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How low will crude oil go?

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

How low will crude oil go?

Unread postby hydrocarbon » Tue 11 Nov 2008, 20:11:48

Lets see who can get close to the actual amount crude oil will be in six months time. The winner will receive via email a case of beer or a carton of cigs of his or her choice. Good luck

my quess is that it will be $ 48 usd
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Re: How low will crude oil go?

Unread postby AgentR » Tue 11 Nov 2008, 20:26:59

I will require French wine, preferably reds, for the wisdom of my predictions...

$40

Production starts to collapse here, while inherent desire to consume the stuff remains and growth is pushed by the continuous increase in population and consumption in India and China.

When desire to consume passes the desire to produce by a significant margin, there'll be a new spike that'll make this last one look like a speed bump.
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Re: How low will crude oil go?

Unread postby GoghGoner » Tue 11 Nov 2008, 23:23:09

It has to go back above 70.

From a recent article:

"Oil sands and gas shales in North America and deepwater projects do not work at $60 oil. The problems are oilfield service costs are too high and we need to change this for projects to go ahead,” Mr Simmons told Lloyd’s List at the Oil & Money Conference in London on Tuesday.
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Re: How low will crude oil go?

Unread postby AgentR » Tue 11 Nov 2008, 23:28:58

GoghGoner wrote:It has to go back above 70.


It'll go alot higher than that, but we're talking about where the next minimum price occurs before it starts back up.
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Re: How low will crude oil go?

Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Tue 11 Nov 2008, 23:43:28

I'm predicting that oil will become free.

That should happen right after Bernake cuts the fed rate target to negative 12%.

Seriously though, it's really hard to predict. The current drop is mostly about economic shuffling which has sent the dollar on a meteoric rise over the last three months. When that snaps back, we're going to be in for a very nasty surprise.
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Re: How low will crude oil go?

Unread postby eastbay » Tue 11 Nov 2008, 23:52:48

On May 11, 2009, NYMEX crude (would that be the June, '09 contract?) will be $130.00/bbl.

Not a penny less.
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Re: How low will crude oil go?

Unread postby jasonraymondson » Wed 12 Nov 2008, 00:59:33

$79.00
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Re: How low will crude oil go?

Unread postby lowem » Wed 12 Nov 2008, 01:42:10

42.

The answer to life, the universe and everything.

Sorry couldn't resist :lol:
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Re: How low will crude oil go?

Unread postby hironegro » Wed 12 Nov 2008, 19:43:20

20-22
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