[TroyPDX]

So I've come to the party a bit late...perhaps a year ago I started reading Peak Oil and other non-mainstream media sources of information. When you really look at the economic data from an objective viewpoint, you can't come to any other conclusion than we are heading for global collapse. Not only are we at peak oil, but our fiat currencies are failing (as they always do) and closely following the housing bubble will be the credit card bubble, the commercial real estate bubble, and of course the monster time bomb of the unwinding of financial derivatives.

I'm envious of those of you with the foresight to have been planning and prepping for years for the coming hard times. That being said, I can't go back in time and "unspend" all the money I wasted on frivolities and spend it on preps instead. Currently I am saving as much as I can and continuously stocking up on items recommended on other threads in this forum.

I believe that we are very near the edge of an economic free fall and possibly hyper inflation or scarcity in many essential items. Things are bad and getting worse, but I think there will come a moment collectively as a country when a sense of panic begins, when the masses really wake up to what is happening. At that time the shelves will empty with alarming speed. Personally I think when the first really big wave of the unemployed run out of benefits and the states can't extend them anymore because they're broke too, that's when things get ugly. People in this country aren't used to severe hardship, and when a critical mass of them start getting hungry, the anger will rise very quickly.

Anyway, my question is this... at some point it might be necessary to take any preps you need to make up a couple of notches, preferably just before things really hit the fan. You don't want to be behind the curve on this one. I'm talking about selling everything that isn't necessary that isn't tied down. I'm talking about getting some freeze dried food on a credit card if absolutely necessary etc. Basically I think there will come a tipping point and just before that would be the last chance to finalize the preps as best as possible.

I'm probably not the only one who doesn't have a self contained farm off the grid lol... so what are the indicators some of you are watching for to know it's time to pick up a few more things in a hurry? What would it be like just before the populace at large starts to really panic? Would it be the first obvious signs of civil unrest? Would it be a sharp and sudden decline in the dollar reflected in a massive jump in gold prices? (by the way, believe the only reason the dollar is holding up at all right now is that it's a race to the bottom with all the other fiat currencies) Would it be the sudden dumping of US treasuries by foreign nations leading to government insolvency? Would it be the first 'official' month of double digit inflation?

And what would be the last things you would do while the economy is still relatively 'normal'? What are your final preps? And is anyone else already feel a sense of eerie nostalgia as you walk through a fully stocked supermarket?

Thanks in advance for your thoughts, and not to sound horribly ominous, but good luck to us all.

[like_the_dinosaurs]

When the politicians admit we are in a depression but we wont collapse, that's when. I would say when you see riots, crime and homelessness, oh sh$t it's allready here.
lol

Seriously though even if this isn't the crash and we manage to climb out of the abyss, peak oil will come again with a vengence.

[wisconsin_cur]

First welcome.

To the topic the tipping point will probably only be obvious in the rear view mirror. Any given event might turn out to be a tipping point or through a series of competence and luck things may continue for another year or two or five until another event or three appear as a tipping point.

I will believe that we are past it when I have neighbors (I live in a rural area) move into town because they are having difficulty with basic supplies or utilities. Then the bars go on the windows and the family gets their new marching orders.

But if I loose my job tomorrow that could be a personal tipping point. One that leaves me with few options and marks the beginning of a personal descent from which we will not pull out.

The future is open. We do not know what it holds or what good our preparations might result in. I suggest starting today to stack the odds in your favor. Learn a new skill. Change your diet in a more sustainable direction or what ever seems appropriate to you. In the end, all any of us can do is increase out odds and that is a day by day affair.

[Ludi]

is anyone else already feel a sense of eerie nostalgia as you walk through a fully stocked supermarket?

I've always felt that way in supermarkets. Oh my god, can you believe the incredible luxury we take almost completely for granted?

This is an amazing time we're living through.

[Novus]

The social/economic tipping point will come when the dollar collapses and the feds can no longer monetize the debt. At that point it will be mass panic. Social Security, Unemployment checks will bounce, credit cards will stop working, major banks will close and account holders will NOT be reimbursed, State and Local governments will shut down including the police and emergency services. At that point it will be every man for himself. There will be riots which will run unchecked and out of control. It may degrade into all out civil war in the US. When the day of reckoning comes I would not even be surprised if the US nuked its own cities. It would massively reduce the population and destroy most of the records of what was stolen.

[dunewalker]

Welcome, TroyPDX--nice first post. Of course nobody knows for sure quite what or when that "aha" moment will be, but you are as aware as anyone here that it seems to be so close as to be almost palpable. Therefore, the time for expedited action, battening down the hatches, is NOW, no doubt about it. There is no good reason to procrastinate. It's hard to imagine a reason why you would regret it.

[WyoDutch]

I don't have a crystal ball, and I know I'm not smart enough to read the tea leaves with any degree of certainty.

Part of me wants to buy that new pickup, leave the credit cards ride and "party on, dude!"... certain that we'll somehow muddle through all this and come out the other side with a big grin on our face.

