[Armageddon]

Add this to the impending credit card implosion crises and then the impending commercial real estate catastrophe , and 2009 is going to be the worst year in history. 2008 will seem like a bull market compared to 2009.

[gollum]

I have a friend who has borrowed a large amount of money building garages that people rent to work in, the rents are $500 a month. My friend is leveraged to the hilt to do this. Although there are a few small businesses who rent from him at least half are shade tree mechanics and car collectors. I think in a recession the first thing to go will be these hobby garages. My friend is going to be in real trouble, and the bank that loaned him all this money will never recover their losses.

[gollum]

This year we will sure buy the kids some toys, maybe a play station or x box, the wife and I also want a Bose wave radio. Having said that I am also trying to steer us towards some practical gifts like down comforters for the kids. For sure everything is cash this year.

[MD]

aren't you all just a bundle of optimism...

[MD]

Hogan, if you ever do escape....

[nobodypanic]

aren't you all just a bundle of optimism...

you're the one considering the possibility of becoming soylent green.

[IgnoranceIsBliss]

I agree that the retail death spiral is just getting started. I find this aspect of the recession very interesting for some reason. If you are a shopping center owner, prepare to lose your butt. If you are an employee and the store is empty most of the time, you should already be working your "plan B". What other kind of job are you quanlified for? (get ready for long term unemployment)

There are a lot of empty shopping center spaces in my town. Some are brand new centers, just waiting for tenants that will never come. (and my town is good sized, with a large medical community and multi-million mansions on the lake) I don't get the logic of putting a small strip center on every open parcel of land.
How many dry cleaners do we need?

Here's a sample of my local retail failures so far:
Our local baby boutique selling $30 infant clothes (which fit for like 2 weeks!) - soon to be toast
"Discount" furniture store - just closed (sign by the road never even got changed from the previous furniture store!)
Giant "Cheap buffet" restaurant- just closed
Wrough iron home accessory store - gone
pizza joint - gone
ladies gym - gone
"upscale" home accessory store - space for rent sign out front\
nail and day salon - just opened! (I'm watching this one closely to see how long it lasts. Poor location and very difficult to get into and out of due to being on corner of busy & strange shaped intersection)
Checkers fast food - gone
Take out dinner store - gone
used auto store - gone (and this was in a great location. The sign over the door says "Now Open!" and it's closed already.
Goody's discount clothing - 40,000 square foot anchor store - gone

Those are just the ones I can think of off the top of my head.

I also predict veterinary clinics hitting hard times as people cut back on Fido's shots.

[AlexdeLarge]

Dentistry will also be impacted. Even during normal business cycles, their business ebbs and wanes. People will put off all but the necessary dental work.

Heck... Rocc, before going into his bunker and slamming the blast doors, was prepared to pull all his teeth and gum his way through GD2! LOL

[seahorse2]

Interesting that Pepsi announces massive job layoffs one day after the market surges 11%. Only shows the market is no indicator of the real world and that these "bailouts" are doing nothing to solve the real problems. Debt problems are not made better by going into debt. Now, add this to the Pepsi story, a good friend of mine, a Pepsi exec, confirmed that Pepsi will not be paying their usual end of the year bonuses to their execs. Now, I'm sure the people at the very top like the CEOs will get their bonuses, but this fairly high exec I know won't be getting his. All this to say, the markets are divorced from any kind of reality out there.

[pup55]

Out here in suburbia, the developers count on exploiting the entrepreneurial pizza joint places (along with the nail salons, dry cleaners, and subways) by charging high rent, to pay for the big discounts they give the big-box people who anchor some of these shopping centers.

The big box dies, the little guys around them die.

What this means is that there will be even more dead strip shops. Only a matter of time before the developers themselves are out of business.

GE Capital is already feeling the pinch--they are in the business of financing these projects, and to a certain extent participate in the lease income.

You can envision how this sort of thing is going to migrate throughout the entire economy.

[IanC]

Here in Portland, I think there is going to be a pretty fast fall. We had very high housing prices for a very long time and people leveraged their newfound "wealth" to the hilt. As a consequence, there are TONS of stylish boutiques and home furnishing type places all over that I think are going to die-off rapidly. Not to mention the amazing amount of very expensive condos that were built all over town (most are now apartments for lack of buyers) in anticipation of an ever increasing housing market.

I think it's important to remember that so much of our "economy" in the US over the last few years was an illusion. We were spending beyond our means through excessive credit. The crash we're hitting now is just correcting us back to reality. I, for one, welcome that change, even if it means radically reasessing our ideas of what is valuable, what we're working for, and what the meaning of a good life is.

-Ian
PDX

[ReverseEngineer]

So how long until we Bailout Walmart?

Reverse Engineer

[threadbear]

I have a friend who has borrowed a large amount of money building garages that people rent to work in, the rents are $500 a month. My friend is leveraged to the hilt to do this. Although there are a few small businesses who rent from him at least half are shade tree mechanics and car collectors. I think in a recession the first thing to go will be these hobby garages. My friend is going to be in real trouble, and the bank that loaned him all this money will never recover their losses.

He could drop the rents and people could ditch their houses and apartments and live there. He could be the "apartment manager".

[threadbear]

Add this to the impending credit card implosion crises and then the impending commercial real estate catastrophe , and 2009 is going to be the worst year in history. 2008 will seem like a bull market compared to 2009.

Credit card companies are going to take huge hits. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch. This could be almost as big as subprime. What a flustercluck!

[Armageddon]

The NBA ( national basketball association ) just announced it is laying off 80 employees. I am not talking about players, just people who work directly for the NBA. Meanwhile the commissioner is making 27 mil. He really needs his entire 27 mil ? He can't take 20 and let the 80 employees fight over the scraps ? wow