[burn0gas]

I'm wondering how Canada will be affected due to the geographical proximity and other close ties to the US? ... despite its 'currently' DECREASING national debt - 1/3 of which has been paid off over the past 10years - and a load of natural resources.

What are some of your predictions on the situation for Canada?
Finance Minister Jim Flaherty says ""Canada goes into this economic slowdown in the best position of the major industrialized countries in the world ... so we are in a position to take various actions, we have lots of leeway to act."
Link

What should a Canadian do? Go CDN$, buy gold, load up on Canadian commodities/oil/gas, Canadian bank stocks, CDN govt bonds, go with foreign assets, etc?

As a Canadian I'm slightly confused about how all this will play out for Canadians, since we are on the same land mass as US, but still a different country with such close ties.

[gandolf]

I think you should get ready for three hundred million hungry americans knoking on your door and saying

"Sir! please may I have some more"

[Snowrunner]

I think you should get ready for three hundred million hungry americans knoking on your door and saying
"Sir! please may I have some more"

Unfortunately I think you're right

[strider3700]

assuming we aren't just taken over I've been watching gold for awhile now. Thanks to the plummet in the cdn dollar gold is still very close to it's recent highs even though it's down a few hundred in US dollars. So basically gold has turned out to be a great safe haven so long as you're not american.

[vtsnowedin]

After the war the boundries of New Canada will revert to what they were in 1760 with the seat of government in Cleveland. the cost of guarding the appalachian border, keeping the remainant Yankees on the coast will be high but worth it. Some shipments of grain out of the port of New new orleans are being made to europe but only on a cash/barter basis.

[uNkNowN ElEmEnt]

According to the stats from 2005 that someone posted recetly Canada is still 22 highest in debt/GDP. The US is 29th or something. So what you posted may sound good but we still seem to be deeply in the crapper even though it looks like we are sitting by watching them implode.

We are too strongly tied to the US, as they go so will we follow. My $2.00 (inflation adjusted)

[uNkNowN ElEmEnt]

As if on cue:

Canada in recession, heading for deficit: OECD
PARIS - Canada is now in a recession that will likely lead to a federal deficit, but the plunge into the red "is not alarming" because Canada's relatively strong banking sector and healthy government finances leave the country in decent shape to manage the global financial crisis, according to a major report released Tuesday.

Canada's economy is shrinking because of its close ties to the U.S. as well as its vulnerability to sliding world commodity prices, said Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, chief economist for the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

"In our scenario, Canada is severely affected by these two factors and therefore we have a very significant recession for the case of Canada, which mainly we've projected to have started already in the fourth quarter of this year, and going on for the next two quarters until mid-2009," he told a news conference in Paris after presenting the OECD's latest economic outlook.

link

[Nickel]

It's not really news that we're in a recession. It's only news that someone went to the trouble to declare it official; someone had to, sooner or later.

From what I've heard, Ottawa is anticipating a $3.9 billion deficit for 2009. I really won't mind if they can manage to hold it to that; given that our economy is over a $1 trillion a year now, and our national debt is in the $400 billion+ range, that's not all that alarming. I think Ottawa, and all the provinces and territories, ought to be looking at doing some deficit spending, but it must be very strategic. Programs guaranteed to keep people working, and give us something to show for it in the end. A good time for improvements to the infrastructure. Job creation schemes at a moment like this are a good idea... they keep people in work, paying taxes, keeping homes (no defaults), buying products -- which in turn keeps other people in work. It's a bottom-up solution, not one of those "trickle-down" pay-the-rich-first deals that always dry up long before the people at the bottom see a drop of rain.

I'm not concerned about people in the States suddenly showing up here, and for a variety of reasons. First and foremost, they're almost entirely ignorant of this country, and it will never occur to the vast majority of them that there are any alternatives in the world; the US is it, and it's all they know. For once, that works in our favour. Secondly, they can't just pull up stakes and move here anymore than we ever could there. It's a long process that takes at least a year, often longer. The handful that do make it are the bright, educated, progressive ones who see something in Canada that, for the moment, they don't have in the States, which has been rather reactionary and backward for the past generation or so (just look at California, of all places, voting to nix gay marriage). So the few we get are, generally speaking, the best of the bunch anyway. The others barely know we exist, and wouldn't move here on a bet, which suits me just fine.

