Pops wrote:Wow!
Who would have guessed?
ReverseEngineer wrote:Without income derived from exports, exactly how they will get enough food onto those islands to keep feeding the population is quite difficult to figure.
Japan's exports plunged 45.7% in January compared with a year ago to hit the lowest figure in 10 years, official figures have shown.
Imports exceeded exports by 952.6bn yen ($9.9bn; £6.8bn). It is the largest gap since records began in 1980.
Year GDP Decline % Net Worth Net Worth decline
‘08 5.9 423.5 26.5
‘09 6.3 396.8 26.5
‘10 6.7 370.3 26.5
‘11 7.1 343.9 26.5
Net Worth in trillions $
shortonoil wrote: The world is now entering a 16 year period of declining GDP. The chart below gives the economic contraction that can be expected for the next four years and the world’s decline in net worth that will result:
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Year GDP Decline % Net Worth Net Worth decline
‘08 5.9 423.5 26.5
‘09 6.3 396.8 26.5
‘10 6.7 370.3 26.5
‘11 7.1 343.9 26.5
Net Worth in trillions $
Cid_Yama wrote:shortonoil,
Your view of economic collapse is very orderly. I suspect it will not be nearly so orderly or smooth in its transition.
More like you will be FRAKED!!!!! then FRAKED!!!!!! again, then lots of screaming, bleeding, starving, fighting off others trying to take what you have left.
If you prepare your mind for this, its stll bad news but its not something you have no options or no defense against. There have been many occassions in human history of very awful times, the Plague years in Europe were no picnic obviously. So now we go through one of these times again, albeit on abigger scale. It still doesn't have to mean the end of civilization though. It might just be a New Beginning, a Rebirth. Painful yes, but you can't make an Omellette without Breaking a Few Eggs.
Reverse Engineer]
Your view of economic collapse is very orderly. I suspect it will not be nearly so orderly or smooth in its transition.
Short is just running numbers based on his Available Energy model. He's not commenting on the social implications of said model.
bencole wrote:If you prepare your mind for this, its stll bad news but its not something you have no options or no defense against. There have been many occassions in human history of very awful times, the Plague years in Europe were no picnic obviously. So now we go through one of these times again, albeit on abigger scale. It still doesn't have to mean the end of civilization though. It might just be a New Beginning, a Rebirth. Painful yes, but you can't make an Omellette without Breaking a Few Eggs.
Reverse Engineer]
I think your fogetting the fact that the world has at its disposal a nuclear arsenal that can utterly destroy most of modern day civilization. This fact is differentiates the present age from the past, and is also quite inconvenient for doomers who believe they can survive any large scale breakdown of social order.
Battle_Scarred_Galactico wrote:Nuclear war is not certain at all, if you honestly believe it is what are you even doing here posting Bencole ?
The nuclear war point is not particularly relevent
Only have control over my doomstead. When push comes to shove, the people MOST likely to survive are those who are dug in, with ample supplies, food, defense & preparation in general.
Does the fact there might be a nuclear war or zombie hordes mean they should not make preparations? NO.
When everything goes down, I'm going to either fight and win, or fight and lose.
NEWSFLASH! We are ALL going to die, regardless of peak oil preparations. I'd just rather die of old age, then being one of the clueless, wandering zombies who starves to death.
ReverseEngineer wrote:Pops wrote:Wow!
On a smaller scale, Japan's Overshoot problem is even worse than China. 127,288,416 people jammed onto islands with a total area of 145,840 square miles, for a population density of 872.5 people per square mile. Ouch. China comes in at 350 people per square mile. Without income derived from exports, exactly how they will get enough food onto those islands to keep feeding the population is quite difficult to figure.
Can you IMAGINEwhat happens when Japan goes the way of Iceland. Not a pretty picture.
Reverse Engineer
sihmei wrote:Japan is doomed, massively exceeding its carrying capacity, huge overpopulation, little resources. Ultimately the only option will be the option they took in the 30's and 40's - war.
World (year end)
Year GDP Decline % Net Worth Yrly NW Decline
‘08 5.9 1956.5 115.4
‘09 6.3 1841.1 115.4
‘10 6.7 1725.1 115.4
‘11 7.1 1609.5 115.4
* Net Worth in trillion
* All figures at year end
“It’s back to the same old concern,” said John Carey, who oversees $10 billion at Boston-based Pioneer Investment Management. “The jury is still out on whether there’s going to be any equity value in these financial companies.”
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