Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Peak oil is over but present lows hurt: Jum'ah

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Peak oil is over but present lows hurt: Jum'ah

Unread postby Graeme » Wed 26 Nov 2008, 21:13:58

Peak oil is over but present lows hurt: Jum'ah

The world's largest oil producer Saudi Aramco on Wednesday said the time for astronomical crude prices was over but the present low levels too would not be good in the long run for finding and developing new reserves to ensure security of future energy supplies.

"The peak oil theory has been proven right. The era of peak oil is gone... for many NOCs (national oil companies) oil represents big revenues for development. Producers want enough money to build additional facilites after paying taxes, royalty and shareholders,'' Saudi Aramco president and CEO Abdallah S Jum'ah told a conclave of industry captains and experts organised by energy think-tank Great Organisations of the World.

Jum'ah said crude's fall has proven Saudi Arabia -- and Opec -- correct thatprices were being driven by market speculators and not due to surge in demand from emerging markets (such as China and India). "There was no shortage. Only politicians were saying it (prices rising on surging demand from emerging markets). We as businessmen and producers always said there's enough oil... Saudi Aramco always keeps 1-2 million barrels a day spare capacity.''


indiatimes
Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
User avatar
Graeme
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 13258
Joined: Fri 04 Mar 2005, 04:00:00
Location: New Zealand

Re: Peak oil is over but present lows hurt: Jum'ah

Unread postby bratticus » Wed 26 Nov 2008, 22:58:10

Graeme wrote:Peak oil is over but present lows hurt: Jum'ah

The world's largest oil producer Saudi Aramco on Wednesday said the time for astronomical crude prices was over but the present low levels too would not be good in the long run for finding and developing new reserves to ensure security of future energy supplies.

"The peak oil theory has been proven right. The era of peak oil is gone..'
The round Earth is over too. Back to the flat Earth.
User avatar
bratticus
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 2368
Joined: Thu 12 Jun 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Bratislava

Re: Peak oil is over but present lows hurt: Jum'ah

Unread postby bratticus » Wed 26 Nov 2008, 23:08:24

Graeme wrote:Peak oil is over but present lows hurt: Jum'ah

Saudi Aramco always keeps 1-2 million barrels a day spare capacity.''
I always keep 1-2 million barrels of oil in my bathtub.
User avatar
bratticus
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 2368
Joined: Thu 12 Jun 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Bratislava

Re: Peak oil is over but present lows hurt: Jum'ah

Unread postby shortonsense » Wed 26 Nov 2008, 23:22:20

bratticus wrote:
Graeme wrote:Peak oil is over but present lows hurt: Jum'ah


Well at least SOMEONE has gotten the basics of this figured out.
User avatar
shortonsense
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 3124
Joined: Sat 30 Aug 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Peak oil is over but present lows hurt: Jum'ah

Unread postby virgincrude » Thu 27 Nov 2008, 05:38:41

Saudi ARAMCO president and CEO says Peak Oil is over, and that the Peak Oil theory has been proven right.

That is a pretty damn amazing statement.

Saudi ARAMCO president admits Peak Oil.


That should be the headline.

Does it mean he's acknowledging Saudi has peaked?

Or is he mainly referring to the peak in cheaply available oil?

Anybody remember that joke about the guy who gets a guided tour of hell? In one room people are all head down in layers of shite.
In the next room, it looks okay, people are standing around in shite.
Then the devil comes along and yells: "okay everybody, coffee break's over, everybody back on your heads."

I think coffee break's over .......
User avatar
virgincrude
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 516
Joined: Thu 09 Mar 2006, 04:00:00
Location: Al-Mariyya, Al-Andalus

Re: Peak oil is over but present lows hurt: Jum'ah

Unread postby shortonsense » Thu 27 Nov 2008, 18:21:04

virgincrude wrote:Saudi ARAMCO president and CEO says Peak Oil is over, and that the Peak Oil theory has been proven right.

That is a pretty damn amazing statement.