[DomusAlbion]

Canadians, prepare to be assimilated. Resistance is futile.

Sorry, I couldn't resist.

[ReverseEngineer]

Hosers should stock up on Moosehead and Doughnuts. Wayne Gretzky for PM! Cu-roo-cu-koo mess, eh? Buy stock in Molsons!

Reverse Engineer

[Nickel]

Hosers should stock up on Moosehead and Doughnuts.

Eat donuts and drink beer while Yanks eat guns and drink blood? Okey doke.

Oh, sorry, I mean, "Okay, eh?"

[Snowrunner]

I'm not concerned about people in the States suddenly showing up here, and for a variety of reasons. First and foremost, they're almost entirely ignorant of this country, and it will never occur to the vast majority of them that there are any alternatives in the world;

So your plan is that of a buddy of mine? Put up signs: "Welcome to Mexico"?

the US is it, and it's all they know. For once, that works in our favour. Secondly, they can't just pull up stakes and move here anymore than we ever could there. It's a long process that takes at least a year, often longer. The handful that do make it are the bright, educated, progressive ones who see something in Canada that, for the moment, they don't have in the States, which has been rather reactionary and backward for the past generation or so (just look at California, of all places, voting to nix gay marriage). So the few we get are, generally speaking, the best of the bunch anyway. The others barely know we exist, and wouldn't move here on a bet, which suits me just fine.

You are assuming that the next mass migration is an "orderly" one where people actually care about paperwork.

There are already Mexicans (and south and central Americans) that completely bypass the US and go north into Canada, trust me, if there is a huge population shift north they won't apply for visas or anything similar, they will just feed into the shadow economy.

[Blacksmith]

We don't mind the Americans, but could you please keep the Easterners at home.

[burn0gas]

Thanks for the good comments/laughs.

btw - anyone know what Peter Schiff and EuroPacific are buying up on the TSX?

Personally, I've loaded up almost 20% of my portfolio with CEF.A (Central Fund of Canada - http://www.centralfund.com)

[Jester]

It's not really news that we're in a recession. It's only news that someone went to the trouble to declare it official; someone had to, sooner or later.
From what I've heard, Ottawa is anticipating a $3.9 billion deficit for 2009. I really won't mind if they can manage to hold it to that; given that our economy is over a $1 trillion a year now, and our national debt is in the $400 billion+ range, that's not all that alarming. I think Ottawa, and all the provinces and territories, ought to be looking at doing some deficit spending, but it must be very strategic. Programs guaranteed to keep people working, and give us something to show for it in the end. A good time for improvements to the infrastructure. Job creation schemes at a moment like this are a good idea... they keep people in work, paying taxes, keeping homes (no defaults), buying products -- which in turn keeps other people in work.

Keep in mind, the government estimate was around 3.9 in the 1st year and another 1-2 the next year. BUT, they said shortly after that, depending on how things go, it could be more like 12-14 billion... And that was followed up by an independent think tank's estimate (and they apparently have a better record of projecting the real budget than the government) was for around 20 billion in the first year and potentially another 30 billion in the next year...

As for how things are going? We are experiencing a slow down. Even here in BC where things have been booming pretty good, there are now some construction projects which had been started but now have run short of cash... In the past 2 months our unemployment rate has risen by almost a full percent (in the last 2 years it's only been fluctuating by .1 of a percent at a time in BC). So the change we've had is huge in comparison.

Oil sands projects being shelved means billions less put into the Canadian economy as well. In September, bankruptcies were up 28.4% over last year.

[Nickel]

There are already Mexicans (and south and central Americans) that completely bypass the US and go north into Canada, trust me,

Oh, I'm dubious about that. Having made it to the United States, where the jobs they're after are, where there are large Hispanic communities and support networks and educational facilities, and where there's an established culture, why would they take it upon themselves to cross the US and then brave yet another international frontier to get to Canada, where there are fewer jobs for them, and essentially no support for their culture or to help them get established (not to mention no place in the whole country that wouldn't be bloody cold for them... hell, it is for us)? I'm not saying it never happens, but the numbers can't be beyond the hundreds, or maybe a few thousand.

if there is a huge population shift north they won't apply for visas or anything similar, they will just feed into the shadow economy.

