by dissident » Sat 20 Dec 2008, 11:59:03
The World Bank should put the crack pipe down. The oil price averaged $25 between 1999 and 2005 when Russia's GDP growth averaged 6%. Just as in the US, the current economic decline is due to the end of cheap credit. Russian domestic interest rates are over 11% while western ones were under 4%. The Russian banking industry is too small to service the domestic economy partly because of high interest rates, so borrowers take their business abroad and the assets of the domestic banks (i.e. loans) stay small.
But Russia's current foreign reserves, $485 billion US, are larger than the total amount of its private and public debt, $480 billion US. This does not count the $200 billion US in the two sovereign wealth funds. About $320 billion US has been allocated to prop up the banking industry. Unlike the US banks that destroyed themselves on the subprime mortgage racket, there is no equivalent problem in Russia. The country still has a positive trade balance.