[JudgieReloaded]

I'd like to quickly begin by clarifying that I am the Judgie who used to post on here, forgot his password and for some reason, the Lost Password function didn't work and still doesn't work for my other email address. This account is tied to my university email so please don't spam! (not that you do anyway

Insight on SBS tonight had a very interesting forum on the global financial crisis and what it means for Australia, with guests including two US financial experts and the Australian Minister for finance via satelite link. The website for Insight is here and you can view the program via streaming from it, as well as read the 71+ and gorwing comments from the members of the Australian public who were able to break themselves away from "Home and Away" and "Renovation Blitz" long enough to watch.

http://news.sbs.com.au/insight/episode/ ... 48#yoursay

I'm particularly interested in the fact that Peter Schiff (US financial guy) believes China can decouple from the US and and move it's economy from export to import in a year, with it;'s population buying everything they make, instead of the US consumer (Yves countering with the fact that such a change takes a generation or two, it doesn't happen in a year). My father accepted this hook, line and sinker, not realising or understanding that demographically, the majority of Chinese citizens simply can't afford this, and I doubt that they could even with their credit freed from supporting the US and in use in their own country?

View the episode, read the comments, and does anyone have an opinion on the above paragraph?

Cheers all, i'm surpised it took an intellectual tv show of all things to bring me back.

Mike

[JudgieReloaded]

As an addition, while watching the episode you'll find the perfect example of the common Gen Y, whom know nothing but the current system, have no problem with maxing out their credit cards and running up debt, and don't understand what a recession is, let alone what it means, especially for them.

Meet Siobahn

[Micki]

Sorry haven't checked the link yet but will venture to comment on it anyway.
1 year timeframe sounds very aggressive. But generation sounds in this case as a way too long timeframe.
It is not about working their way up to an industrialized standard, it is about strengthening Yuan so that all imports become signficantly cheaper.
If they can get Yuan to double against US$, means oil, imported food, commodities etc will be imported cheaper.

Assuming that US$ would be dropping, prices would rise in US$ terms but consumption in USA would significantly drop. So possibly there is some offset.

What is very realistic that if China intends to head down this path, and I see no reason why not (except that consumerism is inheritly bad etc), they could very well take the first steps towards this change now or next year.
I think a lot depends on what they have planned for their $2Trillion in USD reserves as a drop in USD would also result in loss of purchasing capacity of these reserves.
If they have been smart, they have locked in long term supply contracts so that if USD drops the price is locked in.