[geolog]

According to the estimate made by the USGS (WPA 2000) “approximately 800 billion barrels are awaiting discovery in the coming 25 years. Implying a tripling of current annual discovery for a period of 25 years”. This desired increase of annual discovery still isn’t achieved. However, the USGS forecast is real, because a great possibility of improving discovery rate can be achieved as a result of technological progress in exploration methods.

With new technologies (like patented invention US 7,330,790) oil industry could make three times more oil and gas discoveries than when using conventional technology. And the fact that new technology won't need more investments than a conventional one is also very important. It could significantly mitigate world energy problems. The technology is designed and successfully tested in the Barents and the Black Seas as well as in the Gulf of Mexico (see: www.binaryseismoem.weebly.com).

I do not know who will be interested in the technology… Big Oil Co.? OPEC ? No, they dream for oil price to go back to $100 and more. OPEC cut down oil production and does not want to increase discoveries worldwide. Bureaucracy in geophysics or geology? No, they do not want any changes in conventional exploration technology to increase discoveries and production. May be US government and people? What do you think about it?
geolog

[Colorado-Valley]

Burning fossil fuels is very bad for the atmosphere. We should just stop.

[misterno]

Yeah technology will improve discovery and production

The question is what is the price?

[davep]

approximately 800 billion barrels are awaiting discovery in the coming 25 years. Implying a tripling of current annual discovery for a period of 25 years

Is that a known unknown or an unknown unknown?

How can they forecast this given previous diminishing returns? I smell bullshit.

[geolog]

pstarr

Technology is patented and published, so you have to buy just one thing- ME !.

Colorado Valley

Agree! About 1.5 century ago Mendeleev (inventor of periodic system of elements) said, that to burn oil is as stupid as to burn banknotes. Oil is used for making plastics and many other things and this can safe a lot of trees. And saved trees are definitely good for the atmosphere!

misterno

Marine demonstration survey will cost about $3 million.

davep

That is a quote from USGS (WPA 2000). I think it would be better if you ask them .
We both know how difficult it is to predict anything about oil!

[JustaGirl]

If this is about the Bakken again, I swear I will kick my cat!

[yesplease]

approximately 800 billion barrels are awaiting discovery in the coming 25 years. Implying a tripling of current annual discovery for a period of 25 years

Is that a known unknown or an unknown unknown?

How can they forecast this given previous diminishing returns? I smell bullshit.

The discussion is here and most of the increase seems to be coming from the increase in stated reserves. Since I don't have any data on the potential for increased URR I can't really say whether or not the criticism is valid since it isn't covered in that thread.

IHS Energy states that 17.5% of the USGS potential for discovery has been realised by the beginning of 2006. In this figure they include a 25% increase in reserves from those discoveries (reserve growth). If we subtract the 25%, we get an amount of 14% that is realised from the USGS potential for discovery, or about 131 billion barrels.