[AirlinePilot]

Never fear peakster's! Things may be temporarily in a slight holding pattern but not to worry, very shortly we are going to trudge blindly right off the plateau!

Say goodbye to alternatives and any chance at a slow decline.

Thom Whipple Falls Church News

[mrobert]

No, there is no Peak Oil.
Crude is at $72 and going back to $20

[Tanada]

Weren't they supposed to fill the SPR up to capacity when oil falls below $80.00? When are they going to start doing so? As I understand it they have capacity for another 300 Mbbl, so even if they start buying at 1 Mbbl/day it would take most of a year to do the filling.

[MD]

Never fear peakster's! Things may be temporarily in a slight holding pattern but not to worry, very shortly we are going to trudge blindly right off the plateau!

Say goodbye to alternatives and any chance at a slow decline.

Thom Whipple Falls Church News

Fully agree!

The plateau was supposed to be extended by the production of more expensive oil. Now that won't happen to the same extent. Therefore we'll fall off the peak more rapidly. It won't get much attention though. The wreckage that was America will take the attention and bubbles will take the bulk of the blame.

[TheDude]

Weren't they supposed to fill the SPR up to capacity when oil falls below $80.00? When are they gaoing to start doing so? As I understand it they have capacity for another 300 Mbbl, so even if they start buying at 1 Mbbl/day it would take most of a year to do the filling.

spr.gov is on the fritz but they're likely at around 702 mb at the moment, after drawing down ca. 5.2 mb to deal with Ikeustav. DOE Emergency Situation Reports. The total capacity is 727 mb, the planned facility at Richton, Mississippi will hold an additional 160 mb.

Agree with Whipple all the way, except that like many he doesn't believe there's been much demand destruction. At least in the States the VMT stats and EIA figures suggest there has been a reduction in demand; but I also believe we may see a rebound with these lower gas prices, unless they're canceled out by general economic malaise. He's right that we're stuck between financial and energy related woes, too, a line I've been pushing, nice to see my theory validated.

[killJOY]

I never thought peak oil left us. In fact, I'm with Michael Klare, who called it long ago: the housing crash and ensuing clusterfrig is partly the result of oil prices spiking due to supply constrictions:

Barreling Into Recession.

[seldom_seen]

I never thought peak oil left us. In fact, I'm with Michael Klare, who called it long ago: the housing crash and ensuing clusterfrig is partly the result of oil prices spiking due to supply constrictions:

+1

Peak oil wrecked the pyramid scheme.

[killJOY]

Thanks, seldom.

I've also been thinking about Jeff Vail's prescient article here:

http://www.jeffvail.net/2008/05/oil-pri ... -fake.html

I think we're in the midst of the head fake of lower prices. If so, watch out.

[alokin]

That's mainly a problem of the media. The financial crash drew attention away from oil.
What is different is that the Western consumption fell and may fall even more, so maybe forecasts of crude demand will prove to be wrong. As maybe some of the expensive operations will be shut down or delayed we might have less crude until economy rebounds, if at all.
This makes forecasts much more difficult than if you would underlay an ever raising oil price.
What does Simmons tell about the low price,as he predicted $200 barrel?

[AirlinePilot]

Agree with Whipple all the way, except that like many he doesn't believe there's been much demand destruction. At least in the States the VMT stats and EIA figures suggest there has been a reduction in demand;

This is a GLOBAL issue, price is set GLOBALLY. There may be small momentum moves one way or another based on US demand, but overall, the price shakes out due to the global picture. Whipple is correctly pointing out that global demand is what we all need to pay attention to and not what is going on in the US alone.

I agree we have cut back slightly here in the US, to the tune of probably 8-9% but how long does that last If gas goes back towards 2.50/gallon? I'd submit we go almost right back to where we were, even with a sharp recession. The slowdown may mean lowered growth or even decreased demand here, but globally the picture still looks to be one of slow and steady growth YOY.

Our Media is Inundating folks with the story that demand has cratered and thats just really not the case. Look at where gas prices were just over a few years ago when crude was 40-50$/bbl. We're likely to approach 60$/bbl (maybe). Tell me how now compares to then. I'd think that as soon as demand picks back up, and it will, then we could easily see higher highs in the not too distant future.

[AirlinePilot]

Excellent link Killjoy!! Thanks.

[Plantagenet]

Here's another prescient discussion of the "head-fake".....i.e. recession bringing on lower oil prices just as global oil production starts to drop.

head fake

The head fake will result in 2-3 years of lower oil prices, wasting still more time that should've been used to bring on alternative "green" energy and nukes.

[wisconsin_cur]

Here's another prescient discussion of the "head-fake".....i.e. recession bringing on lower oil prices just as global oil production starts to drop.

head fake

The head fake will result in 2-3 years of lower oil prices, wasting still more time that should've been used to bring on alternative "green" energy and nukes.

From the link:

[alokin]

There is a recession in the US, in Europe but in Asia, that still can't be called recession, more a slow of growth. Their consumption is still growing.
There are so many factors which dictates the oil price that i really cannot know if the price climbs ever, tomorrow or in two years. Remember how many experts are wrong?
To make future scenarios we must go away from our Western centred world view.

[TheDude]

AP - I know demand is still growing in the BRIC countries, but consumption data is rather spotty for them. I figure a drop in price makes sense now, between undeniable decline in demand in OECD, slight increase in production from new projects for 08/09, and some curb in demand in non-OECD as well. Things don't look so sanguine a couple years down the road; Dante makes a strong case for hyper-inflation kicking in around then as well.

