Just thought I'd stop by and see what the doomer crowd had to say about the financial crisis. Kinda like the Peter Schiff, Jim Rogers, J.H. Kunstler, etc. first phase tsunami analogy in another thread where the sea first recedes and then returns with fury. Makes intuitive sense to me in that there is a de-leveraging of commodities by hedge funds and and margin calls on various individual accounts forcing people to sell good assets (for example apple computer with growing market share and something like 20 bucks in cash for each share).
Then there is IMHO the recklessly loose monetary policy such as the economic stimulus checks for $600 bucks for tax payers, who made less than $75,000 on their tax returns in 2007. Now there is talk of another economic stimulus, which to me is akin to giving a chronic alcoholic, yet another tequila shot. I personally think the billions spent trying to prop up consumer spending would in the long run be better "invested" if that money was put into infrastructure such as rail systems, alternative energy and engineering or scientific education (in other words stuff that has long term pay back that could actually grow the economy).
Yup I'm pretty sure between people panicking and selling off commodities and equity to raise cash, the recklessly government spending programs to prop up consumers and ever growing global populations who want to live the america consumer dream, that eventually this means some kind of economic inflation (cause the government is digging the credit hole ever deeper for consumer goods that offers no pay back).
For years I knew it was inevitable that the economy was going somehow crash and mess things up kinda like when $hit hitting the fan, because the system was unsustainable.
Personally I think of the financial crisis as akin to being a forest fire. In San Diego where I live, we have had two big fire storms the past few years (in 2003 and 2007). Basically the firestorms here in Southern California along with big forest fires like the Yellowstone National Park forest fires of 1988 were inevitable because for a number of years the under brush and first was not allowed to burn off naturally. So when the fire storms hit areas with lots of dead wood that had accumulated, people were taken aback by the size of the conflagrations.
IMHO pretty much the same thing is happening in the economy right now in that people who accumulated lots of credit and didn't thin it out bad credit around their personal spaces are getting burned alive. Perhaps this financial crisis should be thought of as giving people who didn't use credit wisely and are now getting burned, as a recieving a collective darwin award.
Personally I'm taking the long view, there will be survivors of this financial crisis, just as there will be survivors after the inevitable peaking of oil production. Just like people all thrown together in a forest fire we all will suffer to some degree. But depending upon if one was wise and cleared dead wood away from ones personal space, stocked away some provisions when times were good and not loosing ones cool resolve when the flames came roaring your way, is the only sure fire way (pardon the pun) to greatly decrease the chances of serious or catastrophic damage.
FYI this analogy of clearing dead wood away from ones personal space, stocking away provisions when times were good and not loosing ones cool when the flames came roaring your way, should in no way be considered an endorsement for "doomers" to head for the hills because of the inevitable peaking of oil production!
So anyone know how to go about a group nomination of darwin award? Figure if Al Gore and the IPCC can get a collective nobel, why can't there be a collective darwin award for killing the global economic system with lots of bad "get rich quick" shenanigans.