The other part is telling me to empty my bank account and keep the cash in the gun safe, next to the couple hundred ounces of silver I bought when Silver Eagles were $9 each... (postage included.) I look at my pantry and wonder if the three-year stock of chow will be enough to keep us alive until we re-learn gardening and herd husbandry. I question if I have enough kerosene and spare mantles for the Aladdin lamps... the list goes on.

I do believe that the storm is almost upon us... but we don't know how bad it will be.

[fiedag]

Currently I am saving as much as I can and continuously stocking up on items recommended on other threads in this forum.
...

I'm talking about getting some freeze dried food...
...

Troy I don't mean to suggest that your preparations aren't worthwhile, but I have always believed that the best preparation for anyone is by forging close relationships with people in your local community, and by being as useful as you can be. Do favours and work your ring off helping others. Since so many posts here advocate looking after #1, I realise I am in the minority with my views.

Survival will be determined on the level of the community, not the individual or the family.

Not every community will fall apart. Some communities will rise to the challenge and be safe, prosperous and happy. They will do this by being inventive, flexible, principled and disciplined.

The libertarian individual such as we find too often on this site, will have no hope.

[Cid_Yama]

I disagree totally.

You need to avoid the "local authorities" with a vengence. They will be the local thugs who come to confiscate what you have for "the greater good." Translated as <b>their</b> greater good.

Seek a sparcely populated area to live and network on a very limited fashion with other individuals carefully selected and not in a collective or community fashion. You are looking for trading partners for goods and services. Others who will provide mutual aid in a limited fashion. The fewer the better. Others will otherwise become a serious liability.

[lper100km]

Good post TroyPDX. I doubt we will actually recognize the tipping point when (hopefully if) it arrives but we will surely be able to look back and pin point it with amazing accuracy. Somewhat like peak oil itself.

[idiom]

For me the tipping point was the Senior Tranches being down-graded and the response to that.

I shutdown my business in Australia and returned to New Zealand.

[ReverseEngineer]

The social/economic tipping point will come when the dollar collapses and the feds can no longer monetize the debt. At that point it will be mass panic. Social Security, Unemployment checks will bounce, credit cards will stop working, major banks will close and account holders will NOT be reimbursed, State and Local governments will shut down including the police and emergency services. At that point it will be every man for himself. There will be riots which will run unchecked and out of control. It may degrade into all out civil war in the US. When the day of reckoning comes I would not even be surprised if the US nuked its own cities. It would massively reduce the population and destroy most of the records of what was stolen.

Stop Whitewashing it Novus and tell us what you REALLY think. Its not good to get the hopes up of new members with this kind of unfounded Optimism. LOL.

Welcome to Doom Central.

Reverse Engineer

[Snowrunner]

I've always felt that way in supermarkets. Oh my god, can you believe the incredible luxury we take almost completely for granted?

Yeah me too. Everybody else I know doesn't notice....

I think this is why most people will be caught with their pants down, not only do they see the luxury in which they are living, but they also fail to see the system that makes it possible to exist in the first place.

I do, I have to admit, at times feel as if I am utterly insane though. I work out of a small little "rental office" space which is used in general by entrepreneurs and contractors.

Many of these people are, obviously, extremely optimistic, I guess they have to be due to their job and the idea that they want to build up something from scratch.

The problem with all this "doomerism" is that it can have the affect to freeze you, especially if you perceive the problem so huge that nothing can stop it.

I guess history will decide who is right, me (and you) or the ones that dream about their own business / ideas and think that it will all work out.

[Thralen]

Back to your actual question. My gut feeling is to watch the news stories. When you see an increase in "crazy stuff", a severe increase (since we've already been increasing in it) then it is time to buy those last preps.

Things to NOT put off until that time. Gun purchases(if you plan to), since you may need to wait a while on getting it. Precious metals (if you plan to invest in having those in hand) since they will skyrocket long before the final stages. On a side note, precious metals will probably be skyrocketing shortly (see this link for an explanation): link

This is what I am gauging my final preps on. Fortunately, I live near a major international airport (about an hour away) that is used by all the shipping companies so my orders for items come in very quickly. If your online or mail order purchases take a while to get to you then you may need to be making yours earlier still.

As a side note, someone will ask... "crazy stuff"? What determines it? If you read a story and the first thing that goes through your mind is WTF? then it may well be crazy stuff. If you read the day's news and half of the stories qualify, it is time to start ordering. Now this means you have to be familiar with "normal" news so you have a basis for comparison. Sorry I can't be more helpful, but that and gut feeling is what I'm using for my gauge.

Thralen

[Daniel_Plainview]

The social/economic tipping point will come when the dollar collapses and the feds can no longer monetize the debt. At that point it will be mass panic. Social Security, Unemployment checks will bounce, credit cards will stop working, major banks will close and account holders will NOT be reimbursed, State and Local governments will shut down including the police and emergency services. At that point it will be every man for himself. There will be riots which will run unchecked and out of control. It may degrade into all out civil war in the US. When the day of reckoning comes I would not even be surprised if the US nuked its own cities. It would massively reduce the population and destroy most of the records of what was stolen.