Agree all the way that changes in motorist behavior are wholly elastic; I bet we get some media reports about declines in MT usage soon. Dunno about Americans getting the SUV bug again, or going hog-wild on the discretionary travel. Wonder what kind of monkey wrench this fuel shortage threw into the SE US economy, too. Is it me or did the media do its level best to ignore that?

[Gebari]

Every oil price spike in history has triggered a global recession:

1973: Arab oil embargo oil price spike: few years later - GLOBAL RECESSION
1979: Iranian revolution oil price spike: few years later - GLOBAL RECESSION
1990: Gulf War oil price spike: few years later - GLOBAL RECESSION
2006: Peak oil price spike: few years later - GLOBAL RECESSION

It's no coincidence. Peak oil is the hidden cause of our crisis - it burst the bubble of the pyramid scheme that developed since around 1980, a bubble that we had to develop because peak oil per capita meant that proper economic growth became more difficult, so we resorted to not so real ways to keep the illusion of our economy growing.

The bubble was only possible with cheap and reasonably plentiful oil, so when this ended inflation rose, triggering interest rate hikes, combined with cost of living increasing (gasoline, food etc - peak oil triggered) made it more difficult for sub-prime mortage owners to pay - setting off a cascade of other events leading to the current financial crisis. Something like that.

[raisinbran]

Why is it so hard for peak oil die-hards to realize that Oil, the oil market, is only one gear clinking along in the giant system that is the world?

Peak oil is like taking a magnifying glass, focusing in on that one gear, ignoring pretty much everything else like the housing market, the financial system, currency movements and valuations, geopolitical/political considerations, international commerce, food, water (shortages), technology, the environment, etc., and trying to explain how this one gear, single handedly, can meltdown the entire system.

Sure, the gear can screw up and freeze the machine, just like Peak Oil is certainly plausible under certain set of assumptions and circumstances.

But, would you believe that that single gear underlies the ENTIRE operation of the machine? In that respect, the oil market is only one part of the world system.

When I followed peak oil with earnest enthusiasm, I noticed that I didn't really pay attention to anything else. But when I heard about the news of Bear Stearns collapsing, I thought, "well that must be an isolated event, unrelated to peak oil."

If you followed peak oil intensely and have been caught by surprise by the recent financial meltdown, you probably are missing the big picture of what's really going on.

If you do want to know what's really going on, start paying attention to the guy RUNNING the machine.

[yesplease]

The plateau was supposed to be extended by the production of more expensive oil. Now that won't happen to the same extent. Therefore we'll fall off the peak more rapidly. It won't get much attention though. The wreckage that was America will take the attention and bubbles will take the bulk of the blame.

OPEC is cutting production so I doubt that'll happen. Whatever they cut production by in order to stabilize prices will be available later, not to mention that a short-fall in supply at some later date will simply lead to the higher prices that made some projects attractive in the first place. In short, a reduction in demand can only stretch the plateau/decline out farther, not induce greater declines. That said, over the next decade or so I'm pretty sure that demand, not supply, will drive prices in either direction, since that's where the greatest changes can be made.

[yesplease]

Every oil price spike in history has triggered a global recession:

1973: Arab oil embargo oil price spike: few years later - GLOBAL RECESSION
1979: Iranian revolution oil price spike: few years later - GLOBAL RECESSION
1990: Gulf War oil price spike: few years later - GLOBAL RECESSION
2006: Peak oil price spike: few years later - GLOBAL RECESSION

Lets see...

We saw prices (in 2006 dollars) jump from ~$10 to ~$40 around 1973, and world GDP increased by ~50% in the folowing years, not exactly a global recession. After the Iranian revolution prices spiked even higher to ~$65, and we did have something of global slowdown, w/ world GDP flat for ~6-7 years, which definitely isn't growth, but isn't a global recession either. In 1990, prices went to ~$30 from ~$20, and we saw global GDP increase by ~20% over the next few years, certainly not a recession. Who knows what'll happen in the future, and while the R word seems to be te big deal in the G8 especially wrt equity markets, it may not translate into a global recession. So.. In short, during your view of a recession, we've had 50% global GDP growth, flat global GDP growth, and 20% global GDP growth. The facts don't back up your statements.

It's no coincidence. Peak oil is the hidden cause of our crisis - it burst the bubble of the pyramid scheme that developed since around 1980, a bubble that we had to develop because peak oil per capita meant that proper economic growth became more difficult, so we resorted to not so real ways to keep the illusion of our economy growing.

So we had peak oil burst a bubble in 1980, and then oil production continued to increase, past peak?

The bubble was only possible with cheap and reasonably plentiful oil, so when this ended inflation rose, triggering interest rate hikes, combined with cost of living increasing (gasoline, food etc - peak oil triggered) made it more difficult for sub-prime mortage owners to pay - setting off a cascade of other events leading to the current financial crisis. Something like that.

Ah yes, w/ the average driver going ~12,000 miles/year, getting ~17mpg, and having to pay ~$700-1400 more per year due to higher oil prices, oil must be the reason why we've seen all this toxic equity. Having subprime and ARM borrowers pay anywhere from a few thousand to ten thousand plus per year more than what they did at the start of their loans couldn't be what caused this downturn in the markets. And it's not like we would see people running to commodities in the hope that they can avoid losses, because then we would be seeing a significant drop in oil prices... Oh, wait, nvm.

[threadbear]

You sound like a bunch of Jehovah's Witnesses. "Good evening, Ma'am, Would you like a copy of the Oil Derrick?"

Oil does relate to the present catastrophe, though. Gotta say. The Saudis took one look at the future of the banking system and refused to continue recycling their dollars back into the American financial system.