Saudi ARAMCO president admits Peak Oil.


That should be the headline.



I think JD admits Peak oil....does anyone DISAGREE with it at all except the "its made deep in the earth" crowd?

Seriously, pretending to win an argument which ISN'T an argument doesn't work for me...lets get on with the real work...now that peak oil is over, and we've seen how powerful the forces of modern demand destruction are, lets get with the program reinforcing what is obviously a wonderful thing...non consumption!

Works better than becoming hysterical and proclaiming some grand dieoff scheme because of peak oil anyway.
User avatar
shortonsense
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 3124
Joined: Sat 30 Aug 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Peak oil is over but present lows hurt: Jum'ah

Unread postby jasonraymondson » Thu 27 Nov 2008, 19:53:09

Okay, uhm.. maybe I missed something.

How can peak oil be real, have happened, but is now over?

1) Is he saying that peak oil is passed and we are already heading down the other side of supply?

2) Is he saying that while it did happen, it no longer is happening due to some new event?

3) We magically just created a trillion barrels of oil and everything is hunky dory?
jasonraymondson
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 2727
Joined: Wed 04 Jul 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Peace Out

Re: Peak oil is over but present lows hurt: Jum'ah

Unread postby bratticus » Thu 27 Nov 2008, 20:05:10

jasonraymondson wrote:How can peak oil be real, have happened, but is now over?
Oh that's simple. You just publish enough news articles saying it's over and then you are done. Once enough people are confused about Peak Oil there can no longer be any problems.

I think the fundamental issue is that some goof out there decided to call it "Peak Oil" instead of something meaningful and understandable and non-ambiguous like Peak Petroleum Production. Leaving out the word "production" has set back the movement years and years because people think "Peak Oil Price" more than anything when they hear "Peak Oil".
User avatar
bratticus
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 2368
Joined: Thu 12 Jun 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Bratislava

Re: Peak oil is over but present lows hurt: Jum'ah

Unread postby shortonsense » Fri 28 Nov 2008, 01:43:27

jasonraymondson wrote:Okay, uhm.. maybe I missed something. How can peak oil be real, have happened, but is now over?

Good question. We increased...we plateued...we peaked...we declined? Ergo... peak oil is in the past, therefore, it is over.
jasonraymondson wrote:1) Is he saying that peak oil is passed and we are already heading down the other side of supply?
I don't think so. His website says something like, disclaimer for idiots ( us ), oil is finite, and therefore one day or someday will peak. Doesn't say it HAS peaked, just that it will. He doesn't specifically exclude the concept that it has already happened though.
jasonraymondson wrote:3) We magically just created a trillion barrels of oil and everything is hunky dory?
nope....just that a peak will happen someday. Sometime. I don't think he pretends that the peak is necessarily meaningful though, which, considering it might have happened, and brought us cheap gasoline again, might be an interesting angle.
User avatar
shortonsense
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 3124
Joined: Sat 30 Aug 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Peak oil is over but present lows hurt: Jum'ah

Unread postby shortonsense » Fri 28 Nov 2008, 01:49:15

bratticus wrote:I think the fundamental issue is that some goof out there decided to call it "Peak Oil" instead of something meaningful and understandable and non-ambiguous like Peak Petroleum Production. Leaving out the word "production" has set back the movement years and years because people think "Peak Oil Price" more than anything when they hear "Peak Oil".
I don't think semantics is the problem. The problem is, everyone and there grandmother wants to hijack the issue to discuss entering negotiations with the aliens who watch over us, to try and pretend it fits in with their "become a vegan" agenda, or their "no more CO2, humans are bad" agenda, or their "the government uses it as an excuse to blow up the towers" agenda, or to spout off about the faked moon landings, or all the claptrap which somehow seems to tag along with this particular topic.

