[Cid_Yama]

Unlike in the 1930s, or others times of financial stress, investor losses and deflationary decline, today we are all helpless. Most families have no backup systems, no savings, no reserve, no plan, no place to get food or fuel if the stores are closed, no water or power if infrastructure cracks, even for a few weeks.

This means relatively small disruptions in the way things normally work have the potential to cause chaos. Take money, for example. Most middle-class people don’t carry any. In fact, it’s almost become a sign of lower socio-economic status to buy a tank of gas or pay for a hotel room or purchase new shoes, with cash. Instead, the vast majority of us use credit or debit to get through our days, with trips to the bank actually being few and far between.

Unfortunately, debit and credit only work when the lights are on. In a power outage, bar code readers don’t function, electronic cash registers go dark and online authorizations cease. In other words, no cash, no sale – if you can even find a store open. And the only gasoline around will be at rural stations which park a generator in the back. This means on the day when the first dimming occurs, you will be SOL if you don’t have a full tank and a wad in your purse. But, sadly, nine of ten people will not.

And why should we worry about failing infrastructure? Because of the financial crisis, which shows every sign of deepening and lengthening.

More than a few American towns and cities have gone bankrupt. The US government is sinking into an unthinkable abyss of debt. Public finances are disintegrating, and yet politicians know it is impossible to raise personal or corporate taxes. So, this is not going to end well.

Expect cuts in services, lower levels of response and public sector layoffs. <b>This could mean the next ice storm has the lights out for 12 days, instead of 24 hours.</b>

And if things start to spiral into deflation, then reduced government support will become the norm. Meanwhile a credit crunch can prevent the grocery store from borrowing enough on its line to stock its shelves, or the trucking company from getting insurance or enough diesel, or – God forbid – convince a faltering bank to cancel revolving credit, and turn your card balance into a demand loan.

Many may dismiss my cautions, saying a rerun of the Thirties is impossible. And they`re right. This time we`d be screwed.
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[cipi604]

We have HidroQuebec here. The power won't go down.

[Sixstrings]

We have HidroQuebec here. The power won't go down.

Oh blast you Canadians, always coming out smelling like a rose.

Seriously, you may be more vulnerable than you think, since your power grid is connected to others. Wasn't it some kind of failure in Canada that caused the northeastern US blackout in the 60's? From what I understand, it's not so simple to disconnect one local area from the rest of the grid.

As for surviving: well, I live in Florida so I won't freeze. I live near the ocean, so I could always fish (one flaw in this logic are starving folks in Haiti -- why can't they just fish???). I really don't think starvation is an issue as much as the threat of violence, as in New Orleans after Katrina.

Speaking of my home state.. I saw an economic crisis map the other day, and Florida is in the "worst" column, along with California and Michigan. Interestingly, from what I can tell Texas is the best place to be economy wise.

[Koyaanisqatsi]

Oh blast you Canadians, always coming out smelling like a rose.
Seriously, you may be more vulnerable than you think, since your power grid is connected to others. Wasn't it some kind of failure in Canada that caused the northeastern US blackout in the 60's? From what I understand, it's not so simple to disconnect one local area from the rest of the grid.

The 2003 blackout took out Toronto, too.

[alokin]

It pays then if you always went to your local green grocer or your local bakery. They simply will write down what you owe and a week later you pay back.

[JJ]

It pays then if you always went to your local green grocer or your local bakery. They simply will write down what you owe and a week later you pay back.

I'm a greengrocer in Texas....hehehe

[rangerone314]

After this financial crisis is over, assuming peak oil doesn't happen before it is over, the debt issue will rear its ugly head.

At some point, probably when peak oil & high energy costs rear their ugly head, countries like China will no longer continue lending money to the US and will probably try to cut their losses when the dollar collapses completely.

When that happens, the trillions of dollars in debt will drag the US down like a lead weight. The collapse of the US economy will result in the largest item in the Federal budget being interest on the debt. We could probably default on the debt and cause the total collapse of international trade.

No matter what the government does, many people in the US are going to die, and even more people elsewhere.

I seriously think that the government needs to fund a few self & mutually supporting enclaves that can survive peak oil. For example a few areas with manufacturing & resources that are completely solar powered, and where transportation is all by electric rail and plug-ins.

Those areas should be walled off and quarantined from the rest of the country so civilization can still continue. The goal would be to manufacture the infrastructure & technology that could gradually be expanded to surrounding areas to expand the enclaves.

[Cog]

Cid_Yama has asked an interesting question. Can you survive? I'd say it depends. Living in suburbia currently, I'm good with stored food for 6 months and stored water for one month. I keep a months worth of expenses in cash. I'm also in the process of converting the entire back yard in garden space Figure 80'X80' when I'm done.

All that being said, for long term disruption of infrastructure, I couldn't survive here due to breakdown in law and order. My alternative plan would be to re-locate to my dad's farm and try to make a go of it there. The resources there would be a lot better then where I'm at. He keeps seeds as do I and we just might possibly be able to be self-sufficient in food. Although there is game to hunt in the area, I'm not the only one who will have that idea. Barter would have to be part of the plan.

As long as the electrical grid stays up and some basic services continue, I believe I could pull off long-term survival at the farm. Barring that, I'm unsure. Without the use of mechanical advantage that oil gives us, growing enough food is a tough thing to do.

