[TheSeeker]

Rank these events in order of when they'll happen, from first to last:

1.) World coal production peaks
2.) Oil goes above $200/barrel
3.) Arctic Ocean is ice-free in summer
4.) Human population peaks
5.) More than half of Americans live in self-sufficient small towns or on farms
6.) Air travel drops to below 10% of today's levels
7.) World oil production is less than half of today's levels
8.) Year 2014
9.) Year 2019
10.) Year 2029

[TheSeeker]

why?

Because I'm interested in seeing what people here think.

[Schmuto]

I think it's a cool question.

I'm just not feeling motivated right now.

[Daniel_Plainview]

Rank these events in order of when they'll happen, from first to last:

1.) World coal production peaks
2.) Oil goes above $200/barrel
3.) Arctic Ocean is ice-free in summer
4.) Human population peaks
5.) More than half of Americans live in self-sufficient small towns or on farms
6.) Air travel drops to below 10% of today's levels
7.) World oil production is less than half of today's levels
8.) Year 2014
9.) Year 2019
10.) Year 2029

I'm utterly convinced that Year 2029 will happen first.

[xarkz]

1. Year 2014
2. Oil goes above $200/barrel
3. Arctic Ocean is ice-free in summer
4. Year 2019
5. World coal production peaks
6. Year 2029
7. World oil production is less than half of today's levels
8. Human population peaks
9. Air travel drops to below 10% of today's levels
10. More than half of Americans live in self-sufficient small towns or on farms

[cephalotus]

2.) Oil goes above $200/barrel
8.) Year 2014
9.) Year 2019
3.) Arctic Ocean is ice-free in summer
10.) Year 2029
7.) World oil production is less than half of today's levels
4.) Human population peaks
1.) World coal production peaks
6.) Air travel drops to below 10% of today's levels
5.) More than half of Americans live in self-sufficient small towns or on farms

[vtsnowedin]

8.) Year 2014
2.) Oil goes above $200/barrel)
4.) Human population peaks
6.) Air travel drops to below 10% of today's levels
7.) World oil production is less than half of today's levels
9.)Year 2019
1.) World coal production peaks
10.) Year 2029
5.) More than half of Americans live in self-sufficient small towns or on farms
3.) Arctic Ocean is ice-free in summer

[Dukkha]

I like reading this forum - from time to time - but this thread highlights just what's wrong with it. Take the first item on the list: The peak in coal extraction. Predicting this is a fearsomely complicated business. I've no idea when it's going to happen and I suspect that most of those who answer have no better idea than I have, yet answers are happily thrown out without any justification at all. If you're interested in carrying out some kind of sociological investigation into doomerism, then I guess it's a reasonable question but otherwise, I have no idea what the value of this kind of idle, groundless speculation is.

[vtsnowedin]

I like reading this forum - from time to time - but this thread highlights just what's wrong with it. Take the first item on the list: The peak in coal extraction. Predicting this is a fearsomely complicated business. I've no idea when it's going to happen and I suspect that most of those who answer have no better idea than I have, yet answers are happily thrown out without any justification at all. If you're interested in carrying out some kind of sociological investigation into doomerism, then I guess it's a reasonable question but otherwise, I have no idea what the value of this kind of idle, groundless speculation is.

Its the first of March and two feet of snow lies on the garden so yes we are just shooting the breeze. The list and the ways that some switch it around reveal points of disagreement and open avenues of discussion. For example its a given that the year 2014 will be before 2019 but will the price of oil top $200 before or after 2014? I think that the depression will be deep and long enough to push that beyond 2014.
On the other end having the Arctic ocean ice free is a far cry from just having the NW and NE passages open a few weeks in late summer in warm years. Winters will always be long dark and cold so getting to a "ice free" Arctic ocean in my view is still a long ways off and is the least of our problems.

[Schmuto]

2.) Oil goes above $200/barrel
8.) Year 2014
9.) Year 2019
7.) World oil production is less than half of today's levels
4.) Human population peaks
6.) Air travel drops to below 10% of today's levels
1.) World coal production peaks
10.) Year 2029

Never (America will be kaput before this happens) . . .
5.) More than half of Americans live in self-sufficient small towns or on farms

and who cares . . .
3.) Arctic Ocean is ice-free in summer

I'm fairly comfortable with the order.

[Ferretlover]

Seeker, why do you assume that only one situation will happen at a time, or that things will occur in any particular order?

[bodigami]

2.) Oil goes above $200/barrel

6.) Air travel drops to below 10% of today's levels

3.) Arctic Ocean is ice-free in summer

8.) Year 2014

4.) Human population peaks

9.) Year 2019

10.) Year 2029

1.) World coal production peaks

7.) World oil production is less than half of today's levels

5.) More than half of Americans live in self-sufficient small towns or on farms

[bodigami]

I like reading this forum - from time to time - but this thread highlights just what's wrong with it. Take the first item on the list: The peak in coal extraction. Predicting this is a fearsomely complicated business. I've no idea when it's going to happen and I suspect that most of those who answer have no better idea than I have, yet answers are happily thrown out without any justification at all. If you're interested in carrying out some kind of sociological investigation into doomerism, then I guess it's a reasonable question but otherwise, I have no idea what the value of this kind of idle, groundless speculation is.

From a practical economic and social standpoint we've 'peaked,' because we are already on a long plateau of stalled oil production since around 2005.

We know that the supergiant and giant fields are in decline (6.7% see EIA), we know new discoveries lag production by a margin of 1:4 or so (have for two decades), and we know any short-term future production growth will maintained by few low (relatively)-eroei fields (African/Brazilian/GOM deep water, Arctic?, shale formation, etc.) that (due to new production methods) will exhibit catastrophic declines when their time comes (see Cantarell, Yibal, North Slope, etc.) We are also witness to strange pertubations of a complex high-energy-input social/industrial/financial system possibly approaching a tipping point. A sign of limits.

Future specific geologic production Peak will be unknowable, a consequence of multiple interrelated factors (geologic, methodologic, economic, chronologic, etc.) Do we measure all liquids including biofuels, processing gain, NGLs etc. without considering real net-fuel gains from each process? How long does economic decline stretch peak? Or does it? Maybe decline makes outlying fields too costly to produce?

Welcome to the new paradigm--CHAOS

It's Peak Coal not Peak Oil.

[VMarcHart]

Rank these events in order of when they'll happen, from first to last:

I predict --no, make that I'm positive--, year 2014 will come before year 2019, and in its turn, before year 2019.

[VMarcHart]

...answers are happily thrown out without any justification at all.

Check this out: http://peakoil.com/psychology/bold-predictions-t48365.html