As usual, Heinberg has provided us with a very thoughtful and impressively holisitic analysis of the scope of the problem and potential mitigation strategies. Two sections I found particularly interesting, and IMO warrant discussion:
3. Carbon and energy policy
Worldwide, there has already been much discussion of, and some experimentation with, policies to discourage fossil fuel use and encourage the transition to renewable energy sources. More exploration of such policy options is needed.
The carbon Cap-and-Trade scheme that was deployed in the European Union, in which fossil fuel companies were automatically awarded carbon credits, has tended merely to push high-polluting jobs to poorer nations, while enriching bankers with trading commissions and rewarding established polluters.
The auctioning of all carbon credits, so that existing polluters must buy them, would be a clear improvement on that system. Cap-and-Dividend or Cap-and-Share programs would go further still by promoting social equity, with the proceeds from carbon credit auctions going directly to the public to offset the impact of rising energy costs.
...here's a few other interesting ideas...
However, all such systems assume a market for fossil fuels in which severe resource scarcity plays little or no role. In fact, scarcity may partially undermine carbon trade, share, or dividend systems (no oil company would need to buy carbon credits if the supply of oil is shrinking as fast as yearly caps would otherwise mandate), while resulting in extreme price volatility that would overwhelm both individual consumers and entire industries. Under a carbon tax system, falling oil production would translate to falling government tax revenues.
A policy solution to the depletion-led scarcity dilemma might be a fuel quota rationing system administered so that the total number of quotas issued declines annually. Such a system, called Tradable Energy Quotas (TEQs), is being studied in Britain. In it, quotas of carbon or specific fossil fuels (e.g., gasoline) would be issued electronically to all adults yearly, with the information stored on a magnetic card swiped at the point of fuel purchase. Each year the total quantity of quotas would be reduced to conform either with carbon reduction targets or declining fuel availability. Consumers could sell extra quotas or purchase them as needed, with the market price reflecting aggregate supply and demand. Each consumer would thus have an immediate interest in conserving fuel. Allowances could be made for low-income citizens with temporary need for more quotas as they get rid of older cars and insulate homes.
Policy tools to directly support the deployment of renewable energy sources, such as Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) and Feed-in Tariffs, should also be reviewed for effectiveness, comparing existing case studies. In general, Feed-in Tariffs, in which government guarantees a price for electricity generated from renewable sources, appear to succeed in harnessing entrepreneurial zeal to the energy transition.
....the topic of education is something that I have studied somewhat over the years - and it has led to much frustration with my discussions with various educators - and I am glad that Heinberg recognizes that we need a complete revolution of our education system and the skills/values that are taught from grade school thru graduate school...
4. Education
The energy transition will result in the creation of many millions of new jobs and careers. While President-elect Obama called for the creation of five million green-collar jobs, the energy transition will in fact demand something on the order of a ten-fold increase in that goal. However, these new jobs and careers will require skill sets largely different from those currently being imparted by our educational system. {...that is an understatement...}
Because they are inexpensive, numerous, and widely dispersed, community colleges could play a central role in preparing workers for new opportunities in sustainable food production, renewable energy installation, grid rebuilding, rail expansion, public transport construction, and home energy retrofitting. {Aside from the complex financial and carbon trading issues, - the lack of a formal education program in the US and elsewhere that is tailor to impart this valauble training on all sectors of the working community: low, moderate, and highly skilled individuals - is one of key barriers to making the necessary transition...}
In order for community colleges to fill this new role, teacher training and curriculum development on a grand scale will be needed, ideally organized and coordinated at the national level through the Department of Education. {That is an excellent idea, and a serious policy issues that needs to be addressed}
This reorientation of curriculum should begin with gardening programs in all grade schools and increased course emphasis on topics related to energy and conservation.
...highly recommended reading...