Myself, I think the only thing worse with being associated with the lunatic fringe is people having predicted it back in 1990. Here we are nearly 2 decades later still getting flogged with old dumbass estimates.
User avatar
shortonsense
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 3124
Joined: Sat 30 Aug 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Peak oil is over but present lows hurt: Jum'ah

Unread postby virgincrude » Fri 28 Nov 2008, 06:01:06

shortonsense:

"Seriously, pretending to win an argument which ISN'T an argument doesn't work for me...lets get on with the real work...now that peak oil is over, and we've seen how powerful the forces of modern demand destruction are, lets get with the program reinforcing what is obviously a wonderful thing...non consumption!"

See, this site is called PEAK OIL. Not POST- PEAK OIL, or AFTER PEAK OIL, but PEAK OIL.

Just a few years ago, people on this site were struggling in anguish over how to even talk about Peak Oil. Then the talk moved on to how to get the mass media to talk about Peak Oil. Many many people complained about how hard it was to get the theory accepted seriously.

I soon came to the conclusion, a bit like you, that the actual date and time is not important. How to prepare for it, and what life and society is like after it, is more important than the event itself.

With the global economic break down, this proves to be correct. But the site remains, the people who started posting on here a few years before you, remember well the feeling of illuminated isolation, that feeling of being alone in a world that just didn't get it. Every time some big wig related to the world of petroleum exploration or production hinted he or she might have an inkling of the seriousness of Peak Oil, we jumped up and down excitedly. As the theory and the problems it presents gradually came on to the political radar, we felt relief: at last, decision makers are starting to wake up.

For those of us who have waited for a long time for anybody in any position of influence to actually say something serious related to Peak Oil, these words come too late. There's a kind of deflated feeling of: "Pfffft. Why didn't the wanker acknowledge it while we still had time to do something properly?" Coming from him, back in 2005, this statement would have been extremely important.

In just two years, the whole focus of long standing forum members has changed: we no longer talk about how to break the news to nearest and dearest, or how to make a presentation to a local organisation. The idea of oil depletion is fairly well disseminated, with or without the Peak Oil explanation.

The total lack of interest or surprise this statement has generated here is testament to the fact that Peak Oil, the event, the date and time, the actual pinpointing of the start of global oil production decline, is no longer the important point it was. That's really all I wanted to confirm.

In July 2007 I wrote:

"Talking about Peak Oil is stultifyingly boring. The only thing everybody should be talking about it reducing consumption, period.

"How many of us believe the Peak has already passed? Isn't it obvious that once it has passed (and it is exceedingly difficult to determine exactly when that 'moment' will/has, be/been) it just becomes another piece of information, like 'man landed on the moon', which has no use?

If the peak has not already passed, it certainly looks right now as though we're into that undulating plateau with price volatility and frenetic activity on every related front: stock exchange, inflation, political policy and debate, Peak will cause. So what does it matter? Knowing about Peak Oil is a nerdy little bit of information to add to a list of superiority-enhancing info. Notice how many people go glass eyed when you mention it. It is unecessary information. What would be the reaction/point of a national newspaper headline: POINT OF PEAK OIL REACHED!"

Peak Oil Forum Discussion
User avatar
virgincrude
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 516
Joined: Thu 09 Mar 2006, 04:00:00
Location: Al-Mariyya, Al-Andalus

Re: Peak oil is over but present lows hurt: Jum'ah

Unread postby bratticus » Fri 28 Nov 2008, 08:42:11

shortonsense wrote:I don't think semantics is the problem. --snip-- Myself, I think the only thing worse with being associated with the lunatic fringe is people having predicted it back in 1990. Here we are nearly 2 decades later still getting flogged with old dumbass estimates.

1990? http://www.mkinghubbert.com/milestones/1949
User avatar
bratticus
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 2368
Joined: Thu 12 Jun 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Bratislava

Re: Peak oil is over but present lows hurt: Jum'ah

Unread postby bratticus » Fri 28 Nov 2008, 08:54:20

shortonsense wrote:...or to spout off about the faked moon landings...