[MarkJ]

Yes, I could survive, I have no real debt, multiple homes, investment homes, apartment buildings, commercial buildings, multiple businesses/income streams, cash, food, water, wells, septic systems, acreage, farmland, wooded land, lakes, rivers, game, fish, equipment, tools, generators, supplemental/backup heat, gas/propane stoves wood, pellets, coal and thousands of gallons of gas, diesel, heating oil, kerosene, propane and waste oil.

Some of my city properties are more vulnerable to disruptions since they're not set up for generators, transfer switches, supplemental heat & hot water, plus they depend on municipal water, sewer and natural gas.

Several years ago during a gas main break, one of my city apartment buildings was one of the only buildings on the street with heat & hot water since it had oil fired boilers. Without heat, many of the older uninsulated and poorly insulated city structures don't have long before pipes freeze, crack or burst.

Many city residents are renters, so they're not prepared to deal with disruptions and neither are their landlords.

[dunewalker]

I seriously think that the government needs to fund a few self & mutually supporting enclaves that can survive peak oil. For example a few areas with manufacturing & resources that are completely solar powered...

They already have. It's called the ISS-- International Space Station...

[deMolay]

You bet. I moved to my present location about 20 years ago and started setting up my doomstead. I have my 640 acres completely paid off, 4 or 5 official income streams all from different sources. Several un official income streams. I have 20 head of purebred Highlands all paid for and producing beef or milk, plus hides. I have 3 saddle horses. 2 wells and 4 dugouts full of water. I have a well established garden. A green house which I will expand. I have marketable skills, real skills that will be necessary in a collapse. Blacksmithing, welding, carpentry, farming, hunting, Licensed Herbalist, hunter, tracker, cowboy, all mechanical repairs from water wheels to gas turbines. I am 15 miles from town over a steel and wooden bridge on one of the biggest rivers in Northern Alberta. I own everything I have and carry a cash surplus, plus a few pounds of silver. I have back up power, probably 5 years worth of ammo, 100 acres of bush, a wood splitter, wood heat, a gas well and a mini comunity of 7 country families within a 1/2 mile. I have about a 1 year supply of dried and canned food, plus beef. Locally I have mule deer/white tail/ elk/moose/prairie chicken/ and lakes and rivers full of fish. I carry about 6 months worth of fuel in farm tanks if I have to stretch it. In my local area are millions of bushels of wheat, oats, barley in farmers bins and I have a grain grinder well serviced up. I have a couple of hundred thousand put away. I have seen this coming for 30 years and have been preparing for this event seriously for 20 years. My sons and daughters have been raised in the north. We are on our own turf and well prepared. The only prep I have not made yet is a nuclear fall out shelter. But I just might do that next.

[davep]

I'm not in deMolay territory, but I think I and my family are better prepared than most, after upping sticks and moving to a very rural area of France. We have weapons, land, trees that provide sustenance, friendly well-armed neighbours and no debts.

If we don't survive, then I guess most people here won't. Anyway, it's fun to prepare and no-one can take what they have with them when they do go. I just want to prepare something for future generations of my family.

[deMolay]

davep, that is my motivation as well, the next generations survival. One of the most important things is teaching them the old ways. The basics. How to make a fire on a wet day with 1 match. How to make a fire with no matches, just using a fire drill etc. And it is actually fun anyways.

[RedStateGreen]

I hope so. If Oklahoma gets zombified then nowhere in America is safe. I just worry about my kids, especially my daughter, who is bound and determined to go back to southern CA.

[Pops]

Unlike in the 1930s, or others times of financial stress, investor losses and deflationary decline, today we are all helpless.

I'd say we aren't. At least some few who have been posting hereabouts aren't. I have no idea if I can survive but I know of a few who have separated themselves from the pitfalls you describe.

So Is this a Pyre or Prod thread?

[evilgenius]

Good point, Cid, when the banks went down in the thirties those that thought they had their money in a safe place didn't. I have to admit when the worst of the trouble was plaguing us the last couple of months I was into cash big, but since have gone back to my old ways. I don't like carrying that much money. If somebody sticks me up, it is gone.

[Ludi]

Many may dismiss my cautions, saying a rerun of the Thirties is impossible. And they`re right. This time we`d be screwed.

I like to think we've all been "prepping" all these years we've been yakking away here on peakoil.com, and are prepared for lengthy or even permanent emergency conditions.

[rangerone314]

One thing that I haven't seen mentioned much, and that is people's tendency to be clannish or tribal when things get wooly...

That being said, when TSHTF it is best to be surrounded by your own ethnic group, to avoid being targeted for being the wrong color. This goes for any color. Katrina...

[rangerone314]

Actually, I would say as far as surviving in the US goes, the worst states are probably California, Florida, New York, and New Mexico...

Southern California will be a killing field like Bosnia... WTSHTF...

If I had to guess what will happen is that the financial aspects of peak oil will hit before starvation and die off... people will probably initially move from suburban houses into apartment complexes... which will make things easier for those who prepare for peak oil...

I'm not worried about thousands of zombie hordes coming out of the city 20 miles away because I'm they are all not going to make a beeline for my homestead... I'm worried about the housing development of McMansions a mile down the road from me.

[Blacksmith]

The one thing I've noticed about survival in any situation is to keep it simple.

In long term survival the important thing is to not rely too much on complicated technology. However, in our present situation do rely on technology to help you prepare.