[Graeme]

'The great growth industry of the 21st century'

On a conference call Wednesday, I asked Lester R. Brown, president of the Earth Policy Institute, whether the recent financial meltdown would effect the burgeoning solar, wind, and geothermal industries. He responded that while investment of all kinds will be more difficult, a renewable energy jobs program could provide the same kind of stimulus that the Works Projects Administration did in the 1930s if we slip into a deep recession or even a depression. But beyond that, it seems clear from his view of the current energy scene, that renewable energy will be "The great growth industry of the 21st century," as he put it, even out-performing the information revolution of the 1990s.

Brown thinks that we are moving toward a society that is largely powered by green electricity. In fact, he thinks that transportation can be powered primarily from green electricity as well via plug-in hybrids, high-speed intercity trains, and light rail. He pointed out that while the 20th century mainly saw the globalization of energy, particularly in the case of oil, the 21st century will see the localization of energy in the form of electricity generated from local wind, solar, and geothermal sources.

grist

[mos6507]

I wonder how many Plan B revisions he'll publish before he gives up. How many of his recommendations have actually been adopted?

[mark]

Reading this quote I'm reminded of a comment by Nicholas Taleb, "...what if this is only the beginning." He was talking with a reporter babe with no clue what he was saying.

I believe that the current financial meltdown is the canary in the coal mine. Reality is coming face to face with the illusion that we all call "modern life." And we'll fight to maintain our illusions. However, one by one they'll get smacked down 'till the only one standing is Reality. That will look like a completely different world.

[eastbay]

What he's kinda suggesting is that oil and natgas will get really, really expensive in a fairly short period of time. So expensive that all of the assorted and often costly alternatives will start to make economic sense.

Just like we've all been trying to tell 'them' all along!

[Graeme]

You can read a review of his latest book here. This includes a link to a free download of this book. The author (and reviewer) explains why he has made 3 revisions.

Brown is impassioned and convincing when talking about the world's ills and what he considers the four great goals to restoring civilization's equilibrium: stabilizing climate (he believes the magic number to cut greenhouse gas emissions is 80 percent by 2020), stabilizing population, eradicating poverty and restoring the world's damaged ecosystems. These four goals are interdependent, Brown says - failure to reach one means the others are also at risk.

In terms of energy (linked to climate), some of his recommendations are being adopted, e.g. this thread. But also this:

30-Fold Increase in Solar Power Possible by 2016, If Solar Industry and Utilities Collaborate to Make it Happen

One of the renewable energy policy developments to come out of Solar Power International comes in the form of the Solar Electric Power Association laying down a gauntlet in front of US electric utilities. The industry trade group has outlined four policy guidelines which it says will allow the nation to “see an increase in solar capacity of more than thirty fold between 2009 and 2016. This is approximately three times the estimated amount of generation predicted to come online as a result of existing renewable portfolio standards and policies in states with existing solar carve outs."

The specific recommendations to achieve this goal are as follows:

treehugger

[TreebeardsUncle]

Well, central to the phony world of the twentieth century in the USA, the hideous metasticizing cancer of suburban sprawl was credit and cheap oil. Government policy and industry have collaborated to make housing artificially expensive and automobile transport artificially cheap. Together with excessive leveraging and incessant advertisting this profiligate surreal landscape and modus operandi have proliferated. Expect, reality to achieve resurgance over the next 3 generations. Alt fuels are not going to cut it.
g

[ohanian]

The greatest growth industries of the 21st century is HOPE.

Whoever can sell hope to the highest number of consumer will make a killing.

Solar power, Nuclear power, what-not power.

people are hungry for dirt cheap power (like oil used to be).

[seldom_seen]

What about a green war? Why isn't anyone talking about that?

Biodegradable ammunition. Weapons constructed from recycled metals. Hybrid eco-friendly tanks and troop transports that run on biofuels. Coffins made from the wood of fair-trade sustainable forestry?

The unemployed could be put to work in the green army. Many would die fighting meaningless wars in far away lands. This would reduce unemployment statistics and restore confidence in the Government.

Heh...Seriously though, I like L. Brown. When some archaeologist is sifting through the rubble of our civilization a hundred years from now...they'll find some of Lester's writing and say "Well at least some of them didn't have their head completely rammed up their own butt."

[ROCKMAN]

Not that I think Mr. Brown's concepts aren't valid. But like so many "possibilities" the financing side of the equation is missing. IMO, as long as the gov't doesn't force a long term pricing platform (such as a mandatory minimum cost via increased motor fuel taxes) the investment community will not commit significant sums to such efforts. As an example:

The Government of Abu Dhabi has stepped in to help to fund the world’s biggest offshore wind farm in the Thames Estuary after the withdrawal of Royal Dutch Shell from the project. Masdar, a $15 billion (£9 billion) clean-energy investment fund controlled by the Gulf state, said yesterday that it would buy a 20 per cent stake in the London Array project from E.ON, the German energy giant.

Of course, at the moment I will be holding my breath waiting for our new President to announce his first act in office: raising the Fed gasoline tax.

[lorenzo]

According to the UN, bioenergy is the great growth industry of the 21st century.

As usual, Brown fails to mention the important issues, and focuses on marginal issues instead. It's really one of the guy's recurring problems.

[mos6507]

I have a copy of Plan B and it's good to know what is technically possible, but the rubber never meets the road. It's people like T Boone Pickens who actually have the resources to start some of these macro projects, not authors.

[dohboi]

But authors can sometime influence those with financial resources to make their ideas real. I believe it was Amory Lovins who first promoted the idea of hybrid vehicles. Obviously he didn't have a factory to make them, but those who did eventually listened. (Not that hybrids are any kind of long term solution.)

IMHO, Plan C is a bit closer to an approach that acknowledges the depth of the hole we're in.

[mos6507]

IMHO, Plan C is a bit closer to an approach that acknowledges the depth of the hole we're in.

I'm going to have to buy that book. You know, a couple years ago I was totally in a techno-fix mindset but now I think the only adaptation that will work will be from the bottom up, not top down. A bottom's up approach doesn't require trillions of dollars of infrastructure and it can start today, individual by individual.

To me, the change in car buying habits and driving patterns and how that has helped moderate gas prices is proof positive that if enough people change their behavior, it can help blunt peak oil. Even if not a single technofix is instituted, conservation and efficiency can really buy us a lot of time before we really start to feel the drop in standard of living.

[Starvid]

I have a copy of Plan B and it's good to know what is technically possible, but the rubber never meets the road. It's people like T Boone Pickens who actually have the resources to start some of these macro projects, not authors.

Hear, hear.

[Graeme]

Lester Brown is informing us about what is actually happening, and projecting into near future the current trends:

Renewable Energy Economy 101: Lester Brown Updates Us On the Story So Far

In case you’re new to the “new energy economy” debate—in short, figuring out how to transition the entire energy infrastructure of the world away from fossil fuels and towards renewable energy—and want as about brief a summary as could be created of the progress made in the last year as well as some of the challenges ahead, this one’s for you.

treehugger

[dohboi]

mos, I still occassionally get excited about some techno-fix--I guess it's just deeply engrained in me. But I agree that bottom up is the way to go, generally. The thing that catches me up is the Jeavon's Paradox stuff, where the more one group conserves, the more another group consumes because the conservers have helped lower the price of the consumable.

That pattern seems to call out for more broadly coordinated action. But I still think that action will come from conservers being outraged that the others are acting so baldly against the longer term interest of the whole.

Sorry if that got a bit abstract. Good comments all around.