[Graeme]

Gwynne Dyer: 'Peak oil' gloom probably just a load of horse manure

The IEA's previous reports, which assured everyone that there was plenty of oil until 2030, were based on what Birol called "a global assumption about the world's oilfields": that the rate of decline in the output of existing oilfields was 3.7 per cent a year.

It turns out that production in the older fields is really falling at 6.7 per cent a year. Birol assumes, or rather pretends, that new production of "unconventional oil" (oil extracted from tar sands or oil shales) will allow total production to match demand for another decade until 2030, but this is sheer fantasy.

One writer in the Times in 1894 estimated that in 50 years the streets of London would be buried under 3m of manure. In fact, within 35 years the streets of London were almost completely free of horses, and filled with automobiles instead.

They created a different kind of pollution, but at least you didn't step in it. The same fate is likely to overtake oil-fuelled vehicles in the next 35 years. The shift will be driven by concerns about foreign exchange costs and energy independence, and increasingly by the need to curb greenhouse gas emissions.

It is starting with ever-tightening standards for fuel efficiency. That will be followed by the first mass-market generation of electric vehicles, due in the next two or three years. So American oil consumption is going to start falling quite fast, quite soon.

The same is true elsewhere. Indeed, it is a safe bet that the demand for oil is going to fall faster than the supply over the next 10 or 15 years, even if we are already at or near "peak oil", for the annual decline in oil production just after the peak is actually quite shallow - around 2 per cent - in the classic Hubbert curve.

nzherald

[Hermes]

Bad article.

The same fate is likely to overtake oil-fuelled vehicles in the next 35 years. .... It is a safe bet that the demand for oil is going to fall faster than the supply over the next 10 or 15 years.

Hrmmm... so since the demand will be lower than the supply then everything is going to be rosy. Kind of like a bloated, starving child can't ingest any food without barfing it up again so it's really just fine that there's no food to eat. Or a person in hypothermia feels warm, so really there's no need to try to warm them up.

The economy is struggling in its death throes on the cold hard ground in a pool of blood and guts.... and less oil is being used because of it... and that amount is less than supply! So happy us: everything's going to be just fine!

Nice.

Oh right... but wait for that fleet of electric cars that's about to flood the planet. Sure. Keep waiting.

[Lanthanide]

Even if the premise is true, that alternative vehicles are shortly going to take over, that really only applies to first world countries.

This means that with less demand, the price will go down, making oil a cheaper fuel for lesser developed countries, so they will take up the demand slack instead, driving the prices right back up.

[green_achers]

I wouldn't complain about a meter or two of horse poop on my garden.

[Heineken]

The supply of oil is practically infinite as long as we're in an economic depression.

So, indeed, why be gloomy?

I'm wearing a barrel to the party.

[Graeme]

Well, here's a slightly different interpretation of the same report:

Cheap gas today, but 'peak oil' crisis near

In November, the International Energy Agency -- an intergovernmental organization that advises 28 member countries -- released its latest forecast. Between 2006 and 2030, the IEA predicts, worldwide energy consumption will grow 45 per cent.

"Current trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable," said Nobuo Tanaka, executive director of the IEA. "Rising imports of oil and gas into OECD regions and developing Asia, together with the growing concentration of production in a small number of countries, would increase our susceptibility to supply disruptions and sharp price hikes. At the same time, greenhouse-gas emissions would be driven up inexorably, putting the world on track for an eventual global temperature increase of up to 6 C."

Think 1973. That year, an oil embargo imposed by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries hammered the developed world.

Oil shocks will become more common and more severe. The triggers could be anything. A terrorist attack in the Strait of Hormuz, maybe. A coup in Saudi Arabia. The collapse of Nigeria. Whatever it is, it will cause oil prices to explode and economies to fall to their knees.

Canada and every other developed nation runs on oil. It is the foundation of our economy. But with most of the world's oil coming from unstable regions far away -- and the proportion that comes from places such as the Middle East is growing rapidly -- that foundation is not reliable.

canada

Who is right?

[heroineworshipper]

Peak oil describes the peak in production & demand. Production peaked between 2005 & 2007, bigtime. That oil production today is far below the peak & can't exceed past levels no matter how much demand there is is a fact. Demand is merely following the decline in production.

There is no way to create enough value in other parts of the economy to produce oil from the remaining sources at the rate it was produced before 2005.

[americandream]

You'll believe any ol shit you read Graeme, when the evidence is right there...staring you in the face!

[neocone]

The capacity for human beings to adapt is amazing. People would carve out statues and write journals and poems and find time to educated themselves in Auswitz...

WWII changed the WHOLE OF EUROPE into a ruin field and its population more poor than that of Bengladesh today, yet it was able to rebuild in a few years, even the eastern part preyed upon by the USSR and not benefiting from the Marshall plan.

I think the "Sky is falling" reasoning might not hold true. The changes will be gradual to adapt to less energy, even if in a few years they might look enormous.

Africa today is a dump and ethnic mess by our standards... yet people find joy and happiness there and go on with their lives.

Such is Life!

[Concerned]

The capacity for human beings to adapt is amazing. People would carve out statues and write journals and poems and find time to educated themselves in Auswitz...

Didn't approx 6million people "adapt" in the death camps?

What about the historic "adaptations" due to famine much "happiness" there I imagine. Those Africans so joyful and happy with a mouth full of flies.

Africa today is a dump and ethnic mess by our standards... yet people find joy and happiness there and go on with their lives.

I can hardly wait ! How about you?

Such is Life!

Ummm yeah ok LOL

Seriously NFI some peeps I tell ya.

[JohnDenver]

The supply of oil is practically infinite as long as we're in an economic depression.

So, indeed, why be gloomy?

I'm wearing a barrel to the party.

Why are you complaining? You're anti-vaccine, anti-airplane, anti-fishing, anti-progress, anti-technology, anti-growth. Your whole ideology is pro-poverty.

You advocate no more growth
No more growth means increased poverty
Therefore, you advocate increased poverty.

[Concerned]

You'll believe any ol crap you read Graeme, when the evidence is right there...staring you in the face!

Some people will only admit defeat when they are back in a cave. Other than that that can point back and say look at all that progress.

[jlw61]

Actually we didn't get rid of the horse manure and I see loads of it being shoveled every day. In fact it's been growing at a geometric progression since the advent of TV. The hockey stick chart became apparent with the public's adoption of the internet.

Happy New Year

[flatline]

I have been leaning towards agreeing with peak oil estimates the last few months, and reading further about it. However I just read an article by a man I respect for his opinions/thoughts, Gwynne Dyer. He states that technology should be the factor that eliminates the need for oil dependance. He cites reference to the horse & buggy use in the late 19th century, and how predictions by many saw a lack of horses, pile up of horse manure in the streets, as well as other negative elements associated with its usage were off the mark with the creation of the automobile 2 or 3 decades later. It's a valid point, however I don't neccessarily equate the catestrophic nature of population demands in 1895 on the same level as 2005. So I don't know what to think here. Would like you know everyone's opionion.

Gwynne Dyer: 'Peak oil' gloom probably just a load of horse manure

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/ ... d=10549895

[vision-master]

So, 'Mr. pop shrink' man, what the alternative?

[Ayoob]

I guess we'll see what he has to say if horses DO come back.

[dinopello]

I guess we'll see what he has to say if horses DO come back.

It seems clear that horses can't come back in a way to support what the current way of living has become



That should tell you something right there.

Is he hoping for the flying car ?

[Hermes]

Already discussed in another thread: http://www.peakoil.com/post838792.html

The article is poorly thought out, and the conclusions are absurd.