[Nickel]

Prime Minister Harper has used the word "depression" now as a possible outcome of the financial crisis. This is a guy who, as late as September, was denying we were evening heading into a recession.

OTTAWA — Stephen Harper has delivered his bleakest forecast yet for the Canadian economy, warning yesterday the future is increasingly hard to read and conceding the possibility of a depression.

"The truth is, I've never seen such uncertainty in terms of looking forward to the future," the Prime Minister told CTV News in Halifax.

"I'm very worried about the Canadian economy."

[dissident]

He is also talking about running deficits. This is a good sign. The monetarist theology that has produced this global mess needs to be buried after being staked through the heart.

[RdSnt]

We would have been better off had Harper not spent the surplus, secretively, to make the Canadian economy look better than it actually has been for the past couple of years.
This man is BushCo. lite in so many ways.

Now of course we have another American, having been crowned to the Liberal leadership. Things don't look all that good for finding a Canadian way of coping with this mess.

[Nickel]

Now of course we have another American, having been crowned to the Liberal leadership. Things don't look all that good for finding a Canadian way of coping with this mess.

Yeah. I know everyone wants to eat Bob Rae's liver, but I wanted him to take the reins. He shepherded Ontario though some tough times and all he got to show for it was the stained t-shirt. But I know Rae is a guy who will make tough decisions that are right for the province/country but not necessarily right to get re-elected, and let the dickheads in Greater Calgary have something else to crow about on their bar stools in 2015 -- we need someone like that NOW. And because the Grits lost their guts and their minds, we aren't going to get it.

[EnergyUnlimited]

He is also talking about running deficits. This is a good sign. The monetarist theology that has produced this global mess needs to be buried after being staked through the heart.

And running deficits will finish off, whatever is left.

[Nickel]

I'm not a fan of running deficits but I understand the thinking behind them. I think taxes should be raised to some extent, carefully, with an eye to what can be sustained, and whatever goes beyond is deficit spending. There's no call to deficit spend in good times, and we've been making hay while the sun shines. But now there are tough times and we need to keep the lights on and the furnace on and all the other things we have to do normally, plus the things we need to do to keep businesses from failing through no fault of their own and people employed. These are good reasons to temporarily spend beyond our means, because in the end they pay dividends, financial and social. Deficit spending on wars, aircraft carriers, Chinese TV sets, and global hegemony is not. In fact, it's a big part of the reason we're all now in this mess.

[EnergyUnlimited]

But now there are tough times and we need to keep the lights on and the furnace on and all the other things we have to do normally, plus the things we need to do to keep businesses from failing through no fault of their own and people employed.

The problem is that Western economic system is on the brink of monetary collapse and running further deficits can accelerate it.
Eg many Western nations including US and Britain are already hopelessly indebted and running further deficits there is adding insults to existing injuries.
It is a straightforward route to national bankruptcies.

But heck, if national bankruptcy is still inevitable in perspective of very few years and there are some fools to lend you money around...

These are good reasons to temporarily spend beyond our means, because in the end they pay dividends, financial and social.

As long as you are not excessively indebted.
Unfortunately it is not the case now.
Running deficits is also a permanent feature of Western economies, not a temporary one.

[Nickel]

The problem is that Western economic system is on the brink of monetary collapse and running further deficits can accelerate it.

In reality, there's a balance to be struck. Larding on too much debt will erode confidence in international lenders. On the other hand, being miserly will allow businesses to fail, people to lose jobs, homes, and possessions, and lead to deficit spending on social services -- either that, or leave people to starve in the streets and crime go rampant. The idea is to spend judiciously to bridge the gap in confidence in the economy to the point that it continues under its own steam. It is to hold the hands of a toddler such that he doesn't fall down, until at last he can walk on his own.

We have to look at it in terms of reality. The food exists. The homes exist. The potential for those jobs existed yesterday and will again. Nothing's vanished or dried up in the real world; what was there yesterday is there today will be there tomorrow. It's just the confidence people have in the economy -- the grease that keeps the wheels moving -- is on the downturn, and it's being expressed in limiting all those things. The means to get goods to markets is freezing up. We need to smooth that over. The economy exists largely in our minds.

[Dreamtwister]

If we have to run deficits (And I'm pretty sure we will have to at this point), can we at least make them smart?

