. Let us know if there's anything we can do to help. Seems like us peak oilers should stick together.
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Re: Credit Crisis Hit Home Already

Unread postby TreebeardsUncle » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 01:06:31

Well, unemployment should be going up substantially.

It is unclear how much father the DOW has to fall, perhaps down to 6000 or 7000.

Agree a sustained cash position followed by real estate purchases would be a good move.

Pulled out of stocks in June and July but put too much in this Sep and Oct.

Lates.
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Re: Credit Crisis Hit Home Already

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 01:20:10

I'll be interested to see how long money is printed to fund Unemployment benefits, both in Canada and the US. Simlarly, how long will Social Security checks continue to be issued? If dividends off Stock related Penisons fail to deliver, just why would Social Security continue to deliver.?

There will be close to ZERO Tax revenue for the federal government next year. Currently, States are going bankrupt and are unable to meet THEIR payrolls.

I expect the payments will continue until the shelves are empty. Maybe takes a year for this to happen.

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Re: Credit Crisis Hit Home Already

Unread postby essex » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 04:19:01

Chakra, sounds like you have made sound decisions so far. You will have skills which can be used elsewhere. Would you consider selling your house and renting?

The market has absolutely savaged my investments, although there is some hope further out. Things can turn out in surprising ways, I have been teaching for 37 years and in dire need of a change of direction, when out of the blue three months ago I was offered a job managing a retirement village in Sydney, which has accomodation provided. I liquidated everything, sold land, car etc and then the CRASH. Would'nt have a chance of selling now as everything here is tanking big time. Went to a property auction on Weds - 7 houses up for sale, and all passed in with vendor bids only.
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Re: Credit Crisis Hit Home Already

Unread postby TheDude » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 04:32:35

Sorry you're getting a pink slip (or the Canuck equivalent), man. This will be the fate of many, no doubt.

Ironically, looking up headlines on GoogleI see this: Canada adds record 107000 jobs in September. 90% are part time, though...and who knows how your government distorts these figures. John Williams says US unemployment is already closer to 15%, about twice the official figure, which stopped including "discouraged" workers in the Clinton era; thus, Everything's Coming Up Roses.

When the dust settles steel is the kind of tangible asset that'll be back in demand. Everyone seems to agree about that, barring those that are envisioning nuclear holocaust etc.

Regarding state funds: Missouri unemployment insurance fund headed toward insolvency

By DIANE STAFFORD
The Kansas City Star

Missouri’s unemployment insurance fund is being pushed toward insolvency — again — by the wobbling economy.

The National Employment Law Project has identified Missouri as one of four states — along with Michigan, Ohio and New York — that face “immediate trust fund solvency challenges” this year.

“At this point, Missouri is not in a good place,” said Rick McHugh, an attorney and unemployment insurance expert at NELP, an organization that studies policy issues and advocates for low-wage and displaced workers.

“The state fund is only going to continue to go down until April,” McHugh said. “With six months to go (before the next large infusion of tax dollars to plump up the fund), we don’t think its reserves are adequate.”
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Re: Credit Crisis Hit Home Already

Unread postby Snowrunner » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 04:37:28

TheDude wrote:Ironically, looking up headlines on GoogleI see this: Canada adds record 107000 jobs in September. 90% are part time, though...and who knows how your government distorts these figures.


A bit less severely than the US, but not utterly honest either, especially these headlines, as a lot of these jobs swap fulltime for part time and especially the headlines don't separate that.
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