[hermit]

I've heard that after we recover in 2 years or so, we'll be faced again with spiking oil, followed by another crash. This is expected to play out in 3 years or so.
But the housing/credit bubble has already popped, so I can't see the next slump being as bad as this one. Nonetheless, some say it's going to be worse.

I'd like to hear everyones thoughts on this: When do you expect the next crash, and why? How bad do you expect it to be, and why?
Thanks,
Hermit.

[Leanan]

I was thinking the next crash would be March. Now I'm thinking it might be sooner.

The banking industry is teetering on the brink again.

[vision-master]

Like we ain't in crash mode right now? WTF.

[hermit]

Like we ain't in crash mode right now? WTF.

We are, but it will end. The question is: When's the next one, and will it be worse, or not?

[IgnoranceIsBliss]

If you believe this crash will end in two years, you are in for a surprise. I just don't see how we can pull out of this tailspin. Sure, we can inject gov't money and build some roads and bridges, but then those jobs will vanish as soon as the projects end. Then what?

So assuming (a big leap of faith) that we are able to borrow and spend our way to some kind of recovery (more like a stabilization of current status), the next crash would be when the dollar collapses or stagflation sets in. We are already seeing a great deflation in wages which I think is permanent.

[miskatonic]

Yes it will end. We are not headed for a Mad Max world. Think more like Soylent Green.

[hermit]

Yes it will end. We are not headed for a Mad Max world. Think more like Soylent Green.

Praise the lord and pass the ketchup.

[charliebrownout]

I was thinking the next crash would be March. Now I'm thinking it might be sooner. The banking industry is teetering on the brink again.

Maybe I'm a pessimist, but with BofA and Citi in such bad shape, etc. I just keep thinking, "Well, the day isn't over yet..."

I don't know anything about the market. I just, intuitively, can't see a big rally happening any time soon. I mean, with so many bad moves made and so much lying and cheating...there has to be a comeuppance sometime...right?

[Leanan]

I think, even without the lying, the fundamentals aren't good for stocks. People are losing their jobs, which means they don't have money to invest in stocks, even if they want to.

[AlexdeLarge]

Yes it will end. We are not headed for a Mad Max world. Think more like Soylent Green.

Praise the lord and pass the ketchup.

Tastes like Chicken!

[NoWorries]

Things have the potential to get ugly (ie--civil unrest) within the next 2 years. I'm not a fan of doomerish sentiment, but we must acknowledge that we will likely see:
1) price controls;
2) soup kitchens;
3) unemployment over 15%;
4) massive cuts in defence spending (and corresponding geopolitical instability);
5) dollar collapse? (ie--depreciation of 30-50%).

[bratticus]

Everything tastes like chicken.
Even alligator, if a bit gamey!
Put some hot sauce on it, its all good.
Just dont go talkin about soylent brown!

Humanure?

[Armageddon]

Like we ain't in crash mode right now? WTF.

We are, but it will end. The question is: When's the next one, and will it be worse, or not?

When unemployment hits 50%, retail and malls are vacant and 50% of houses are repo'd, how do you think things will turn around? Where will the money come from? The people are broke, the governments is broke, and foreigners will never lend to the US again. BTW, did you know the US gained its wealth by being at one time, the largest oil producing country in the world? Their wealth is now gone. The US is finished for good. It's time to wake up and face realization.

[bratticus]

BTW, did you know the US gained its wealth by being at one time, the largest oil producing country in the world ?

After that the US kept its wealth by leveraging the discrepancy between it's wealth and the rest of the world's poverty. NAFTA and Globalism.

Plus passing the torch gracefully enough to maintain being the #1 energy consumer:
US -> Saudi Arabia
Texas Railroad Commission -> OPEC

That and a education/technology bubble.

[Armageddon]

The Rothschilds and Europe have stolen the US' real wealth, gold. Now we are stuck with fiat money and bad loans. The world has slowed its lending of money to ths US which will destroy what's left of it. The only thing they can do now is borrow from itself which will cause hyperinflation. The world no longer wants its t-bils. Who can blame them.

[shady28]

The Rothschilds and Europe have stolen the US' real wealth, gold. Now we are stuck with fiat money and bad loans. The world has slowed its lending of money to ths US which will destroy what's left of it. The only thing they can do now is borrow from itself which will cause hyperinflation. The world no longer wants its t-bils. Who can blame them.

I don't know where this hype is coming from, but it is not reflective of reality in the least.

The last 2 weeks of t-bill auctions did indeed have rates rising. But the base from which those rates are coming from is the lowest on record - this indicates tremendous demand for t-bills: link

Dec 29th:

U.S. 6-month T-bill auction has lowest yield ever
The U.S. Treasury said its auction of 6-month bills on Monday brought the lowest yield ever for the maturity, underscoring continued investor demand for the lowest risk assets.
The high yield in the $27 billion sale of the bills was 0.250 percent. Yields on U.S. Treasury debt move inversely to price, and the comparatively low yield underscored to analysts the continued appetite for safe-haven investments.
... Six-month bill yields on the open market <US6MT=RR> were trading near 0.19 percent on Monday, down from just above 5 percent in August 2007, according to Reuters data.

[Armageddon]

China says lending to US will not go on forever
AFP via Yahoo!News:

China warned Wednesday it would not keep lending money to the US economy indefinitely, even as new data showed it had consolidated its position as the top buyer of American government bonds.
"China's increased purchase of US Treasury securities should not be interpreted as an endorsement of the assumption that the US can borrow its way out of the current financial crisis," the China Daily said in an editorial.
The warning from the state-run newspaper, an English-language daily that mainly addresses a foreign audience, came after the US Treasury Department reported a steep increase in Chinese holding of US Treasury bonds.

[Heineken]

There will be a "Credit Crisis II," far worse than "Credit I," because the collapse of the banks is not over the way many want to pretend it is.

It is impossible to overstate how serious the real estate collapse is. We are going to go through another massive wave of defaults leading to a Depression.

[Spanktron9]

Like we ain't in crash mode right now? WTF.

We are, but it will end.The question is: When's the next one, and will it be worse, or not?

When unemployment hits 50%, retail and malls are vacant and 50% of houses are repo'd, how do you think things will turn around? Where will the money come from? The people are broke, the governments is broke, and foreigners will never lend to the US again. BTW, did you know the US gained its wealth by being at one time, the largest oil producing country in the world? Their wealth is now gone. The US is finished for good. It's time to wake up and face realization.

Don't forget our "right place, right time" luck, with WW2. Most of Europe's manufacturing was decimated in the war. If people wanted goods, steel, oil, whatever, they had to buy from US. That ain't happening again.

[bratticus]

The Rothschilds and Europe have stolen the US' real wealth, gold.

Gold is only wealth when everything's neat and tidy and people co-operate and food is in the supermarket, cars are on the road and the lights are on.