-National high-speed rail program

-Remove the sunset date on the ecoENERGY Retrofit program and expand the rebate grant

-Properly fund and equip the arctic patrols and introduce settlement incentives in the territories

-Introduce tarriffs on foriegn grown foods and ease the burden on domestic producers

-And for crying out loud, bring our troops home from that financial black hole in Afghanistan

We're not talking about economic recovery any more. This is about survival.

[evilgenius]

He is also talking about running deficits. This is a good sign. The monetarist theology that has produced this global mess needs to be buried after being staked through the heart.

You have hit the nail on the head. What we are seeing happen is largely due to the monetarists. Their bankrupt theories working in conjuction with what happens when peak oil conditions permeate the system have caused it, to be more specific.

[EnergyUnlimited]

We have to look at it in terms of reality. The food exists. The homes exist. The potential for those jobs existed yesterday and will again. Nothing's vanished or dried up in the real world; what was there yesterday is there today will be there tomorrow. It's just the confidence people have in the economy -- the grease that keeps the wheels moving -- is on the downturn, and it's being expressed in limiting all those things. The means to get goods to markets is freezing up. We need to smooth that over. The economy exists largely in our minds.

A lot of things, jobs etc, which you claim are *existing* now are doing so solely of courtesy of accumulation of debt, which we can no longer service.
If you try to keep these adventures going by taking even more debt, it will only be a temporary measure because at some point credit will dry out and monetary collapse will follow.
And majority of our *babies*, eg businesses, will never walk independently, regardless how long you will try to help and lead them.
They are ill with *cerebral palsy*, if you want to talk in baby health terms.
Western governments have chosen this route [to keep dead walking at expense of unaffordable debt] anyway, so you will have an opportunity to see an outcome for sure.

Another thing is that economy doesn't exist mainly in our minds.
Economy is constrained by surrounding physical reality.

So it is certain that economic models relying on eternal growth will invariably collapse.
Capitalist model is an example here and its future seems certain, regardless of one liking it or not.
And any socialist models are not performing any better - they are also growth based and subjected to the same physical constraints.
Current excessive debt (public, private, doesn't matter) which we are no longer able to service is a warning sign that such collapse is approaching fast.
I do not see any way out of that, however I am certain that pictures won't be pretty.

[Snowrunner]

If we have to run deficits (And I'm pretty sure we will have to at this point), can we at least make them smart?

-National high-speed rail program

-Remove the sunset date on the ecoENERGY Retrofit program and expand the rebate grant

-Properly fund and equip the arctic patrols and introduce settlement incentives in the territories

-Introduce tarriffs on foriegn grown foods and ease the burden on domestic producers

-And for crying out loud, bring our troops home from that financial black hole in Afghanistan

We're not talking about economic recovery any more. This is about survival.

Good points, but that would also require Canada to cancel some agreements it has, e.g. NAFTA, which technically Canada could to with six months notice, the question is: Who would have the guts to do it?

Considering what's going on in the US I think anything happening up here will just rush out the hole that is NAFTA, it's like trying to build the ship higher while there's a huge gaping hole in the keel.

As for Iggy.... He may not be the worst thing that could have happened, he at least seems to have some bite and may take a chunk out of Harper and his "lalalala" politics and they are still planning to hold a leadership convention in May, with any luck he can clean house in the opposition by then and maybe open up the field for other contenders.

I think what the libs need right now is someone who can do a "scorched earth" policy on the CPC and then start planting again once that's done, not sure if Iggy is willing to play that role though.

[Dreamtwister]

Good points, but that would also require Canada to cancel some agreements it has, e.g. NAFTA, which technically Canada could to with six months notice, the question is: Who would have the guts to do it?

None of the current scum-sucking American lapdogs in Ottawa, that's for sure.

I'll do it though; I'm not afraid of anybody. Now all I need to do is find a riding in which I can run...

[Nickel]

-Introduce tarriffs on foriegn grown foods and ease the burden on domestic producers

We're a net food exporter. We start throwing tariff walls on other people's food and they countervail, we stand to be on the losing end of that. It's shooting ourselves in the foot.

-And for crying out loud, bring our troops home from that financial black hole in Afghanistan

True. The cry of true patriot love is (and always has been) "IMPORT OUR TROOPS!"