I concur that the "tipping point" will be the failure of US Treasury auctions. That's when Obama's, Geithner's and Bernanke's smoke & mirrors ponzied house-of-cards will collapse. That is the official "Oh Sh!t" moment that ignites hyperinflation and global meltdown.

It's very obvious that PEL-O(bama)-SI will keep spending money until there is none left (i.e., until sovereign nations have finally had enough and quit squandering their wealth on US treasuries).

[Snowrunner]

I concur that the "tipping point" will be the failure of US Treasury auctions. That's when Obama's, Geithner's and Bernanke's smoke & mirrors ponzied house-of-cards will collapse. That is the official "Oh Sh!t" moment that ignites hyperinflation and global meltdown.

It's very obvious that PEL-O(bama)-SI will keep spending money until there is none left (i.e., until sovereign nations have finally had enough and quit squandering their wealth on US treasuries).

It's very tempting to blame the ones in power right now with the eventual collapse, but I think we should not forget that we all (for a while anyway) benefitted from this ponzi scheme, some more than others, but anybody living in the "West" (and even some living in China) got where they are because of this scheme.

What would you like Obama et. al. do? Stand up and say: "Well, it was all a ruse, we paid you off with money you didn't really had, so now leave the Suburbs and start planting a field"? What do you think the reaction would be?

I cannot see any leader (regardless of what political stripe, charisma and / or leader ability admit to anything like that, not until they are already falling to their death.

[Newfie]

One of the problems we all have is shifting baselines, it impedes problem recognition. What we considered "normal" 5, 10, 20 years ago is no longer normal. If the change is gradual enough you will cope. Evidence of that is all around. Why would you live in Gaza? Or even bordering Gaza? Yet people do, even if they don't need to. That is crazy.

On the other hand bigotry and unfounded fear of forced busing caused the "white flight" of 60's.

Try to identify some touchstones. Maybe even write a description of what they are. Talk to your parents and ask what their vision of "normal" was. Then, when you see that eroding make you own move.

My wife and I have one rule so far.

When we seriously consider picking up a gun to protect ourselves or our property it is time to leave.

I don't mean think of buying a gun. I mean of picking it up and loading the chamber. Guns I have. Ammo I have. Having the sense to not put myself in a position to need them I hope I have.

[patience]

I am seeing this as a process, with milestones along the way. I agree that a significant US dollar devaluation is the next one I dread, and I think that will wake up a lot of people, too late for the knowledge to be of use to them.

I think there is NO BETTER TIME THAN NOW to "do your final preps". Why wait for the last minute? That smacks of a pulp fiction scenario, where the protagonist slides out of town just before it all comes crashing down on the hapless inhabitants. That sort of drama sells books and movies, but it's a crappy way to live. Not for me. I want out long before any appocalypse.

As to the OP question, for the US, the public will sit on their complacent backsides until they are in dire straits, then try to blame it on "somebody" who should "do something". The somebody is THEM, and they should have done "it" years ago--change their lives. This social moment of truth could be anything, but one of the most likely is a major $ devaluation, IMHO, causing many basic needs to be priced out of reach. I think that would do it.

Panic is a very poor strategy, but if you must panic, do it before everybody else does it. Bottom line, GET OUT OF THE WAY, and DO IT NOW!

[IgnoranceIsBliss]

I have the same feeling about the supermarkets. Lately it seems to me that the stores are really empty around here, much more than usual on weekdays during the day when I shop. Yesterday the grocery store was empty and last week Target was too. Kind of eerie. Everytime I go out, I see another empty retail store and more "going out of business sale" signs.

When I read postings and articles on this site, it's kind of surreal. I sit here looking out the window at a beautiful, cold and sunny day, & everything seems normal. But then I read stories about people lining up for job fairs days in advance in Miami and California issuing IOUs and it becomes clear that certain areas of the US are just powder kegs waiting to blow.

My parents have a good amount of land in FL and they think that we will just go down to them "if things get bad" (when is that?), but I'm not sure that will even be possible. I think by the time we realize it's time for worst case scenerio actions, it will be too late. The highways will be jammed, no gas, ATMS out of wack, criminal elements running in the streets and so on. There could be road blocks or whatever. It's only about 8 hours from here to there, but we usually drive the beltway around Atlanta. I would definately take a back road and stay far away from the city. But I think it will be a lot more dangerous on the roads than here at home for sure, so I would probably stay put because I can't time it perfectly. (we can't just abandon our house and job here right now, but heck, maybe we should!)

Does anyone honestly think the news media will cover a t-bill action failure in a such a way that J6P understands the urgency? I think there will be some kind of muzzling so as not to cause a panic. Then Obama will go on TV or something to tell us to "stay at our desks" like on 9/11. That speech will definately be a very bad sign that it's too late...

[mos6507]

When we seriously consider picking up a gun to protect ourselves or our property it is time to leave.

To where? Right now we're in an economic doomsday, not a peak oil doomsday, and it's one that is cutting pretty evenly across the entire world.