[Zero-point]

In a world running low on oil, several countries are still sitting on massive supplies. If only they could get to them.

The List: The World’s Largest Untapped Oil Fields

[essex]

Very interesting.
Missing from this list, and understandably, in light of the geopolitical situation, are substantial desposits in Georgia, FSU. Canargo and Frontera have huge finds , Canargo- Manavi, Norio in particular. Money and technical challenges are holding up development but this is likely to change early next year.

[Zero-point]

Money and technical challenges are holding up development but this is likely to change early next year.

If it doesn't change and development is still being held up keep your eyes open to who or which organizations or NGO's are preventing their development. I have a feeling if there are such groups trying to prevent such development you'll find the source of a fake peak oil event in the making. In other words not natural event of oil running out but an event created by political and economic manipulations.

[dohboi]

In the link to Sugar Loaf:

"The field is located beneath 2 km (1.2 miles) of water, several kilometers of sand and hard rock, and 2 km of salt"

There's your deep po conspiracy nastily holding all that nice oil in the ground for no good reason.

At $32/bbl (or even twice that), there is no way they are going to continue investing in fields like these.

Tell us which "organizations or NGO's" are conspiring to create a "fake peak" please. We're all interested to hear.

If you have no such information, please desist from trolling the forum.

[copious.abundance]

The number for the Caricoca field in Brazil is not an official number, and furthermore it would actually refer to two potentially connected fields, Sugar Loaf and Carioca.

Just in case you wanted to know.

[copious.abundance]

In the link to Sugar Loaf:

"The field is located beneath 2 km (1.2 miles) of water, several kilometers of sand and hard rock, and 2 km of salt"

There's your deep po conspiracy nastily holding all that nice oil in the ground for no good reason.

At $32/bbl (or even twice that), there is no way they are going to continue investing in fields like these.

Tell us which "organizations or NGO's" are conspiring to create a "fake peak" please. We're all interested to hear.

If you have no such information, please desist from trolling the forum.

dohboi I'd suggest you keep up with the Brazil thread:
--> Stuff to read <--
Of interest are the several articles at the top of the page, in addition to ROCKMAN's comment here:

I hope they are right OF2...I might get a trip or to Rio if they are. I do know that the wells won't cost anything like our Deep Water GOM. Though the play is in rather deep water the drilling is very conventional and thus much less costly and risky. The GOM wells, besides being drilled to depths below 30,000, require many casing strings to reach TD. The presalt wells are at half the depth and require simple (i.e. cheap) casing programs. Their target reservoirs are also super permeable and simple completion techniques. Great place for high delivery horizontal wells.

Again, I haven’t seen any actual drilling costs so I can't be too definitive. With no pipelines out there they'll have to produce into some form of FSOP. I hate taking any gov't official word for granted when it comes to economic analysis but they may be telling something close to the truth.

[dohboi]

Thanks for the link, OF. I am relying on what I have heard from Rembrandt and others over at TOD. Always interesting to hear what the rock has to say on such topics, though.

[cipi604]

The List: The World’s Largest Untapped Oil Fields = The List: The Last Crumbs Left to Eat

[Lanthanide]

I have to say, the list was rather underwhelming, especially with most of them not being anywhere near production.

[eastbay]

Carioca (Sugar Loaf)

Location: The Atlantic Ocean, 275 km (171 miles) off the coast of Brazil

Estimated Reserves: 33 billion barrels

What’s the holdup? The field is located beneath 2 km (1.2 miles) of water, several kilometers of sand and hard rock, and 2 km of salt. Until recently, technology did not exist to study oil deposits that lie beneath undersea salt formations, nor was there technology to drill at that depth. Additionally, it will be years before Brazil can even figure out just how much of its newfound treasure can be extracted.


All three of the following must occur before we see any of this oil:

1) Much higher oil prices.
2) Solving the financial crisis.
3) Luck that oil's really down there.

[ROCKMAN]

Yes Lanth...the reserve numbers do seem overwhelming. But it's difficult for me to put them into a time frame that allows an even rough guess on effect on global oil production rates. Even though drilling and production technology has greatly improved, it's still difficult to move more then a few 100 thousand bopd from individual offshore fields. Even assuming the economic support for development is there it still takes time. There are still areas with big potential like they are discovering off of Brazil (like new basins in Deep Water Indonesia which OF2 has pointed out elsewhere).

But it all goes back to rate and not volume. Which really goes back to net rate -- new production less depletion of old fields. We still don't have a good handle on real OPEC depletion. The uncertainty of the time lines for developing these new reserves adds even more fuzzyness. We may be able to foster some optimism with all these new numbers floating around but I try to bring myself back to the present for a reality check. In other words, how much has the worlds existing fields declined this last years (difficult in itself given voluntary cut backs) and how much new production has been added.

[TheDude]

But it all goes back to rate and not volume.

Note my post detailing how Brazil is barely making any gains in production even after bringing almost 1 mb/d of new flows on line. Perhaps it's taking its time to come on line, or other factors (striking workers?) are having an impact; or, as GR Morton suggests, the declines are very heavy from their existing fields to such an extent the new wells are hardly making a dent. The IEA's figure for non-OPEC deepwater declines was double digits, after all - something like 15% average IIRC.

This will be something to watch over time. Arguing about it here is pretty much futile, as someone remarked in another thread, this is akin to watching paint dry, and it will take years to see where Brazil stands. With Mexico I'm more confident about laying down predictions - unfortunately.

[killJOY]

Reserves are not flows.

Reserves are not flows.

Reserves are not flows.

Underlying decline rates coupled with rising population coupled with economic collapse....

Testing, testing.

Is this thing working?

[ROCKMAN]

DUDE,


Speaking of Brazil development....did you see that China offered to put $10 billion on the table to help them jump start development? No details in the press release but you have to believe China is at least trying to tie up first call.

True KJ. But reserves/rate does offer some idea of practical field life. Unfortunately, as you imply, some folks take the magnitude of one as a measure of the other.