[TonyPrep]

From the 18th of October edition: Editorial: Time to banish the god of growth

IMAGINE an industry that runs out of raw materials. Companies go bust, workers are laid off, families suffer and associated organisations are thrown into turmoil. Eventually governments are forced to take drastic action. Welcome to global banking, brought to its knees by the interruption of its lifeblood - the flow of cash.
In this case we seem to have been fortunate. In the nick of time, governments released reserves that should with luck get cash circulating again. But what if they hadn't been there? There are no reserves of fish, tropical hardwoods, fresh water or metals such as indium, so what are we going to do when supplies of these vital materials dry up? We live on a planet with finite resources - that's no surprise to anyone - so why do we have an economic system in which all that matters is growth (see "Why our economy is killing the planet and what we can do about it")? More growth means using more resources.

When the human population was counted in millions and resources were sparse, people could simply move to pastures new. But with 9 billion people expected around 2050, moving on is not an option. As politicians reconstruct the global economy, they should take heed. If we are to leave any kind of planet to our children we need an economic system that lets us live within our means.

[MrMambo]

I read that issue and was impressed. This was the best discussion on the crisis and the way out of it I have read in any magazine.

I think a lot of people understand that restarting finance won't do the trick this time. Getting people to start shopping and to start building SUV's and McMansions is not going to be a functional solution to the grave problems we are in.

The most interesting of the contributions to the issue was Andrew Simms fundamental challenge to the logic of applying "trickle down" from economic growth as general problem solver for such things as powerty.

[mos6507]

Leave it to a magazine for intellectuals to get it. The unwashed masses who actually influence public policy will never read this.

[galacticsurfer]

Paradim changes always start with eggheads, Darwin, Einstein, etc,. were all laughed at with say a picture of Darwin as an ape or limericks about relativity:

"There once was a lady named bright
who traveled much faster than light
she went out one day
in a relative way
and came back the previous night"

So when the people finally "get it" the popular culture will transmit theidea fairly simply.

[frankthetank]

My 2 reasons for the stock market were the end of growth (declining oil/no growth) and baby boomers retiring (pulling money OUT of 401ks)... Now we have this whole ordeal killing it earlier then i expected.

Thanks for the article. Good read.

[Narz]

Great article Tony. I reposted it around.

[Sys1]

There's nothing new to us in this article, I knew that since I was around 14 years old.

[TonyPrep]

There's nothing new to us in this article, I knew that since I was around 14 years old.

Of course there's nothing new in the articles, after all, growth is unsustainable. But getting people to understand that seems to be the hardest thing in the world. That a serious and popular science magazine is highlighting the obvious should be most welcome. I realise it will have no impact by itself but perhaps it will seed the realisation that we live on a finite planet.

Although I've actually argued with people who think resources are infinite (through infinite substitution), most people who think growth can go on forever either blank out the finite aspect or choose to think humans will (i.e. 100% certain to) utilise off-world resources in time. If this special report can reduce the closet cornucopians to just that last possibility, then it will have done us a service.

[MrBill]

Production = turning inputs into outputs

Infinite growth = production X time itself.

No system can sustain itself without new inputs. Stop growing and you die.

Thanks eggheads!

Now go tell the unwashed masses that its nothing but diminishing returns from here to eternity (or die-off whichever comes first).

Goofballs! ; - ))

[Keith_McClary]

When the human population was counted in millions and resources were sparse, people could simply move to pastures new.

Mom: Take your umbrella.

Kid: Nah, if it rains I'll go under a tree.

Mom: But what if the tree gets soaked through?

Kid: I'll run to another tree.

[cube]

[Quinny]

Are you summarising the arguments or are these your comments?

Production = turning inputs into outputs
Infinite growth = production X time itself.
No system can sustain itself without new inputs. Stop growing and you die.
Thanks eggheads!
Now go tell the unwashed masses that its nothing but diminishing returns from here to eternity (or die-off whichever comes first).
Goofballs! ; - ))

[yesplease]

No system can sustain itself without new inputs. Stop growing and you die. Thanks eggheads!

I'm still waiting for an editorial on sustainability of the solar system as we know it. Sure, we've got a billion years, give or take, but someone needs to address the sun's role in this lack of sustainability. TEOTSSAWKI

[yesplease]

Although I've actually argued with people who think resources are infinite (through infinite substitution)

Like who?

[TonyPrep]

Although I've actually argued with people who think resources are infinite (through infinite substitution)

Like who?

A guy on a Yahoo group. Pretty smart guy but with complete faith in his dreams. A couple of others come close to that, as does JD here.
Why did you raise the sustainability of the solar system; are you the infinite resources guy?

[Rod_Cloutier]

Unfortunately, were already so far gone as a civilization, so far over the actual carrying capacity of the planet, that the end of growth, and the instalment of some kind of rational planning resource use would push us over the resource cliff.

Companies, where small owner operators, or giant corporate conglomerates, hire employee's to create growth in their profits. If growth in profits is not allowed then the demand for labour= 0. When I wrap my mind around this it means that if you're not self employed or a farmer your dead. Conversly when you get 20-40% mass unemployment you get social revolution- communism, extremisim, crime waves and other problems en mass.

The wealthy and powerful know this well, so- enviroment be dammed they are going to keep their course even at the expense of the ruination of the planet and its eco-systems.

I really believe now that nothing constructive can really occur until after a major world wide collapse of the global economy has occured, and the resultant population die-off puts the world back in-sync with actual resource flows.

The longer the existing system keeps chugging along the harsher and the more severe the consequences of the coming collapse will be. The longer the 'business as usual' ideology continues-the longer the duration and scale of the collapse will be.

[venky]

I posed this question before: Can we have a free market system, if growth ends?

[cube]

I posed this question before: Can we have a free market system, if growth ends?

of course! The free-market does not dictate infinite growth. People who say otherwise are simply just inventing their own definitions.
//
however..... Now if you want to talk about how government works today then it's my observation that MOST definitely yes the gov. has a bad habit of trying to encourage infinite growth. They want you to buy more build more....more more more!

For example if you buy a house or open up a new business you get rewarded with generous tax deductions and unsustainable cheap credit to do so . But if you choose to do nothing with your money then you get punished because inflation will eat away at the value of your savings. See what I mean? The gov. does not want you to sit still and keep your consumption level constant. They want you to consume more.

[nobodypanic]

I posed this question before: Can we have a free market system, if growth ends?

of course! The free-market does not dictate infinite growth.

really? how does that work?

[cube]

...really? how does that work?

Free market