Apollo 18 through 20 - The Canceled Missions

There were originally 3 more Apollo missions scheduled to fly to the Moon in the initial Apollo plan, all were cancelled due to budgetary constraints. Apollo 20 was cancelled in January 1970. The flights planned for Apollo 15 and Apollo 19 were cancelled in September, 1970, the remaining missions were then renumbered 15 through 17.
Canceled in 1970? US Peak Oil was when?
User avatar
bratticus
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 2368
Joined: Thu 12 Jun 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Bratislava

Re: Peak oil is over but present lows hurt: Jum'ah

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 28 Nov 2008, 09:07:55

virgincrude wrote:"Talking about Peak Oil is stultifyingly boring. The only thing everybody should be talking about it reducing consumption, period.


I doubt that reducing consumption by itself will solve our coming energy problems.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 14897
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Peak oil is over but present lows hurt: Jum'ah

Unread postby bratticus » Fri 28 Nov 2008, 09:45:52

virgincrude wrote:shortonsense:

"Seriously, pretending to win an argument which ISN'T an argument doesn't work for me...lets get on with the real work...now that peak oil is over, and we've seen how powerful the forces of modern demand destruction are, lets get with the program reinforcing what is obviously a wonderful thing...non consumption!
OK, you first. Get rid of that computer on which you type. Unplug it so that you enter your beloved non-consumption state.
User avatar
bratticus
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 2368
Joined: Thu 12 Jun 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Bratislava

Re: Peak oil is over but present lows hurt: Jum'ah

Unread postby shortonsense » Fri 28 Nov 2008, 22:19:30



Hubberts call wasn't 1990, Colins was.
User avatar
shortonsense
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 3124
Joined: Sat 30 Aug 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Peak oil is over but present lows hurt: Jum'ah

Unread postby shortonsense » Fri 28 Nov 2008, 22:20:41

vtsnowedin wrote:
virgincrude wrote:"Talking about Peak Oil is stultifyingly boring. The only thing everybody should be talking about it reducing consumption, period.


I doubt that reducing consumption by itself will solve our coming energy problems.


Might not solve future problems, but it would certainly make sure we have plenty floating around for the here and now!
User avatar
shortonsense
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 3124
Joined: Sat 30 Aug 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Peak oil is over but present lows hurt: Jum'ah

Unread postby Revi » Fri 28 Nov 2008, 23:06:56

According to the little box down in the corner of this page we are at over $55 a barrel now. It seems like we may have hit a floor price for oil. It held over $50 and maybe next week it will hold again. I expect it to start to creep back up next year. Maybe not to $147, but maybe around a hundo.

That would make gas around $3 a gallon again. That's a reasonable price. I don't buy much of the stuff, so I really don't care if it goes up to $10 a gallon.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
User avatar
Revi
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7417
Joined: Mon 25 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Maine

Re: Peak oil is over but present lows hurt: Jum'ah

Unread postby bratticus » Sat 29 Nov 2008, 08:16:25

Revi wrote:According to the little box down in the corner of this page we are at over $55 a barrel now.
Stock market value and oil price move up in tandem. Can't do something "productive" without increasing the demand for oil now.
User avatar
bratticus
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 2368
Joined: Thu 12 Jun 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Bratislava

Re: Peak oil is over but present lows hurt: Jum'ah

Unread postby shortonsense » Sat 29 Nov 2008, 11:43:43

Revi wrote:According to the little box down in the corner of this page we are at over $55 a barrel now. It seems like we may have hit a floor price for oil. It held over $50 and maybe next week it will hold again. I expect it to start to creep back up next year. Maybe not to $147, but maybe around a hundo.



Do we get to redo the hysterical routine like this past spring when it goes up this time, or is it old hat now? I mean, we were screaming bloody murder back when prices blew through $70/bbl as though it mattered, and we were absolutely giddy by the time it hit $147.

That hysteria was kind of cool....do you think we can get a decent round of Doomerish going again this time, or does the "crying wolf" part of it take some of the fun out of the idea?
User avatar
shortonsense
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 3124
Joined: Sat 30 Aug 2008, 03:00:00

Next

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 35 guests