by patience » Tue 11 Nov 2008, 17:53:43
gnm,
That's what it looks like. Timing? Who knows? Roubini said the Hedgies pulling out money could tank the markets, and Cid Yama said he thought the "run" on Hedge Funds is the trigger event. Then, it's a matter of how long it takes for the tsunami to reach Treasury Bond Yields (starting up on the long end now), to the point that the US can't float enough loans to finance the Govt budget. Then, the Fed steps in and buys the Treasuries, and prints money to give to Uncle Sam. Dollar get to be worth less until it is worthless. Oil price (in dollars) goes parabolic, US economy goes to zero.
Let's hope NOT, but that's what I've been able to digest from all the money experts here and other places. Nobody can pin down a timeframe exactly, but a lot of people are talking about bond yields TODAY. We will dump our Treasury securities this week. Not much, but all we have. It's my belief that when US Treasuries curve goes nutzoid, the dollar is soon to follow it down the bowl.
Which would be the time to exit EVERYTHING PAPER, and go to hard commodities, right? Beans, bullets, beer, etc.
SOMEBODY, PLEASE, SHOW ME THAT I'M WRONG!!!
Local fix-it guy..