[TheDude]

M. Höök, R. Hirsch, K. Aleklett

Conclusions
Based on a comprehensive database of giant oil field production data, we estimated the average decline rates of the world’s giant oil fields that are beyond their plateau phase. Since there are large differences between land and offshore fields and non-OPEC and OPEC fields, separation into different subclasses was necessary. In order to obtain a realistic forecast of future giant field decline rates, the subclasses were treated separately to better reflect their different behaviours. Thus, our average total decline rate for post-plateau giant fields of 6.5% and CERA's overall 6.3% are in good agreement, and our 5.5% production-weighted giant field decline rate compares reasonably with IEA's 6.5% and CERA's 5.8% (Table 10). Offshore fields decline faster than land fields, and OPEC fields decline slower than non-OPEC fields. There are small differences in the data sets and definitions between the studies, but the results from these three studies can be considered approximately equivalent.

More confirmation on the decline rate. Noteworthy that CERA and ASPO are basically on the same page here.

[Plantagenet]

This is a very important research paper on peak oil. It was discussed on "TheOilDrum" several days ago.

The authors demonstrate that giant fields that peaked in the 60s and 70s and 80s have lower decline rates then fields that peaked in the 90s and 2000s, because the modern techniques of drilling and field development (horizontal drilling N injection, water floods, etc.) tend to maximize production right up to the peak, and leave proportionally less behind to be recovered after the peak is passed then used to be the case.

Cantarell declined >30% just in the last year. This suggests that when Ghawar and the remaining giant fields start to decline, they are going to decline very quickly.

[FireJack]

Peak oil kind of went to the back burner for me for a bit with the giant drop in prices and the huge drop in demand but it really looks like its going to nail us while the economy is still down. Its going to be one never ending hole from now on I guess.

[rangerone314]

Peak oil kind of went to the back burner for me for a bit with the giant drop in prices and the huge drop in demand but it really looks like its going to nail us while the economy is still down. Its going to be one never ending hole from now on I guess.

"Its going to be one never ending hole from now on" is about the best way I've heard to describe the intersection of peak oil with our current economic trouble. We may be burning less oil now that the economy is down, but we are still burning too much.

Instead of driving towards the cliff at 70 MPH, we are driving to the cliff at 65 MPH!

One thing to consider is how much worse the economy will be when the US debt collapses things further from being unserviceable. The dollar will be gone from currency reserves, the T-bills will be purchased by China etc, and the interest on the debt will exceed the Federal income from taxes.

[sparky]

.

The oil producers dilemma ,
how to get more value out of existing infrastructures
to produce more and damn the price ? to cut output and cut one own throat
the solution ...pump at the OPEC level ( more or less ) and spend nothing on future prospects

The result is going to be dire , a boom and bust cycle moderated by those extra Saudi barrels
as long as they last , therein is the question

I have no answers

.

[shortonoil]

TheDude, about 10 years ago Daquing peaked out with a 98% water cut. CNPC brought it back into production by pumping in huge amounts of emulsifiers. I always figured that elephant might just go tits-up one day because of it. Have you heard any scuttlebutt about problems there?

Of course the Chinese are saying there is a zillion barrels there to pump for a thousand years - or something. That may just be a consequence of taking, “how to run an oil field”, lessons from the Saudis.

"We will maintain our annual crude oil output at 40 million tons in the next 10 years," said Wang Yongchun, Party secretary of Daqing oilfield. "Sustainable production of Daqing is important to China's oil supply."(snip)

Crude output of CNPC, China's largest oil and gas producer, is expected to fall below 2008 level this year due to weakening demand, said Yu Baocai, vice-president of the company.
The demand is lower than last year and it is natural to have a lower output, Yu
said.

Hmmm?
rigzone