misterno wrote:US dollar, Euro or Sterling will never lose value due to too much printing but rather lose value from investors losing confidence.
Look at US dollar, the world is flush with paper and dollar still holds value like there is no inflation.
That is where you are totally wrong.
Inflation is not just a psycological phenomenon where prices go up or currencies because people just know that more money was printed. Prices can however react pre-mateurely as traders and investors postition themselves quickly to take advantage or hedge themselves.
What ultimately drives currency valuations is like other things, supply and demand. When more money is printed some of it will find it's way overseas. The more money that exists, the more will be available on the FX exchange.
This move then creates it's own momentum but the ultimate foundation for this is supply and demand of that currency. (And in the case of inflation it is more supply driven as the market is flooded with currency.)
Just think for a second about what you just said.
USD amongst other not losing value no matter how much is printed.... So treasury could print and buy up every single resource and asset in the world that is for sale and the currency would still be as strong.
Of course not.
As Bernanke himself said, USD only has a value as long as it is in short supply.
USD has however gone down and the down trend is despite the more recent rally not broken. WHat USD however has benefited from is the fact that most international transations are settled in USD. So when when traders and investors have been unwinding their positions they have needed USD for settlement.
Furthermore, USD hasn't inflated that great yet. Monetary base has increased (and most the money just sits on the banks balance sheets rather than being lent out and throught that finding its way to amongst other FX markets.) The inflation however begins in earnest when the money shifts hands as that is what creates velocity and throught the fractional reserve banking system a multiplication of the money supply by 6, 7 maybe 9 times.
As we have seen already should the banks not be the ones to kick off the process, it will be through quantitative easing or moneization of debt.