I'm not concerned about people from the States doing a Mexico on us because we're so much smaller. They would use up our reserves of jobs, accommodation, and goodwill a lot faster than Mexicans do, crossing into the US, which has a larger population and more wealth than the country they left. The dynamics aren't the same. Frankly, unless things get unimaginably dire, I think what we'll see is perhaps an increased interest in moving to Canada, and people with the skills, resources, and inclination to do so will begin arriving here in greater numbers. In other words, they'll trickle away and leave more and more of the US behind to stew ever deeper into "Jesusland".

[DaleFromCalgary]

"According to the stats from 2005 that someone posted recently Canada is still 22 highest in debt/GDP. The US is 29th or something."

If those were the CIA Factbook figures, they are misleading because the CIA doesn't calculate the American debt the same way as other countries. Canadian figures include provincial debt but American figures exclude off-the books items such as Social Security and other frauds.

As far as Canada being overrun by Americans, I well recall that when Shrub was first elected there were many Americans swearing they would move north. Not many did. The one thing that will discourage mass migration to Canada is that we have real winters. Remember that North Dakota is south of us.

Calgary is still booming but that is because of all the projects already underway. Many oilsands expansions are being postponed and new skyscrapers quietly shelved. We won't suffer like Ontario, but late 2009 and 2010 will be the test.

And what should Canadians do? I have $85,000 cash sitting in my chequing account (Deposit accounts in Alberta credit unions and the ATB are 100% guaranteed.) I have been buying private equity in a startup junior pete that pumps conventional oil, and have some mineral rights. Their income will decline with the price of oil but still pay better than term deposits. I also have a fair number of bonds in reliable companies. This is no time to be betting big on commodities.

[Starvid]

Canadians should be very careful, and constantly on the lookout for shithawks.

[Snowrunner]

Oh, I'm dubious about that. Having made it to the United States, where the jobs they're after are, where there are large Hispanic communities and support networks and educational facilities, and where there's an established culture, why would they take it upon themselves to cross the US and then brave yet another international frontier to get to Canada, where there are fewer jobs for them, and essentially no support for their culture or to help them get established (not to mention no place in the whole country that wouldn't be bloody cold for them... hell, it is for us)? I'm not saying it never happens, but the numbers can't be beyond the hundreds, or maybe a few thousand.

I didn't claim there were here by the millions, but they are "coming", and no, it's not fear mongering on my part.

Do a search through the CBC Website, they had a few blurps on this a while ago.

I'm not concerned about people from the States doing a Mexico on us because we're so much smaller. They would use up our reserves of jobs, accommodation, and goodwill a lot faster than Mexicans do, crossing into the US, which has a larger population and more wealth than the country they left.

The problem is that if the train moves people won't just stop because it's no longer there. People followed the "Gold Rush" long after it was all gone / claimed because they heard the rumor.

Besides, there are currently what? 30k+ people in Canada illegally (that's the Government guessing) with no clue where they are, do you really think that Canada had any chance to prevent tens or hundreds of thousands to move north?

The dynamics aren't the same. Frankly, unless things get unimaginably dire, I think what we'll see is perhaps an increased interest in moving to Canada, and people with the skills, resources, and inclination to do so will begin arriving here in greater numbers. In other words, they'll trickle away and leave more and more of the US behind to stew ever deeper into "Jesusland".

And that's not good idea. The moment the moderating forces are gone and the rest is at each others throat they will look for the cause of all their probably.

So, Mad Max scenario, you have the remaining US at each others throat and the little country of Canada sitting smug on top of them, what do you think will happen?

[Snowrunner]

As far as Canada being overrun by Americans, I well recall that when Shrub was first elected there were many Americans swearing they would move north. Not many did. The one thing that will discourage mass migration to Canada is that we have real winters. Remember that North Dakota is south of us.

Grmph, Vancouver and the Island don't have that luck (and yeah, I don't use quotes here because I do actually miss a cold winter).

Besides, desperation and all that... who knows. IF it happens it's not as if we could prevent it.

As for the GWB analogy.... The problem here is that the people who WANTED (or claimed to anyway) leave were going to do this in the legal sense and they actually had things to lose. My concern is that very few will have anything left to lose in the US soon.