[Dreamtwister]

We're a net food exporter. We start throwing tariff walls on other people's food and they countervail, we stand to be on the losing end of that. It's shooting ourselves in the foot.

Only if we refuse to store the surplus. It might cause short-term pain, but that's coming anyway. I'm trying to take the long view.

How about a compromise? A national "buy local" movement?

[Nickel]

We have to look at it in terms of reality. The food exists. The homes exist. The potential for those jobs existed yesterday and will again. Nothing's vanished or dried up in the real world; what was there yesterday is there today will be there tomorrow. It's just the confidence people have in the economy -- the grease that keeps the wheels moving -- is on the downturn, and it's being expressed in limiting all those things. The means to get goods to markets is freezing up. We need to smooth that over. The economy exists largely in our minds.

A lot of things, jobs etc, which you claim are *existing* now are doing so solely of courtesy of accumulation of debt, which we can no longer service.

What are you talking about? We've had a POSITIVE balance of trade for ages. We've been paying DOWN our debt for thirteen years; it's about 2/3 of what it was when I was finishing university. The expansion we've had over the past generation or so has actually been earned.

Please -- don't be yet another of those ignorant Canadians who sees it happening in Peoria on CNN and automatically concludes what's true there is true here. It ain't necessarily so.

Another thing is that economy doesn't exist mainly in our minds.
Economy is constrained by surrounding physical reality.

Economy is like nationality; it exists in the mind, and in the mind collective of a society, and is given expression and "reality" through the resulting actions. A building is a building. What it means to, and in, the economy is purely a function of individual and collective perception. The only physical manifestation of economies are when assets are either created or destroyed physically. Otherwise, they represent either realized or unrealized potential, and that comes down to the willingness of an agency and its financial backers to actuate.

[Nickel]

Only if we refuse to store the surplus.

Who's going to pay to do that? Or are we supposed to ask the farmers to donate that stuff to big warehouses; there, that'll teach Florida to charge so much for oranges...?

How about a compromise? A national "buy local" movement?

That's more sensible than tariffs, I think. Give people the choice; if they don't want to buy, it's not like you're telling foreign producers they CAN'T sell here... it's telling them "give us a better reason to buy from abroad", which I think is fair enough.

[Dreamtwister]

That's more sensible

Hey, I'm all about finding workable solutions. I'm not so arrogant as to assume my answers are the only ones, or even necessarily the best ones. I recognize this is a team sport.

[EnergyUnlimited]

What are you talking about? We've had a POSITIVE balance of trade for ages. We've been paying DOWN our debt for thirteen years; it's about 2/3 of what it was when I was finishing university. The expansion we've had over the past generation or so has actually been earned.

Please -- don't be yet another of those ignorant Canadians who sees it happening in Peoria on CNN and automatically concludes what's true there is true here. It ain't necessarily so.

When I talk *we* on this forum, I have in mind US or Western world at large.

Do you really believe that Canada will be allowed to thrive while US go down the drain?
There are so many treaties between US and Canada which are so advantageous to US...
How are you going to wiggle out of these?

Economy is like nationality; it exists in the mind, and in the mind collective of a society, and is given expression and "reality" through the resulting actions. A building is a building. What it means to, and in, the economy is purely a function of individual and collective perception. The only physical manifestation of economies are when assets are either created or destroyed physically. Otherwise, they represent either realized or unrealized potential, and that come down to the willingness of an agency and its financial backers to actuate.

Economy is constrained by availability of natural resources and ecological considerations.

So if society *want* to run some unrealistic schemes, Mother Nature will say *nope* at some point, albeit she may allow to carry on with a nuisance for a while.

[Nickel]

When I talk *we* on this forum, I have in mind US or Western world at large.

Oh, thank God; I thought you were using the royal "we".

Do you really believe that Canada will be allowed to thrive while US go down the drain?

Hold on, Strawman; who said anything about thriving? You said our jobs and infrastructure were being supported by a debt load we supposedly can't even afford to service -- which is rubbish in both particulars.

Economy is constrained by availability of natural resources and ecological considerations.

Uh huh. Well, there were plenty of both in the days of the dinosaurs, but oddly enough, not much economy to speak of. There might be a little more to it than just that.