[neocone]

1) LA freeways are jammed as ever

2) Stores in SoCal are packed with shoppers... lines at the cashier extend for half the store length on some week-ends

3) SUVs sell like hot cakes as I see 1/5 car with brand new license plates (now 6C... series) and shiny finish. And 2/3 of them are SUVs... in fact pretty much always luxury SUVs. Just today I saw not one but five brand new Navigators at 50k+ retail in less than 20 min on my commute to work

4) I work by the airport and it is PACKED. The line of cars getting into Sepulveda is now a mile long from the 105 on most days. Good thing I ride a motorcycle otherwise I would stay there forever. Every night I see tens of planes lining up and count one taking off every few minutes. When I go outside and I am liike 2-3 miles away from the runways the sound is deafening and permanent.

This whole sky is falling theory is BS. Oil will be $20 a barrel (and foerever) again... who cares if the upper class of the world (top 5% living in industrialized nations) shrink by half to only consume 40 mpd? It will be numerous enough to populate countless cities like LA.

Think one second about BASIC stats:

Oil production drops to 40 mpd and even 20 mpd => Upper class drops 50 or 75% but still represents hundreds of millions

Meanwhile the "poor" who consume almost no oil grow by a few % as they add those who cannot have the "rich" lifestyle anymore but who represented a fraction of humanity to begin with.

The rest who are still rich go from a few % of humanity to a fraction less... big deal.

C'est la vie.

[Jotapay]

Whew! Thanks for that. Really, we owe you one. Now, can you get rid of a scorching case of herpes too?

The line of cars getting into Sepulveda is now a mile long from the 105 on most days.

Haha, you said "sepulveda"! You better cover that up in public!

[Maddog78]

That's awesome.

Let the good times roll again.

[DaleFromCalgary]

It depends where you live, of course. God help you if you are a realtor in Florida.

Calgary is still doing well. Housing starts are down because of overbuilding, and newly-completed houses take six months to sell unless the price is cut drastically. New oilsands and conventional drilling projects are being postponed as companies hoard cash and struggle to find lines of credit. Otherwise the stores are as busy as ever, and the traffic jams are still bad. No visible decline in SUVs but this could be a delayed effect, since it doesn't pay to trade them in.

I have had to do some banking business in arranging an estate, and it still requires a week's notice to set up an appointment with a customer advisor due to staff shortages. And not just one bank, either.

I use the 7-Eleven stores in Calgary as an index to economic health. They still have signs up advertising for staff at $11/hr plus benefits plus retention bonus.

[Sys1]

neocone :Everytime I check my fridge's temperature, it confirms me that global warming is an hoax.

[Arsenal]

neocone :Everytime I check my fridge's temperature, it confirms me that global warming is an hoax.

HAHAHAHA Great member quote.

[DomusAlbion]

+1 to Sys1.

Neocone, from your rather isolated position you probably don't even know that there is a severe winter storm taking place in South Dakota. I mean, you can't see it from Lalaland, right, so it must not exist.

Those who watch all things economic would differ with your assessment. Like this news article states: Here

[Eli]

Worst jobs report in 25 years and the economy is doing great! yeah whatever

[neocone]

Sys1: Any connection between your reality and mine is purely coincidental.

[Jellric]

Did you really think it would happen overnight?

In an economy as complex as ours these things take time to work their way through the economy. Just like Mr. Bernankes funny money at the magic printing press.

[cube]

neocone :Everytime I check my fridge's temperature, it confirms me that global warming is an hoax.

to continue the laughs.

I just ate really good at a buffet, there is no global food crisis.

[Eli]

I think people are still spending in California but they are putting it all on credit cards. What you don't see is that they are quickly maxing them out and are about to be swamped by their own debt.

[DaleFromCalgary]

Setting aside boomtown areas such as Calgary, it seems that non-petroleum areas still have pockets of temporary affluence. It won't last for many such places.

Oil is now at $60, stock markets keep dropping,and we still have a way to go until it bottoms out. Oil is down so low because demand destruction is running ahead of declining production, leading to a temporary glut. The question is how long is "temporary"? If we get a severe winter, prices will obviously spike, but the long term prices could continue falling through 2009 as the world economy keeps slumping and slumping.

There are still a few economists who babble about how the USA "may" be going into a recession, sticking to the rigid and incorrect idea that the definition of a recession is two declining quarters. Most people would agree that the recession has been underway since 2008 spring.

[seahorse]

Please, someone, forward that post to Obama, Bernanke and Paulson before they raise our taxes for no reason.

[alokin]

OK we have friends "owning" two nice new cars, both not paid for. What you see neocone are the two new posh cars, what you don't see is their bank account and their depth. Don't you understand is that exactly what you look at is dangerous, brought us to the world wide economic crisis and that those people together with their gov. will draw us further down? Some more month and they are broke and then you read all this "tragic" stories about those "poor" broken people.
And it's not that they weren't told.

[neocone]

There are still a few economists who babble about how the USA "may" be going into a recession, sticking to the rigid and incorrect idea that the definition of a recession is two declining quarters. Most people would agree that the recession has been underway since 2008 spring.

Actually most of the fears now are related to a recession being possible i.e dismal growth vs. predicted growth.

For example it is now predicted world economic growth will be 2.2% down from 3%.

Maybe there will be 2 quarters of slight economic slowdown but everything should resume given the plunging oil prices.

[emersonbiggins]

As long as we are measuring economic growth in terms of GDP, a figure machinated beyond all belief, then we will likely see NO recession, statistically speaking.

Reality, however, will prove otherwise.

[neocone]

Well.. relative consumption of oil to produced oil will always be 100% so there will be all the economic activity that there can be.

Doesn't mean a Mad Max world and the end of civilization. To the contrary we are back on the Moon (maybe extracting Helium 3 for a thermonuclear reactor) in 2020 and a 1 mile high skyscrapper is slated to be finished soon.

[Tyler_JC]

There are still a few economists who babble about how the USA "may" be going into a recession, sticking to the rigid and incorrect idea that the definition of a recession is two declining quarters. Most people would agree that the recession has been underway since 2008 spring.

Actually most of the fears now are related to a recession being possible i.e dismal growth vs. predicted growth.
For example it is now predicted world economic growth will be 2.2% down from 3%.
Maybe there will be 2 quarters of slight economic slowdown but everything should resume given the plunging oil prices.

Chart (large)

Converted Url to hyperlink. -FL

[Duende]

neocone wrote:

...and a 1 mile high skyscrapper is slated to be finished soon.

What the hell's a skyscrapper?